Seattle Sounders vs San Diego
Match recap
Seattle Sounders and San Diego drew 1–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Musovski scored for Seattle Sounders; Ingvartsen replied for San Diego. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.53 for Seattle Sounders versus 1.86 for San Diego. Seattle Sounders sit 7th in the Major League Soccer table while San Diego are 12th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-1 Seattle Sounders win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
Seattle Sounders and San Diego face off in what promises to be an entertaining regular season clash. With Seattle currently sitting higher in the league standings and boasting a better goal difference, they look poised to assert their dominance.
Match factors
Seattle missing key scorer Paul Rothrock
Rothrock is out with tendon injury, removing a 5-goal threat this season
Joveljić's strong away scoring form
Joveljić has 3 goals in last 5 away games, likely to exploit San Diego defense
Rusnák's creative dominance for Seattle
Rusnák leads with 11 assists and 4 in last 5, key to Seattle's attacking chances
Dreyer's recent goal and assist form for San Diego
Dreyer has 4 goals and 2 assists in last 5 games, driving San Diego attack
Morris doubtful but key for Seattle's assists
Morris doubtful, capped assist probability; if fit, strong chance to assist
The context
Seattle Sounders hold 7th place with 41 points, comfortably ahead of San Diego who are 12th with 32 points. The teams have met three times this season, each winning once with a draw in between, setting the stage for a decisive encounter.
Key insights
Dejan Joveljić
San Diego
Joveljić has been clinical away with 3 goals in his last 5 games, making him a key threat against Seattle.
Major League Soccer 26/274 goals in 5 appearances, 0.8 goals/game
Albert Rusnák
Seattle Sounders
Rusnák's creativity is vital, leading with 11 assists this season and 4 in the last 5 games, driving Seattle's attack.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 assists in 27 appearances, 0.41 assists/game
Anders Laustrup Dreyer
San Diego
Dreyer's recent form is impressive with 4 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games, spearheading San Diego's offensive efforts.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals and 12 assists in 27 appearances, 0.41 goals/game and 0.44 assists/game
Analysis
Seattle's attacking threat is led by Daniel Musovski, who scored in their last fixture, while Albert Rusnák's creative spark with 11 assists this season makes him a key playmaker. San Diego's top scorer Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen, with 12 goals, and Anders Laustrup Dreyer, contributing both goals and assists recently, will look to challenge Seattle's defence. However, Seattle's superior goal difference (+3 compared to San Diego's -3) and stronger league position suggest they have the edge.
Key facts
- 1.Seattle Sounders are 7th in the league with 41 points, ahead of San Diego in 12th with 32 points.
- 2.Seattle has a better goal difference (+3) than San Diego (-3) this season.
- 3.The teams have each won once and drawn once in three head-to-head matches this season.
- 4.Daniel Musovski scored for Seattle in the last fixture, highlighting his offensive threat.
- 5.Albert Rusnák leads Seattle with 11 assists this season, including 4 in the last 5 games.
- 6.Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen is San Diego's top scorer with 12 goals this season.
- 7.Anders Laustrup Dreyer has contributed 4 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games for San Diego.
- 8.Seattle is predicted to receive 4 cards in the match, indicating a competitive encounter.
Prediction
The forecast is a confident home win for Seattle Sounders, with a commanding 4-1 scoreline. The predicted halftime lead of 2-0 aligns with their strong attacking form, and a total of four cards is expected, reflecting a competitive but controlled match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Seattle Sounders
Away — San Diego
The verdict
Seattle Sounders appear set to continue their strong season with a convincing victory over San Diego. Their attacking depth and league standing give them a clear advantage, making this a match to watch for fans of decisive football.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 09:51 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Ingvartsen
Assist: Valakari
Ferreira
Yellow Card
Brunell
Yellow Card
Roldan
Yellow Card
Kossa-Rienzi
Brunell
Tolo
Pellegrino
Mighten
Yellow Card
Verhoeven
Yellow Card
Musovski
Assist: Roldan
Vazquez
Bombino
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | +15 | 46 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 42 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -9 | 40 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -5 | 34 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 |
Match Statistics
Seattle Sounders
4-4-2Starting XI
- 5N. ToloD
- 7C. RoldanM
- 9J. FerreiraM
- 11A. RusnákF
- 13J. MorrisF
- 14P. RothrockM
- 16A. RoldanD
- 25J. RagenD
- 26A. ThomasG
- 37S. BrunellM
- 85K. Kossa-RienziD
Substitutes
- 17P. ArriolaF
- 19D. MusovskiF
- 20Kim Kee-HeeD
- 24S. FreiG
- 31H. DotsonM
- 35A. LopezD
- 45P. KingstonM
- 90S. GomezM
- 95O. De RosarioF
San Diego
4-3-3Starting XI
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 8O. ValakariM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 18D. FerreeG
- 19D. VazquezM
- 20A. GodoyM
- 26M. DuahD
- 27L. BombinoD
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 97C. McVeyD
Substitutes
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 15P. SomaM
- 22W. EisnerD
- 25I. PilcherD
- 29A. SaidiF
- 70A. AlvaradoF
- 77A. MightenF
- 98J. JacksonG
Seattle Sounders
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Ragen | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Albert Rusnák | F | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 8 | 1/1 |
| Cristian Roldán(C) | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1/1 |
| Alex Roldán | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Jesús Ferreira | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Snyder Brunell | M | 63 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Andrew Thomas | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nouhou Tolo | D | 65 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Paul Rothrock | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Jordan Morris | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| Kalani Kossa-Rienzi | D | 63 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Paul Arriola | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefan Frei | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kim Kee-hee | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hassani Dotson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osaze De Rosario | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sebastian Gomez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Musovski | F | 27 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Antino Lopez | D | 25 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Peter Kingston | M | 27 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
San Diego
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Ingvartsen | F | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 5 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Duran Ferree | G | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Onni Valakari | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Manu Duah | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Luca Bombino | D | 87 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aníbal Godoy(C) | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Christopher McVey | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anders Dreyer | F | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1/1 |
| David Vazquez | M | 86 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Oscar Verhoeven | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Amahl Pellegrino | F | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jacob Jackson | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Soma | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anisse Saidi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian Pilcher | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wilson Eisner | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bryan Zamblé | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kieran Sargeant | D | 9 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Mighten | F | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Alejandro Alvarado Jr | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Seattle Sounders vs San Diego?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Seattle Sounders to win against San Diego.
- What score did Fipster predict for Seattle Sounders vs San Diego?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Seattle Sounders 4–1 San Diego.
- What were the win probabilities for Seattle Sounders vs San Diego?
- Fipster's model gave Seattle Sounders a 95% chance of winning, San Diego a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.