Sevilla vs Real Madrid
Match recap
Real Madrid beat Sevilla 1–0 in their La Liga fixture. Vinícius Júnior scored for Real Madrid. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.73 for Sevilla versus 1.03 for Real Madrid. Sevilla sit 13th in the La Liga table while Real Madrid are 2nd.
Analysis
As the La Liga season nears its climax, Sevilla host Real Madrid in what promises to be a compelling encounter. With both teams eager to finish strong, the match offers plenty of intrigue, especially given the contrasting fortunes and injury lists.
Sevilla sit 12th with 43 points, struggling for consistency, while Real Madrid are comfortably placed 2nd with 80 points. The visitors boast a +39 goal difference compared to Sevilla's -12, highlighting their superior offensive and defensive capabilities. Both sides face injury concerns, but Real Madrid's depth and form give them the edge.
Real Madrid's attack, led by Vinícius Júnior with 15 goals and excellent recent away form, looks poised to trouble Sevilla's defence, which has been vulnerable at home. Sevilla's top scorer Akor Adams, despite injury doubts, remains a threat but lacks the support due to other absences. Real Madrid's midfield creativity is hampered by injuries to key players like Güler and Valverde, yet their overall quality and recent 68.6% win rate away from home suggest they will prevail.
Prediction
We predict a 2-1 away win for Real Madrid, with a halftime score of 0-1 reflecting their early dominance. The match is expected to be competitive, with a total of around four cards due to the high stakes and intensity. Confidence in this outcome is very high at 95%, supported by statistical and form-based evidence.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Sevilla's Attack Weakened by Injuries
Key attackers Ejuke, Adams, Isaac, and Sánchez are injured or doubtful, reducing scoring options.
Real Madrid Missing Key Players
Mbappé, Rodrygo, Valverde, Militão, and Güler are injured, impacting attack and midfield creativity.
Real Madrid's Superior Scoring Rate
Real Madrid averages 2 goals per game vs Sevilla's 1.3, indicating offensive advantage.
Sevilla's Defensive Vulnerabilities at Home
Sevilla concedes 1.3 goals at home and has multiple defensive injuries, exploitable by Real Madrid.
Real Madrid's Strong Recent Form
Real Madrid has a 68.6% win rate and positive recent streaks, boosting confidence for away win.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Real Madrid's superior form, goal-scoring prowess, and tactical advantage on the road should see them edge past Sevilla. While the hosts will fight hard, the visitors' quality and momentum make them the clear favourites to take all three points.
- Sevilla are 12th with 43 points from 36 games (W12 D7 L17).
- Real Madrid are 2nd with 80 points from 36 games (W25 D5 L6).
- Real Madrid have a +39 goal difference; Sevilla have -12.
- Real Madrid average 2.22 points per game; Sevilla average 1.19.
- Vinícius Júnior has scored 15 goals with strong recent away form.
- Akor Adams is Sevilla's top scorer with 10 goals but injury doubts persist.
- Real Madrid have a 68.6% win rate in recent matches.
- Sevilla concede 1.3 goals per home game, showing defensive vulnerabilities.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sevilla
Away — Real Madrid
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Vinícius Júnior
Gudelj
Yellow Card
Maupay
Vargas
Gudelj
Pitarch
José Ángel Carmona
Tchouaméni
Vinícius Júnior
Díaz
Oso
Sánchez
Yellow Card
Juanlu Sánchez
Yellow Card
Bellingham
Agoumé
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | +59 | 94 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | +42 | 86 |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | +26 | 72 |
| 12 |  Athletic Club | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | -15 | 45 |
| 13 |  Sevilla | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | -14 | 43 |
| 14 |  Alaves | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | -12 | 43 |
Match Statistics
Sevilla
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 2José Ángel CarmonaD
- 4Kike SalasD
- 6N. GudeljM
- 9A. AdamsF
- 11R. VargasM
- 12G. SuazoD
- 17N. MaupayF
- 20D. SowM
- 32Andrés CastrínD
- 36OsoM
Substitutes
- 3César AzpilicuetaD
- 5T. NianzouD
- 7IsaacF
- 8Joan JordánM
- 10A. SánchezF
- 13Ø. NylandG
- 14Peque FernándezF
- 15Fábio CardosoD
- 16Juanlu SánchezM
- 18L. AgouméM
- 19B. MendyM
- 21C. EjukeF
Real Madrid
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1T. CourtoisG
- 2Dani CarvajalD
- 5J. BellinghamM
- 7Vinícius JúniorF
- 10Kylian MbappéF
- 14A. TchouaméniM
- 20Fran GarcíaD
- 21Brahim DíazF
- 22A. RüdigerD
- 24D. HuijsenD
- 45Thiago PitarchM
Substitutes
- 4D. AlabaD
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 16Gonzalo GarcíaF
- 17Raúl AsencioD
- 18Álvaro FernándezD
- 29J. Navarro JimenezG
- 30Franco MastantuonoF
- 43Sergio MestreG
- 46Ávaro LeivaF
Sevilla
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andres Castrin | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Kike Salas | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Djibril Sow | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| José Ángel Carmona | D | 70 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| Oso | M | 78 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Odysseas Vlachodimos | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Suazo | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Akor Adams | F | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/5 |
| Ruben Vargas | M | 54 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Neal Maupay | F | 53 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Nemanja Gudelj(C) | M | 54 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| César Azpilicueta | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ørjan Nyland | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Peque Fernández | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Batista Mendy | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tanguy Nianzou | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fábio Cardoso | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joan Jordán | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucien Agoumé | M | 36 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Chidera Ejuke | F | 36 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Isaac Romero | F | 12 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Juanlu Sánchez | M | 20 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Alexis Sánchez | F | 37 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
Real Madrid
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thibaut Courtois | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dean Huijsen | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vinicius Júnior | F | 77 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/5 |
| Dani Carvajal(C) | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Jude Bellingham | M | 87 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Antonio Rüdiger | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | M | 70 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Fran García | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brahim Díaz | F | 77 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/4 |
| Thiago Pitarch | M | 70 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 0/4 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Alvaro Leiva | F | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javier Navarro Jimenez | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Alaba | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dani Meso | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergio Mestre | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Carreras | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raúl Asencio | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Franco Mastantuono | F | 20 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | D | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eduardo Camavinga | M | 20 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo García | F | 13 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |