Southampton vs QPR
Southampton cruise past QPR with commanding win
Matsuki and Bragg lead the charge in a dominant display at St Mary's.
Southampton secured a convincing 4-1 victory over QPR in the Championship, with K. Matsuki opening the scoring early on and Cameron Bragg adding to the tally after the break. K. Schlotterbeck further extended the lead before R. Kone pulled one back for QPR, but Welington sealed the win deep into stoppage time. Fipster's prediction of a Southampton win was spot on, though the actual scoreline was even more emphatic than the forecasted 3-0.
Outcome probability
Southampton and QPR face off in what promises to be a one-sided affair, with Southampton looking to extend their dominance in this fixture.
Match factors
Southampton's Defensive Passing Edge
K. Schlotterbeck's superior passing accuracy (86%) and volume outmatches typical defenders, aiding build-up play.
J. Bree's Recent Goal Impact
J. Bree has scored in recent matches, adding offensive threat from defense, boosting Southampton's scoring chances.
QPR's Midfield Defensive Work
H. Vale leads QPR with 1.75 tackles per game, above league average, helping disrupt Southampton's attacks.
Southampton Missing Key Midfielder F. Downes
Flynn Downes is confirmed out, weakening midfield defensive stability and ball recovery for Southampton.
QPR Doubtful Midfielder R. Burrell
Rumarn Burrell is doubtful; if fit, could provide attacking creativity but uncertainty caps impact probability.
The context
Both teams sit close in the league table, with Southampton ranked 9th and QPR 10th, each on 17 points from 11 games. However, Southampton boast a significantly better goal difference, highlighting their more effective attack and defence so far this season.
Key insights
- K
K. Schlotterbeck
Southampton
Exceptional passing accuracy (86%) and high pass volume help Southampton build attacks from the back.
Championship 26/2786% passing accuracy, avg 68 passes per game
- J
J. Bree
Southampton
Recent goal contributions add an extra attacking threat from defence, boosting Southampton's scoring chances.
Championship 26/27Strong defensive duels win rate over 60%, recent goal scorer
- D
Daniel Peretz
Southampton
Consistent goalkeeper with high passing accuracy (74%) contributes to Southampton's defensive stability.
Championship 26/2774% passing accuracy, 11 appearances
- H
H. Vale
QPR
Top tackler for QPR with 1.75 tackles per game, disrupting Southampton's midfield play.
Championship 26/271.75 tackles per game, 88% passing accuracy
- R
R. Burrell
QPR
Doubtful status limits QPR's attacking creativity potential if he misses out.
Championship 26/27Moderate yellow card rate, assist potential if fit
Analysis
Southampton have a strong head-to-head record against QPR, winning 7 of their last 8 encounters. Their defensive solidity is bolstered by goalkeeper Daniel Peretz, whose consistent performances and passing accuracy contribute to the team's stability. Defenders K. Schlotterbeck and J. Bree offer both defensive resilience and offensive threat, with Bree recently adding goals to his game. QPR's midfield disruptor H. Vale will try to break up play, but the absence of Southampton's key midfielder Flynn Downes weakens their midfield balance. QPR's Rumarn Burrell is doubtful, limiting their attacking options. The predicted 3-0 scoreline reflects Southampton's ability to control the game and convert chances efficiently.
Key facts
- 1.Southampton have won 7 of 8 head-to-head matches against QPR.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.9 total goals.
- 3.Southampton are ranked 9th with 17 points from 11 games.
- 4.QPR are ranked 10th with 17 points from 11 games.
- 5.Southampton have a significantly better goal difference (+8) than QPR this season.
Prediction
Expect Southampton to take an early lead by halftime, likely 1-0, and then extend their advantage to a comfortable 3-0 victory by fulltime. The match should see moderate discipline with around four cards shown.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Southampton
Away — QPR
The verdict
Southampton's combination of solid defence, effective passing, and recent goal-scoring form should see them comfortably dispatch QPR. The visitors will need to overcome injury doubts and midfield challenges to mount any serious resistance.
Prediction generated 24 Oct 2026, 16:03 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Matsuki
Bragg
Assist: Manning
Poku
Vale
Schlotterbeck
Assist: Manning
Kone
Assist: Dembélé
Varane
Yellow Card
Ward-Prowse
Smyth
Kemper
Adamson
Yellow Card
Dunne
Yellow Card
Matsuki
Dobbin
Kamara
Manning
Bragg
Welington
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 25 |
| 7 |  West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 21 |
| 8 |  Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +12 | 20 |
| 9 |  QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
Match Statistics
Southampton
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 3R. ManningD
- 5J. StephensD
- 7Léo ScienzaM
- 10F. AzazM
- 11L. DobbinF
- 13K. SchlotterbeckD
- 14J. BreeD
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 27K. MatsukiM
- 30J. Ward-ProwseM
Substitutes
- 4F. DownesM
- 6Z. AbbottD
- 15N. Wood-GordonD
- 18T. FellowsM
- 23S. EdozieM
- 25G. LongG
- 28D. MubamaF
- 34WelingtonD
QPR
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1P. CharlesG
- 2K. AdamsonD
- 3J. DunneD
- 5R. EdwardsD
- 11P. SmythF
- 12B. KemperD
- 17K. PokuM
- 18G. KamaraM
- 20H. ValeM
- 22R. KoneF
- 40J. VaraneM
Substitutes
- 6J. Clarke-SalterD
- 7K. DembéléM
- 10I. ChairM
- 13C. WardG
- 14K. SaitoF
- 15A. LloydF
- 19D. CirkinD
- 23I. AlemayehuM
- 26Rayan Jawad KolliF
Southampton
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Schlotterbeck | D | 90 | 8.4 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| R. Manning | D | 92 | 8.2 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1/1 |
| Cameron Bragg | M | 91 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| K. Matsuki | M | 86 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Léo Scienza | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3/5 |
| J. Ward-Prowse | M | 75 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Stephens | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Mubama | F | 3 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bree | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Daniel Peretz | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Downes | M | 15 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Dobbin | F | 87 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| S. Edozie | M | 4 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Azaz | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| T. Fellows | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Long | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Welington | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Abbott | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Wood-Gordon | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
QPR
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Kone | F | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| A. Lloyd | F | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Charles | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Smyth | F | 76 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | — |
| G. Kamara | M | 87 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| K. Saito | F | 31 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Varane | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Edwards | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. Poku | M | 59 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| B. Kemper | D | 76 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Dunne | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| K. Adamson | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. Dembélé | M | 31 | 5.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| D. Cirkin | D | 14 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Chair | M | 3 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Vale | M | 59 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| C. Ward | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Clarke-Salter | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Alemayehu | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayan Jawad Kolli | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Southampton vs QPR?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Southampton to win against QPR.
- What score did Fipster predict for Southampton vs QPR?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Southampton 3–0 QPR.
- What were the win probabilities for Southampton vs QPR?
- Fipster's model gave Southampton a 95% chance of winning, QPR a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.