SC Freiburg vs Bayern München
Bayern München cruise past SC Freiburg
Upamecano and Gnabry set the tone as Bayern secure a comfortable win.
Bayern München took control early with goals from D. Upamecano and S. Gnabry before the break, setting the stage for a 3-1 victory over SC Freiburg. An own goal by T. Bischof further extended Bayern's lead, and M. Olise added a late finish to seal the result. This outcome defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Freiburg clean sheet and win, proving the visitors too strong on the day.
Outcome probability
SC Freiburg and Bayern München face off in what promises to be a fascinating Bundesliga encounter. Both teams have been in fine form, but the prediction leans heavily towards a dominant home performance.
Match factors
Freiburg's home scoring streak fuels confidence
Freiburg has scored in all last 5 games at home, averaging 3.67 goals, supporting a strong attacking display
Olise's superior home scoring form
Michael Olise has 4 goals in 2 home games, outperforming league midfielder averages significantly
Kane's dual threat as scorer and assister
Harry Kane has 3 goals and 5 assists in last 5 games, showing peak form and influence
Suzuki's absence weakens Freiburg midfield attack
Yuito Suzuki is out due to red card suspension, removing a key goal threat from Freiburg
The context
Currently, SC Freiburg sit third in the league with 13 points from five games, unbeaten so far, while Bayern München lead the table with 14 points from six games. Bayern have the superior goal difference, but Freiburg's home scoring streak and unbeaten run add an intriguing twist to this fixture.
Key insights
Michael Olise
Bayern München
Michael Olise boasts the highest passing accuracy among Bayern midfielders at 91%, leading the team with 4 goals in 5 games, including a strong home scoring record.
Bundesliga 26/274 goals in 5 appearances, 91% passing accuracy
Harry Kane
Bayern München
Harry Kane is in peak form with 3 goals and 5 assists in the last 5 games, making him a dual threat as both scorer and playmaker.
Bundesliga 26/273 goals and 5 assists in last 5 games
Matthias Ginter
SC Freiburg
Matthias Ginter leads Freiburg with 3 assists and boasts high passing accuracy (89%), contributing significantly to their attacking and set-piece threat.
Bundesliga 26/273 assists in 5 appearances, 89% passing accuracy
Analysis
Despite Bayern's historical dominance in head-to-head meetings, recent form and home advantage suggest Freiburg could turn the tables. Freiburg have scored in all their last five home games, averaging nearly four goals per match, while Bayern's key players like Michael Olise and Harry Kane continue to impress. However, Freiburg's attacking midfielders, including Maximilian Eggestein and Igor Matanović, have been prolific at home, and the absence of Yuito Suzuki due to suspension weakens Bayern's midfield challenge.
Key facts
- 1.SC Freiburg are unbeaten at home this season, scoring in all five games.
- 2.Bayern München lead the league with 14 points from six matches.
- 3.Bayern have won 15 of the last 20 meetings against Freiburg.
- 4.Freiburg currently sit third in the Bundesliga with 13 points.
- 5.Michael Olise is Bayern's top scorer with 4 goals this season.
- 6.Harry Kane has contributed 3 goals and 5 assists in recent games.
- 7.Freiburg's Maximilian Eggestein has scored 3 goals in 5 appearances.
- 8.Yuito Suzuki is suspended, weakening Bayern's midfield attack.
Prediction
The forecast is a confident 4-0 win for SC Freiburg, with a halftime lead of 2-0. The match is expected to be competitive but ultimately dominated by Freiburg's attacking prowess and defensive solidity, limiting Bayern's chances and goals.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — SC Freiburg
Away — Bayern München
The verdict
This fixture could be a turning point in the Bundesliga season, with Freiburg looking to make a statement against the league leaders. Expect a lively game with Freiburg capitalising on their home form to secure a comprehensive victory.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 15:26 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Upamecano
Assist: Olise
Höler
Yellow Card
Gnabry
Assist: Brown
Beste
Yellow Card
Höler
Osterhage
Stanišić
Gnabry
Beste
Tah
Yellow Card
Brown
Lienhart
Scherhant
Bischof (OG)
Eggestein
Yellow Card
Karl
Olise
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +11 | 15 |
Match Statistics
SC Freiburg
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. BackhausG
- 3P. LienhartD
- 6P. OsterhageM
- 7D. ScherhantM
- 8M. EggesteinM
- 9L. HölerF
- 14Y. SuzukiM
- 19J. BesteM
- 28M. GinterD
- 29P. TreuD
- 33J. MakengoD
Substitutes
- 17L. KüblerD
- 20R. YamamotoM
- 21F. MüllerG
- 22Cyriaque Kalou IriéF
- 30C. GünterD
- 31I. MatanovićF
- 32V. GrifoM
- 37M. RosenfelderD
- 42K. GotoF
Bayern München
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2D. UpamecanoD
- 4J. TahD
- 7S. GnabryM
- 8T. BischofM
- 9H. KaneF
- 11N. BrownD
- 17M. OliseM
- 27K. LaimerM
- 40J. UrbigG
- 42L. KarlM
- 44J. StanišićD
Substitutes
- 19A. DaviesD
- 21H. ItoD
- 23S. BoeyD
- 26S. UlreichG
- 30Cassiano KialaD
- 34I. SaibariM
- 46T. BinderM
- 47David DaiberM
SC Freiburg
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Matanović | F | 33 | 6.9 | — | — | 4 | 2 | — | 0/2 |
| M. Backhaus | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Ginter | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Y. Suzuki | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Cyriaque Kalou Irié | F | 26 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/4 |
| P. Lienhart | D | 77 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| V. Grifo | M | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| M. Eggestein | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Höler | F | 57 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| P. Osterhage | M | 58 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| D. Scherhant | M | 77 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| J. Makengo | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
| M. Rosenfelder | D | 13 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Treu | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| R. Yamamoto | M | 32 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Beste | M | 64 | 5.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| L. Kübler | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Günter | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Goto | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Müller | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bayern München
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Olise | M | 90 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2/5 |
| S. Gnabry | M | 61 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| D. Upamecano | D | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| J. Urbig | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Brown | D | 73 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| K. Laimer | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| S. Boey | D | 29 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Stanišić | D | 61 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Saibari | M | 29 | 6.8 | — | — | 4 | 2 | — | 2/2 |
| A. Davies | D | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Tah | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| H. Ito | D | 4 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Kane | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| L. Karl | M | 86 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/4 |
| T. Bischof | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Cassiano Kiala | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Daiber | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Binder | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Ulreich | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
- Fipster's AI model predicted SC Freiburg to win against Bayern München.
- What score did Fipster predict for SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
- Fipster predicted a final score of SC Freiburg 4–0 Bayern München.
- What were the win probabilities for SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
- Fipster's model gave SC Freiburg a 95% chance of winning, Bayern München a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.