Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo sneak past Seattle Sounders
Lucas Halter's first-half strike secures a narrow away win.
In a surprising twist, Houston Dynamo edged out Seattle Sounders 1-0 thanks to Lucas Halter's goal in the 26th minute. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction favouring a comfortable Seattle win, the Dynamo held firm to claim all three points in a tight contest.
Outcome probability
Seattle Sounders and Houston Dynamo face off in the 32nd round of the regular season, with Seattle looking to leverage their home advantage and recent form to secure a vital win.
Match factors
Seattle missing key attacker Rothrock
Paul Rothrock is confirmed out with hamstring injury, reducing Seattle's attacking options
Guilherme leads Houston's attack with prolific scoring
Guilherme has 15 goals this season, significantly above league average for attackers
Seattle's Joveljić in strong recent scoring form
Joveljić has 4 goals in 7 games with high scoring rate, key to Seattle's predicted goals
Seattle's midfield creativity led by Rusnák and Roldan
Rusnák has 10 assists and Roldan 5 goals this season, driving Seattle's attacking play
Houston's Bogusz provides secondary scoring threat
Bogusz has 8 goals and good recent form, complementing Guilherme's attack
The context
Seattle Sounders currently sit 7th in the league with 42 points, while Houston Dynamo are slightly ahead in 5th place with 47 points. Historically, Seattle have dominated this fixture, winning 14 of their 19 encounters against Houston, with an average of 2.1 goals per match between them.
Key insights
Dejan Joveljić
Seattle Sounders
Joveljić's recent form is impressive, scoring 4 goals in 7 games, making him a key attacking threat at home.
Major League Soccer 26/274 goals in 7 appearances, 0.57 goals/game
Guilherme
Houston Dynamo
Guilherme leads Houston's attack with 15 goals this season, a significant scoring figure in the league.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 28 appearances, 0.54 goals/game
Albert Rusnák
Seattle Sounders
Rusnák is Seattle's main creative force with 10 assists, though his doubtful status may impact the team's creativity.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 assists in 28 appearances, 0.36 assists/game
Cristian Roldan
Seattle Sounders
Roldan provides consistent goal threat from midfield with 5 goals, adding leadership and stability.
Major League Soccer 26/275 goals in 22 appearances, 0.23 goals/game
Mateusz Bogusz
Houston Dynamo
Bogusz offers a valuable secondary scoring option with 8 goals and good recent form.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals in 27 appearances, 0.30 goals/game
Analysis
Seattle's attacking threat is spearheaded by Dejan Joveljić, who boasts a strong recent scoring run with 4 goals in 7 games, making him a key figure in their predicted three-goal haul. Midfield creativity from Cristian Roldan and Albert Rusnák, who together have contributed 15 goals and 15 assists this season, will be crucial, although Rusnák's doubtful status could slightly hamper their playmaking. Houston's Guilherme leads their attack with 15 goals, supported by Mateusz Bogusz's secondary scoring threat. Despite this, Seattle's home form and tactical setup suggest they will edge out Houston with a 3-1 victory.
Key facts
- 1.Seattle Sounders have won 14 of 19 matches against Houston Dynamo.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.1 goals, with Seattle scoring 30 and Houston 10.
- 3.Seattle Sounders rank 7th with 42 points from 30 games.
- 4.Houston Dynamo rank 5th with 47 points from 30 games.
- 5.Dejan Joveljić has scored 4 goals in 7 appearances this season.
- 6.Guilherme leads Houston with 15 goals in 28 appearances.
- 7.Cristian Roldan has contributed 5 goals in 22 appearances for Seattle.
- 8.Albert Rusnák has 10 assists in 28 appearances, though is doubtful for this match.
Prediction
We expect Seattle Sounders to lead 1-0 at halftime and extend their advantage to a 3-1 fulltime win. The match is likely to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Seattle Sounders
Away — Houston Dynamo
The verdict
Seattle Sounders look well placed to continue their strong head-to-head record against Houston Dynamo. With key players in form and home advantage on their side, a 3-1 victory seems the most probable outcome.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 04:39 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Halter
Assist: Bogusz
Tolo
Ferreira
Dotson
Kossa-Rienzi
Kingston
Yellow Card
Foster
Samassékou
Roldan
Ibrahim
Resch
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | +40 | 64 |
| 4 |  St. Louis City | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | +10 | 51 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 51 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | +13 | 47 |
| 9 |  Colorado Rapids | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | -1 | 43 |
| 10 |  Seattle Sounders | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 42 |
Match Statistics
Seattle Sounders
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5N. ToloD
- 7C. RoldanM
- 9D. JoveljićF
- 11A. RusnákM
- 16A. RoldanD
- 25J. RagenD
- 26A. ThomasG
- 27J. FerreiraM
- 31H. DotsonM
- 85K. Kossa-RienziD
- 90S. GomezM
Substitutes
- 4R. SailorD
- 8C. ClarkM
- 13J. MorrisF
- 17P. ArriolaF
- 20Kim Kee-HeeD
- 24S. FreiG
- 37S. BrunellM
- 39S. HawkinsD
- 45P. KingstonM
Houston Dynamo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 6ArturM
- 9L. FosterF
- 11L. EnnaliD
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 19M. BoguszM
- 21F. NegriD
- 24A. IbrahimM
- 30A. BouzatM
- 31J. BondG
- 34A. ReschD
Substitutes
- 3Antônio CarlosD
- 14D. HolmesM
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 22M. AranaM
- 23D. McGuireF
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 35Logan ErbG
- 37G. RiveraM
Seattle Sounders
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Roldan | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Rusnák | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 5 | — |
| J. Ferreira | M | 59 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| S. Brunell | M | 31 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Roldan | D | 85 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Ragen | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| H. Dotson | M | 59 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| N. Tolo | D | 46 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| P. Arriola | F | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Joveljić | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| P. Kingston | M | 31 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| J. Morris | F | 31 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| S. Gomez | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| K. Kossa-Rienzi | D | 59 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Thomas | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Clark | M | 5 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Frei | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Hawkins | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Sailor | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kim Kee-Hee | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Houston Dynamo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Halter | D | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| J. Bond | G | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Bogusz | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| F. Negri | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antônio Carlos | D | 7 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Ennali | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Artur | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Holmes | M | 3 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Resch | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Samassékou | M | 83 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Ibrahim | M | 87 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/6 |
| D. McGuire | F | 18 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| A. Bouzat | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Foster | F | 72 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| B. Gillingham | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Arana | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Logan Erb | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Rivera | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Markanich | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Seattle Sounders to win against Houston Dynamo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Seattle Sounders 3–1 Houston Dynamo.
- What were the win probabilities for Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo?
- Fipster's model gave Seattle Sounders a 95% chance of winning, Houston Dynamo a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.