Sheffield Utd vs Derby
Derby snatch draw at Sheffield Utd
B. Clark's first-half strike earns Derby a point despite Bamford's reply.
Derby took the lead through B. Clark's 37th-minute goal, only for Sheffield Utd's P. Bamford to level the score in the 79th minute, resulting in a 1-1 draw. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 3-1 home win, as Sheffield Utd were held to a share of the spoils on home turf.
Outcome probability
Sheffield Utd and Derby face off in the 12th round of the regular season, with both sides eager to improve their league standings. Sheffield Utd currently hold a better position and have shown more consistency in recent matches.
Match factors
Sheffield Utd's defensive absences weaken backline
Key defenders Seriki, Choudhury, and Shackleton are confirmed out, reducing defensive stability.
Sheffield Utd's midfield passing outperforms league average
Sydie Peck's passing accuracy and volume exceed league averages, boosting team creativity.
Sheffield Utd's recent scoring streak at home
The team has scored in 4 of last 5 home games, supporting predicted 3 goals.
Derby's defensive injury woes hamper resistance
Derby missing key defenders including Langås, weakening defensive solidity against Sheffield's attack.
Sheffield Utd's attacking players showing strong recent form
T. Cannon and P. Bamford have recent goals and high match ratings, likely to lead scoring.
The context
Sheffield Utd rank 15th with 12 points from 10 games, while Derby sit 23rd with 6 points. Historically, Sheffield Utd have dominated this fixture, winning 9 of the 13 meetings against Derby. The average goals per game in their encounters is 2.6, suggesting a lively contest.
Key insights
- S
Sydie Peck
Sheffield Utd
Sydie Peck's passing accuracy and volume exceed league averages, boosting Sheffield Utd's creativity.
Championship 26/27Passing accuracy at 75% with 25.1 passes per game, above league average for midfielders.
- T
T. Cannon
Sheffield Utd
T. Cannon's recent goal contributions and high match ratings make him a key attacking threat.
Championship 26/27Recent match rating of 8.13 with multiple shots per game and goal contributions.
- H
H. Choudhury
Sheffield Utd
Choudhury's recent red card and suspension weaken Sheffield Utd's defensive stability.
Championship 26/27High tackles per game (2.4+) but currently suspended due to red card.
Analysis
Sheffield Utd's midfield creativity, led by Sydie Peck with a passing accuracy well above the league average, provides a clear attacking edge. Derby's defensive struggles, compounded by key absences, contrast with Sheffield's attacking form, including recent goal contributions from T. Cannon. Defensive absences on both sides may open up the game, but Sheffield's home advantage and superior form make them favourites.
Key facts
- 1.Sheffield Utd have won 9 of 13 meetings against Derby.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.6 goals per game.
- 3.Sheffield Utd rank 15th with 12 points from 10 games.
- 4.Derby rank 23rd with 6 points from 10 games.
- 5.Sheffield Utd have scored in 4 of their last 5 home games.
- 6.Derby are missing key defenders, weakening their backline.
- 7.Sydie Peck's passing accuracy is 75%, well above the league average for midfielders.
- 8.T. Cannon has recent goal contributions and a high match rating.
Prediction
The forecast is a Sheffield Utd victory with a halftime lead of 1-0 and a fulltime score of 3-1. The match is expected to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. Sheffield Utd's attacking players are likely to make the difference, capitalising on Derby's defensive vulnerabilities.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sheffield Utd
Away — Derby
The verdict
In summary, Sheffield Utd's stronger league position, historical dominance, and current form suggest they will secure a 3-1 win over Derby. Derby will need to tighten their defence and find attacking inspiration to challenge this prediction.
Prediction generated 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Fipster Model v1.164
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Nyambe
Yellow Card
Clark
Sanderson
Yellow Card
Arblaster
Choudhury
Kitching
Yellow Card
Sanderson
Red Card
Cannon
Brereton
Szmodics
Brewster
Meister
Peck
Yellow Card
Bamford
Assist: Donovan
Bamford
Ward
Clark
Yellow Card
Ozoh
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 25 |
| 9 |  QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -17 | 5 |
Match Statistics
Sheffield Utd
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. CooperG
- 4O. ArblasterM
- 5J. TangangaD
- 8H. ChoudhuryD
- 9T. CannonM
- 14H. BurrowsD
- 15L. KitchingD
- 19T. ChongM
- 22B. BreretonM
- 27K. PhillipsM
- 45P. BamfordF
Substitutes
- 3S. McCallumD
- 7J. RothwellM
- 10J. AyewF
- 11R. DonovanM
- 23T. CampbellF
- 33J. BaptisteM
- 38F. SerikiD
- 42Sydie PeckM
Derby
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
- 4D. OzohM
- 8B. ClarkM
- 9C. MorrisF
- 10R. BrewsterM
- 11S. SzmodicsM
- 19H. MeisterM
- 23J. WardD
- 24R. NyambeD
- 26R. HedgesD
- 28D. SandersonD
Substitutes
- 13F. BilbijaM
- 14J. RobinsonD
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 16M. FuseiniF
- 20A. MowattM
- 22M. JohnstonD
- 29O. FrauloM
- 31J. VickersG
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
Sheffield Utd
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Bamford | F | 81 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. Donovan | M | 23 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1/2 |
| K. Phillips | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| T. Campbell | F | 9 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Tanganga | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| M. Cooper | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Arblaster | M | 57 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| F. Seriki | D | 33 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/3 |
| H. Choudhury | D | 57 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| T. Chong | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/5 |
| H. Burrows | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Ayew | F | 23 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Sydie Peck | M | 33 | 6.4 | — | — | 4 | 2 | — | — |
| B. Brereton | M | 67 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/2 |
| T. Cannon | M | 67 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| L. Kitching | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| S. McCallum | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Rothwell | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Baptiste | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Derby
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Widell Zetterström | G | 90 | 8.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Clark | M | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0/2 |
| S. Szmodics | M | 73 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| D. Ozoh | M | 95 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| J. Robinson | D | 17 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Ward | D | 81 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| M. Johnston | D | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Nyambe | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Salvesen | F | 9 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Fraulo | M | 17 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Brewster | M | 73 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Morris | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| D. Sanderson | D | 66 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Meister | M | 73 | 6.1 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| R. Hedges | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| A. Mowatt | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Fuseini | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Blackett-Taylor | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Vickers | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Bilbija | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sheffield Utd to win against Derby.
- What score did Fipster predict for Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Sheffield Utd 3–1 Derby.
- What were the win probabilities for Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
- Fipster's model gave Sheffield Utd a 95% chance of winning, Derby a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.