Southampton vs Bolton
Southampton and Bolton settle for stalemate
A goalless draw frustrates expectations at St Mary's.
Southampton and Bolton played out a 0-0 draw in the Championship, a result that defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 4-1 home win. Neither side could find the net, leaving fans with a tight, uneventful contest rather than the goal fest anticipated.
Outcome probability
Southampton and Bolton face off in the 11th round of the regular season, with both sides eager to climb the league table. Southampton currently sit 13th with 13 points from 9 games, while Bolton are just behind in 14th with 13 points from 10 games. This match promises attacking football, but the stats suggest a clear favourite.
Match factors
Southampton's superior scoring form at home
Southampton averages 3.2 goals per home game, well above Bolton's 1.2 away scoring rate, supporting predicted 4-1 scoreline.
Southampton's midfield creativity vs Bolton's defense
Midfielder F. Azaz's high creativity and recent assists pose a threat to Bolton's defense, which concedes 2.2 goals away on average.
Bolton's key attacker Samuel Dalby in good recent form
Dalby scored 2 goals in last 5 games, showing ability to break through Southampton's defense despite overall team struggles.
Southampton missing midfielder Cameron Bragg due to suspension
Bragg's absence reduces midfield depth but Southampton's strong squad compensates, maintaining attacking threat.
The context
Southampton have shown strong form at home, averaging over three goals per game, while Bolton have struggled to find the net on the road, scoring just over one goal per away match. Both teams have similar points totals, but Southampton's superior goal difference and attacking output give them the edge heading into this fixture.
Key insights
- F
F. Azaz
Southampton
F. Azaz's high creativity and recent assists pose a significant threat to Bolton's defence, which concedes heavily away from home.
Championship 26/27Multiple assists and goals in recent home fixtures, high recent ratings up to 9.0
Samuel Dalby
Bolton
Samuel Dalby is in good recent form, scoring 2 goals in the last 5 games, making him Bolton's key offensive threat.
Championship 26/273 goals in 9 appearances, 0.33 goals/game
Analysis
The prediction heavily favours a Southampton win, with a likely halftime score of 2-0 and a fulltime score of 4-1. Southampton's midfield creativity, led by F. Azaz, poses a significant threat to Bolton's defence, which concedes an average of 2.2 goals away from home. Bolton's top scorer Samuel Dalby has been in decent form, but it may not be enough to stem the tide against a potent Southampton attack. The expected total of four cards suggests a competitive but controlled encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Southampton are 13th in the league with 13 points from 9 games (W5 D2 L2).
- 2.Bolton are 14th with 13 points from 10 games (W4 D1 L5).
- 3.Southampton have a significantly better goal difference, scoring 13 goals this season.
- 4.Southampton average 3.2 goals per home game, Bolton score 1.2 goals per away game.
- 5.Bolton concede an average of 2.2 goals per away match.
- 6.Samuel Dalby is Bolton's top scorer with 3 goals this season.
- 7.F. Azaz is a key creative midfielder for Southampton with multiple assists and goals recently.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
Expect Southampton to take control early, establishing a 2-0 lead by halftime. They should continue to press in the second half, extending their advantage to a 4-1 victory. Bolton may get a consolation goal, but Southampton's attacking prowess and home advantage should see them comfortably through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Southampton
No standout top scorers flagged for Southampton
Away — Bolton
The verdict
Southampton's superior scoring form and midfield creativity make them the clear favourites to secure all three points. Bolton will need to tighten up defensively and find a way to contain key players like F. Azaz if they are to avoid a heavy defeat. Ultimately, the stats and form point to a confident Southampton win.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 20:39 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Larin
Famewo
Yellow Card
Fellows
Ito
Bragg
Yellow Card
Gale
Simons
Dalby
Bragg
Welington
Brunt
Yellow Card
Bair
Yellow Card
Matsuki
Yellow Card
Larrazabal
Stephenson
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 25 |
| 7 |  West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 21 |
| 8 |  Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +12 | 20 |
| 9 |  QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
Match Statistics
Southampton
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 5J. StephensD
- 7Léo ScienzaM
- 9C. LarinF
- 10F. AzazM
- 13K. SchlotterbeckD
- 14J. BreeD
- 18T. FellowsM
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 30J. Ward-ProwseM
- 34WelingtonD
Substitutes
- 3R. ManningD
- 6Z. AbbottD
- 8C. JanderM
- 11L. DobbinF
- 15N. Wood-GordonD
- 23S. EdozieM
- 25G. LongG
- 27K. MatsukiM
- 28D. MubamaF
Bolton
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4X. SimonsM
- 5L. BruntD
- 8J. SheehanM
- 10S. DalbyF
- 11T. GaleM
- 14A. FamewoD
- 17A. ItoM
- 18E. ToalD
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalM
- 27Luca StephensonD
- 31G. BazunuG
Substitutes
- 1J. BonhamG
- 6B. DaviesD
- 7K. DongF
- 9T. BairF
- 16S. Iling-JuniorF
- 20Ruben RodriguesF
- 21E. ErhahonM
- 25M. ConwayD
- 39R. HardieF
Southampton
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Schlotterbeck | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Peretz | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Edozie | M | 17 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Léo Scienza | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| T. Fellows | M | 46 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Ward-Prowse | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| K. Matsuki | M | 44 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Stephens | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bree | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| Welington | D | 73 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| R. Manning | D | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Cameron Bragg | M | 73 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Larin | F | 41 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| F. Azaz | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| L. Dobbin | F | 49 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Z. Abbott | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Jander | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Long | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Wood-Gordon | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Mubama | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bolton
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruben Rodrigues | F | 44 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| G. Bazunu | G | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Gale | M | 61 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| L. Brunt | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Dalby | F | 73 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| E. Toal | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| K. Dong | F | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| E. Erhahon | M | 29 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. Bair | F | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| A. Ito | M | 46 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Iling-Junior | F | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gaizka Larrazabal | M | 87 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 0/2 |
| Luca Stephenson | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| X. Simons | M | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Sheehan | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Famewo | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Conway | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bonham | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Hardie | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Davies | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Southampton vs Bolton?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Southampton to win against Bolton.
- What score did Fipster predict for Southampton vs Bolton?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Southampton 4–1 Bolton.
- What were the win probabilities for Southampton vs Bolton?
- Fipster's model gave Southampton a 85% chance of winning, Bolton a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.