Scotland vs Slovenia
Match recap
Slovenia beat Scotland 2–1 in their UEFA Nations League fixture. Christie scored for Scotland; Matko and Šturm replied for Slovenia. Scotland held 54% possession to 46% for Slovenia.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-2 Slovenia win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
This League B fixture sees Scotland and Slovenia face off in what promises to be a closely contested match. Scotland took an early lead, but Slovenia's resilience and attacking prowess suggest they could turn the tables by full time.
Match factors
Slovenia's midfield duo Matko and Šturm dominate attack
Matko and Šturm combine for 3 goals and 4 assists in 4 games, forming a potent attacking partnership
Slovenia's superior recent away scoring form
Slovenia averages 1 goal per away game with positive scoring streak, outpacing Scotland's home scoring
Scotland's Christie shows promising scoring form
Christie scored in last home fixture and has 1 goal in 3 games, key to Scotland's attack
Billy Gilmour's creative passing key for Scotland
Gilmour's 85% passing accuracy and 1 assist in 4 games make him Scotland's main playmaker
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, ensuring strongest lineups and tactical plans
The context
Both teams have played four matches in this competition so far. Scotland have a record of one win, one draw, and two losses, scoring three goals and conceding five. Slovenia have fared slightly better with two wins, one draw, and one loss, netting five goals and conceding three. Their previous meeting ended with Slovenia winning 2-1 away at Scotland, adding an intriguing edge to this encounter.
Key insights
Aljoša Matko
Slovenia
Matko is both top scorer and assister for Slovenia, with 2 goals and 2 assists in 4 games, making him a key creative and finishing threat.
UEFA Nations League 26/272 goals and 2 assists in 4 appearances
Danijel Šturm
Slovenia
Šturm complements Matko well, contributing 1 goal and 2 assists in 4 games, and holds the highest rating in Slovenia’s recent away win.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal and 2 assists in 4 appearances
Billy Gilmour
Scotland
Gilmour’s 85% passing accuracy and 1 assist in 4 games make him Scotland’s main creative hub in midfield.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 assist in 4 appearances, 85% passing accuracy
Analysis
Slovenia's midfield duo, Aljoša Matko and Danijel Šturm, have been instrumental in their attacking success, combining for three goals and four assists in four games. Matko, in particular, stands out as both top scorer and assister for Slovenia, boasting a high match rating in recent fixtures. Scotland's creative efforts largely revolve around Billy Gilmour, whose impressive passing accuracy and assist tally make him a key playmaker. Despite Scotland's early lead, Slovenia's superior away scoring form and attacking partnerships suggest they have the edge to clinch the win.
Key facts
- 1.Slovenia have played 4 matches in this competition (W2 D1 L1, GF 5 / GA 3).
- 2.Scotland have played 4 matches in this competition (W1 D1 L2, GF 3 / GA 5).
- 3.In 2 head-to-head meetings, Scotland have won 1, Slovenia have won 0, with 1 draw.
- 4.Slovenia won the last meeting 2-1 away at Scotland.
- 5.The most probable full-time score is Slovenia 2, Scotland 1.
- 6.Halftime score prediction is Slovenia leading 1-0.
- 7.Slovenia's Aljoša Matko has 2 goals and 2 assists in 4 games.
- 8.Billy Gilmour leads Scotland with 1 assist and 85% passing accuracy.
Prediction
We anticipate Slovenia to overturn the halftime deficit and secure a 2-1 victory. The predicted halftime score is 0-1 in favour of Slovenia, consistent with their strong away performances. This outcome aligns with the statistical probabilities favouring an away win and the most likely scoreline of 2-1.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Scotland
Away — Slovenia
The verdict
In summary, while Scotland showed promise early on, Slovenia's attacking quality and recent form make them the favourites to take all three points. Fans can expect a competitive match with Slovenia edging it by a narrow margin.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:06 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Janža
Yellow Card
Christie
Assist: McBurnie
McGinn
Yellow Card
Zec
Yellow Card
Matko
Assist: Šturm
Welsh
McBurnie
Binks
Yellow Card
Šturm
Assist: Matko
Christie
Doak
Vipotnik
Zabukovnik
Yellow Card
McGinn
Matko
Celar
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 |  Albania | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Belarus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Italy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Match Statistics
Scotland
3-5-1-1Starting XI
- 1A. GunnG
- 3A. RobertsonM
- 4L. BinksD
- 5S. WelshD
- 7J. McGinnM
- 8B. GilmourM
- 9O. McBurnieF
- 11R. ChristieM
- 13J. HendryD
- 17B. DoakM
- 19L. FergusonM
Substitutes
- 2A. HickeyD
- 6J. DoigD
- 10R. UreF
- 12L. KellyG
- 14L. MillerM
- 15J. McPakeF
- 16Findlay CurtisF
- 18L. GrahamD
- 20K. BowieF
- 21S. BainG
- 22N. PattersonD
- 23Kristi MontgomeryM
Slovenia
5-4-1Starting XI
- 1J. OblakG
- 2Ž. KarničnikD
- 4M. ZabukovnikM
- 6J. BijolD
- 13E. JanžaD
- 15D. ŠturmM
- 17D. ZecD
- 18Z. VipotnikF
- 20A. MatkoM
- 22A. ČerinM
- 23D. BrekaloD
Substitutes
- 3J. BalkovecD
- 5S. KuzmićD
- 7J. UrbančičD
- 8S. LovrićM
- 9T. BegićF
- 10T. ElšnikM
- 11Ž. CelarF
- 12M. VidovšekG
- 14T. SvetlinM
- 16I. VekičG
- 19T. HorvatM
- 21V. DrkušićD
Scotland
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Christie | M | 72 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/3 |
| L. Ferguson | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Hendry | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| O. McBurnie | F | 66 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| S. Welsh | D | 66 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. McPake | F | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| A. Hickey | D | 24 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Findlay Curtis | F | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| L. Binks | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Gunn | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Bowie | F | 24 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| R. Ure | F | 3 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Robertson | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. McGinn | M | 87 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| B. Gilmour | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| B. Doak | M | 73 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| L. Kelly | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Doig | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Patterson | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kristi Montgomery | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Graham | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Miller | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Bain | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Slovenia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Šturm | M | 90 | 8.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1/3 |
| A. Matko | M | 89 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Bijol | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| J. Oblak | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Brekalo | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| A. Čerin | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Ž. Karničnik | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ž. Celar | F | 11 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Zec | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Kuzmić | D | 1 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Vipotnik | F | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Zabukovnik | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| E. Janža | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| I. Vekič | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Horvat | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Vidovšek | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Drkušić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Balkovec | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Elšnik | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Lovrić | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Begić | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Svetlin | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Urbančič | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Scotland vs Slovenia?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Slovenia to win against Scotland.
- What score did Fipster predict for Scotland vs Slovenia?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Scotland 1–2 Slovenia.
- What were the win probabilities for Scotland vs Slovenia?
- Fipster's model gave Scotland a 11% chance of winning, Slovenia a 78% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 78% confidence — a high-confidence call.