SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04
Freiburg edge Schalke in tight tussle
A late strike from K. Goto seals a narrow win for SC Freiburg.
SC Freiburg secured a 2-1 victory over FC Schalke 04 in a closely contested Bundesliga match. M. Eggestein gave Freiburg an early lead before K. Karaman levelled for Schalke in the first half. The decisive moment came when K. Goto scored in the 85th minute to clinch the win for the hosts. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the exact scoreline proved a bit too ambitious.
Outcome probability
The new Bundesliga season kicks off with SC Freiburg facing off against FC Schalke 04. Freiburg, having maintained their place in the top flight, look to leverage their stability and summer reinforcements to make a strong start. Schalke, newly promoted, will be eager to prove their mettle but face a tough challenge against a well-settled opponent.
Key facts
- 1.SC Freiburg finished 7th in the Bundesliga last season with 47 points from 34 games.
- 2.FC Schalke 04 are newly promoted to the Bundesliga this season.
- 3.Freiburg have strengthened their squad with the signings of M. Backhaus and Y. Engelhardt.
- 4.Schalke have bolstered their ranks with loan arrivals R. Gosens and Hwang Hee-Chan, plus the signing of A. Aouchiche.
- 5.Freiburg have a notable points-per-game advantage over Schalke from last season.
- 6.The most probable fulltime scoreline is 3-0 in favour of Freiburg.
- 7.Halftime is expected to end 1-0 to Freiburg.
- 8.The match is predicted to feature around three cards.
The context
SC Freiburg finished seventh last season with 47 points from 34 games, showcasing solid performance in the Bundesliga. Meanwhile, FC Schalke 04 return to the top tier after promotion, bringing in notable loan signings like R. Gosens and Hwang Hee-Chan, alongside the permanent arrival of A. Aouchiche. Freiburg's summer business includes the arrivals of M. Backhaus and Y. Engelhardt, while they parted ways with N. Atubolu and J. Manzambi on loan and transfer respectively.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — SC Freiburg
Away — FC Schalke 04
No standout best passers flagged for FC Schalke 04
Analysis
The statistical outlook heavily favours Freiburg, with home wins accounting for 92% of probable outcomes and a 3-0 scoreline the most likely fulltime result. Freiburg's points-per-game advantage over Schalke (1.38 vs 0.00) underscores their superior league experience and consistency. Schalke's better goal difference last season is less relevant given their promotion and the step up in competition. The predicted halftime score of 1-0 suggests Freiburg will establish control early and build on it as the match progresses.
Prediction
Expect SC Freiburg to take an early lead and maintain their advantage throughout, culminating in a 3-0 victory. The match should see a moderate number of cards, around three, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. Schalke will find it difficult to break down Freiburg's organised defence and clinical attack.
The verdict
This season opener sets the tone for both sides: Freiburg aiming to consolidate their Bundesliga status with a strong start, and Schalke looking to adapt quickly to the demands of top-flight football. The forecasted 3-0 win for Freiburg aligns with their established quality and summer preparations, making them the clear favourites to claim all three points.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 17:22 UTC · Fipster Model v1.160
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Eggestein
Karaman
Assist: Gantenbein
Suzuki
Yellow Card
Ginter
Yellow Card
Suzuki
Red Card
Matanović
Engelhardt
Beste
Adamu
Tanaka
Gantenbein
Sylla
Wöber
Scherhant
Treu
Goto
Assist: Grifo
Hwang Hee-Chan
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 12 |  Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 |  FC Schalke 04 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
Match Statistics
SC Freiburg
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. BackhausG
- 3P. LienhartD
- 7D. ScherhantM
- 8M. EggesteinM
- 14Y. SuzukiM
- 16Y. EngelhardtM
- 19J. BesteM
- 28M. GinterD
- 29P. TreuD
- 31I. MatanovićF
- 33J. MakengoD
Substitutes
- 6P. OsterhageM
- 9L. HölerF
- 17L. KüblerD
- 22Cyriaque Kalou IriéF
- 24J. HuthG
- 30C. GünterD
- 32V. GrifoM
- 37M. RosenfelderD
- 42K. GotoF
FC Schalke 04
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1L. KariusG
- 4H. KuruçayD
- 8R. GosensM
- 9M. SyllaM
- 13S. TanakaM
- 17A. GantenbeinM
- 19K. KaramanM
- 20J. AdamuF
- 23S. El-FaouziM
- 25N. KatićD
- 39M. WöberD
Substitutes
- 5T. BeckerD
- 6R. SchallenbergM
- 7Hwang Hee-ChanF
- 10E. DžekoF
- 22K. MüllerG
- 24A. AouchicheM
- 29J. Dina EbimbeM
- 33Vitalie BeckerD
- 43M. AyhanD
SC Freiburg
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Eggestein | M | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| K. Goto | F | 21 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Ginter | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| L. Höler | F | 25 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| P. Treu | D | 83 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Grifo | M | 7 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Makengo | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/5 |
| Cyriaque Kalou Irié | F | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Beste | M | 69 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| I. Matanović | F | 65 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 3/4 |
| D. Scherhant | M | 83 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| L. Kübler | D | 7 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Engelhardt | M | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Lienhart | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Suzuki | M | 64 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| M. Backhaus | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Rosenfelder | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Osterhage | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Günter | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Huth | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
FC Schalke 04
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Kuruçay | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Wöber | D | 79 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Gantenbein | M | 79 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| K. Karaman | M | 90 | 6.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| N. Katić | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Karius | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Tanaka | M | 69 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Džeko | F | 21 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Becker | D | 11 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. El-Faouzi | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| J. Adamu | F | 69 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| M. Sylla | M | 79 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Aouchiche | M | 11 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hwang Hee-Chan | F | 11 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Gosens | M | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Schallenberg | M | 21 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ayhan | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Müller | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitalie Becker | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Dina Ebimbe | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04?
- Fipster's AI model predicted SC Freiburg to win against FC Schalke 04.
- What score did Fipster predict for SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04?
- Fipster predicted a final score of SC Freiburg 3–0 FC Schalke 04.
- What were the win probabilities for SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04?
- Fipster's model gave SC Freiburg a 95% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.