SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV
Paderborn clinch narrow win over Hamburg
R. Philippe's late strike seals a tight contest in the Bundesliga.
SC Paderborn 07 edged out Hamburger SV 1-0 thanks to R. Philippe's decisive goal in the 88th minute. The match was a closely fought affair with the breakthrough coming late in the game. Fipster's prediction of a home win was on the money, albeit with a slightly different scoreline.
Outcome probability
SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV face off in the seventh round of the regular season, both looking to climb the league table. With Paderborn sitting 15th and Hamburg 13th, this match promises a tight contest with plenty at stake.
Match factors
Hamburger SV missing key attackers
Confirmed absences of P. Daka and A. Grønbæk weaken HSV's attacking options significantly
SC Paderborn's defensive solidity relies on Hansen and Scheller
Hansen and Scheller exceed league averages in tackles and passing, crucial for home win prediction
S. Tigges shows strong recent scoring form
Tigges scored and assisted in recent away fixtures with high match ratings, boosting Paderborn's attack
Paderborn's midfield defensive work to disrupt HSV's attack
Castañeda and Curda's tackling and interceptions above league average may limit HSV's creative midfielders
The context
Paderborn have struggled for consistency with just one win, one draw, and three losses, while Hamburg have two wins but also three defeats. Despite Hamburg's slightly better points tally, Paderborn boast a superior goal difference, hinting at a more potent attack or tighter defence.
Key insights
- S
S. Tigges
SC Paderborn 07
Tigges has been a key attacking threat with multiple goals and assists in recent matches, boosting Paderborn's chances.
Bundesliga 26/27High match ratings (7.61, 8.1) in recent games
- M
M. Hansen
SC Paderborn 07
Hansen's tackling and interceptions exceed league averages, crucial for Paderborn's defensive stability.
Bundesliga 26/27Tackles per game (2.2) and interceptions (10) exceed league defender averages
- T
T. Scheller
SC Paderborn 07
Scheller's passing accuracy and duel wins help maintain Paderborn's defensive strength.
Bundesliga 26/27Passing accuracy (86%) and average passes per game (55.8) above league defender average
- S
S. Castañeda
SC Paderborn 07
Castañeda's high passing accuracy and defensive work disrupt Hamburg's midfield creativity.
Bundesliga 26/27High passing accuracy (83%) and defensive contribution above league average
- N
N. Capaldo
Hamburger SV
Capaldo leads Hamburg in tackles and interceptions, providing defensive stability despite team's struggles.
Bundesliga 26/27Leads team in tackles (3.4 per game) and interceptions (12)
Analysis
Paderborn's defensive duo, Hansen and Scheller, stand out with tackling and passing stats above league averages, providing a backbone for the home side. Midfielder Castañeda's high passing accuracy and defensive work could disrupt Hamburg's rhythm. On the attacking front, Tigges has been in fine form, contributing goals and assists recently. Hamburg, meanwhile, face a blow with key attackers Daka and Grønbæk ruled out, which may blunt their offensive threat despite Capaldo's defensive efforts and Muheim's creativity.
Key facts
- 1.SC Paderborn 07 are 15th with 4 points from 5 games (W1 D1 L3)
- 2.Hamburger SV are 13th with 6 points from 5 games (W2 D0 L3)
- 3.Paderborn have a better goal difference (+6) than Hamburg this season
- 4.Key Hamburg attackers P. Daka and A. Grønbæk are ruled out
- 5.Defenders M. Hansen and T. Scheller excel in tackles and passing for Paderborn
- 6.Midfielder S. Castañeda shows high passing accuracy (83%) and defensive contribution
- 7.Forward S. Tigges has strong recent scoring form with high match ratings
- 8.Modal total cards predicted is 4 for this match
Prediction
The forecast leans towards a home win for Paderborn, with a 2-1 scoreline the most likely outcome. While the prediction is cautious due to limited head-to-head data and close probabilities for other results, Paderborn's defensive solidity and attacking momentum give them the edge in this encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — SC Paderborn 07
Away — Hamburger SV
The verdict
Expect a competitive match where Paderborn's defensive resilience and recent attacking form could just tip the scales. Hamburg will need to overcome their absences and find a way to break down a disciplined home side to avoid defeat.
Prediction generated 17 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · Fipster Model v1.164
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Fábio Vieira
Poulsen
Vidović
Nandja
Yellow Card
ter Horst
Yellow Card
Tigges
ter Horst
Ulrich
Nadir
Muheim
Marino
Sambi Lokonga
Yellow Card
Philippe
Assist: Götze
Emerson Stange
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 17 |
| 10 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 |  Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 9 |
| 12 |  1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
Match Statistics
SC Paderborn 07
3-5-2Starting XI
- 5S. CastañedaM
- 15N. NollG
- 17L. CurdaM
- 21J. ter HorstD
- 22M. HansenD
- 23R. ObermairM
- 25T. SchellerD
- 27S. TiggesF
- 28L. UlrichM
- 30S. MarinoF
- 40G. VidovićM
Substitutes
- 1M. SchubertG
- 2Ruben MüllerD
- 3Jonah Benedict StickerD
- 6T. BaackM
- 9R. PhilippeF
- 11S. MichelF
- 18M. PieringerF
- 20F. GötzeD
- 38D. ZeitlerF
Hamburger SV
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
- 3D. Møller WolfeM
- 4B. NadirM
- 5M. AdelineM
- 7Z. El OuahdiM
- 15Y. PoulsenF
- 17W. OmariD
- 20Fábio VieiraF
- 28M. MuheimM
- 33S. BornauwD
- 43S. NandjaD
Substitutes
- 6A. Sambi LokongaM
- 9T. MoffiF
- 11A. GrønbækM
- 12S. TangvikG
- 19Otto Emerson StangeF
- 22Kofi Jeremy AmoakoM
- 37L. LemkeD
- 38Alexander Røssing-LelesiitF
- 48J. Bissi MouelleD
SC Paderborn 07
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Scheller | D | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| R. Philippe | F | 20 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Hansen | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| F. Götze | D | 28 | 7.4 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| N. Noll | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Baack | M | 44 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Obermair | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0/1 |
| J. ter Horst | D | 62 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| G. Vidović | M | 46 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Castañeda | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 4 | 2 | — | 2/4 |
| L. Curda | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| M. Pieringer | F | 28 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Ulrich | M | 70 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/5 |
| S. Tigges | F | 62 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| S. Michel | F | 11 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Marino | F | 79 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Jonah Benedict Sticker | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ruben Müller | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Zeitler | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Schubert | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bornauw | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Omari | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Nadir | M | 71 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Y. Poulsen | F | 46 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Grønbæk | M | 19 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Adeline | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| M. Muheim | M | 71 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| T. Moffi | F | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Fábio Vieira | F | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit | F | 1 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Møller Wolfe | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| A. Sambi Lokonga | M | 19 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otto Emerson Stange | F | 76 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Z. El Ouahdi | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/3 |
| S. Nandja | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kofi Jeremy Amoako | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bissi Mouelle | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Lemke | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Tangvik | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
- Fipster's AI model predicted SC Paderborn 07 to win against Hamburger SV.
- What score did Fipster predict for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
- Fipster predicted a final score of SC Paderborn 07 2–1 Hamburger SV.
- What were the win probabilities for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
- Fipster's model gave SC Paderborn 07 a 35% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.