SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg
Eggestein's strike seals Freiburg win
A solitary goal at Paderborn hands Freiburg a narrow victory.
SC Freiburg edged out SC Paderborn 07 with a single goal from M. Eggestein in the first half at 26 minutes. Despite Fipster's low-confidence prediction favouring a home win, the visitors managed to hold on for the three points, defying expectations and leaving Paderborn empty-handed.
Outcome probability
The new Bundesliga season kicks off with SC Paderborn 07 facing SC Freiburg in what promises to be an intriguing encounter. Both teams are eager to start their campaigns on a positive note, with Paderborn newly promoted and Freiburg looking to build on last season's solid finish.
Key facts
- 1.SC Paderborn 07 are newly promoted to the Bundesliga this season.
- 2.SC Freiburg finished 7th in the Bundesliga last season with 47 points from 34 games.
- 3.Paderborn have a better goal difference (6 goals) than Freiburg from their respective last seasons.
- 4.Freiburg have made notable summer signings: M. Backhaus and Y. Engelhardt.
- 5.J. Manzambi departed Freiburg during the summer transfer window.
- 6.The predicted halftime score is 1-0 in favour of Paderborn.
- 7.The most likely fulltime scoreline is 2-1 to Paderborn.
- 8.Three total cards are expected in the match.
The context
SC Paderborn 07 enter this fixture as the newly promoted side, stepping up to face SC Freiburg, who finished seventh in the Bundesliga last season with 47 points from 34 games. Freiburg have made some summer signings, including M. Backhaus and Y. Engelhardt, while losing J. Manzambi. Paderborn, meanwhile, have yet to make notable transfers ahead of this opener.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — SC Paderborn 07
Away — SC Freiburg
Analysis
The prediction leans towards a home win for Paderborn, with a 39% chance, making it the most probable outcome despite the limited match history between these sides. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, supported by a halftime lead of 1-0. While Freiburg have a points-per-game advantage from last season, Paderborn's superior goal difference in their respective competitions hints at their attacking potential. The match is expected to be competitive, with three cards predicted, suggesting a lively contest.
Prediction
Expect SC Paderborn 07 to take an early lead and hold on to secure a 2-1 victory over SC Freiburg. The halftime scoreline of 1-0 aligns with this outcome, indicating a tight first half before Paderborn extends their advantage. Freiburg will push back, but Paderborn's resilience should see them through.
The verdict
This season opener sets the tone for both teams, with Paderborn aiming to prove their mettle in the top flight and Freiburg looking to maintain their strong Bundesliga presence. A 2-1 win for Paderborn would be a statement of intent, signalling a promising campaign ahead for the promoted side.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Eggestein
Curda
Yellow Card
Suzuki
Yellow Card
Philippe
ter Horst
Yellow Card
Lienhart
Yellow Card
Engelhardt
Yellow Card
Ulrich
Scherhant
Beste
Pieringer
Suzuki
Engelhardt
ter Horst
Hansen
Scheller
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SC Freiburg | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 9 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 14 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Match Statistics
SC Paderborn 07
3-5-2Starting XI
- 5S. CastañedaM
- 9R. PhilippeF
- 15N. NollG
- 17L. CurdaM
- 18M. PieringerF
- 21J. ter HorstD
- 22M. HansenD
- 23R. ObermairM
- 25T. SchellerD
- 28L. UlrichM
- 40G. VidovićM
Substitutes
- 1M. SchubertG
- 3Jonah Benedict StickerM
- 6T. BaackM
- 7O. Batista MeierM
- 8L. ĐurićM
- 24N. MohrM
- 27S. TiggesF
- 29C. LippmannD
- 30S. MarinoF
SC Freiburg
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. BackhausG
- 3P. LienhartD
- 7D. ScherhantM
- 8M. EggesteinM
- 14Y. SuzukiM
- 16Y. EngelhardtM
- 19J. BesteM
- 28M. GinterD
- 29P. TreuD
- 31I. MatanovićF
- 33J. MakengoD
Substitutes
- 17L. KüblerD
- 21F. MüllerG
- 22Cyriaque Kalou IriéF
- 27Berkay YilmazD
- 30C. GünterD
- 32V. GrifoM
- 37M. RosenfelderD
- 42K. GotoF
- 43I. OgbusD
SC Paderborn 07
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Scheller | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Hansen | D | 89 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| S. Castañeda | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| M. Pieringer | F | 82 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| N. Noll | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Philippe | F | 46 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. Ulrich | M | 74 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | 3 | — |
| J. ter Horst | D | 82 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| R. Obermair | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Jonah Benedict Sticker | M | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Marino | F | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| N. Mohr | M | 1 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Tigges | F | 44 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| G. Vidović | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/4 |
| L. Curda | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| O. Batista Meier | M | 16 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Đurić | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Baack | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Schubert | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Lippmann | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
SC Freiburg
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Eggestein | M | 90 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| M. Ginter | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| P. Treu | D | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Backhaus | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Suzuki | M | 82 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| Berkay Yilmaz | D | 8 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Kübler | D | 16 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Scherhant | M | 74 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| V. Grifo | M | 16 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Beste | M | 74 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| P. Lienhart | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Matanović | F | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2/4 |
| J. Makengo | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| K. Goto | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Engelhardt | M | 82 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Rosenfelder | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Ogbus | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Günter | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Müller | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cyriaque Kalou Irié | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
- Fipster's AI model predicted SC Paderborn 07 to win against SC Freiburg.
- What score did Fipster predict for SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
- Fipster predicted a final score of SC Paderborn 07 2–1 SC Freiburg.
- What were the win probabilities for SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
- Fipster's model gave SC Paderborn 07 a 41% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 41% confidence — a low-confidence call.