SC Braga vs Guimaraes
Match recap
SC Braga beat Guimaraes 1–0 in their Primeira Liga fixture. Diego Rodrigues scored for SC Braga. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.83 for SC Braga versus 0.23 for Guimaraes. SC Braga sit 8th in the Primeira Liga table while Guimaraes are 15th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-0 SC Braga win
Actual
1–0
Outcome probability
SC Braga and Guimaraes face off in the fourth round of the regular season, with Braga looking to consolidate their position in the league standings. Both teams have shown contrasting form, setting the stage for an intriguing clash.
Match factors
Braga's attacking edge through Pau Victor
Pau Victor's strong away scoring form and link-up with Gabriel Silva gives Braga a clear attacking threat.
Braga's creative midfield outperforms Guimaraes
Demir Tıknaz leads Braga with 2 assists and high passing accuracy, surpassing Guimaraes' midfield creativity.
Braga's recent home form supports predicted win
Braga has scored in last 3 home matches and kept 2 clean sheets recently, indicating positive momentum.
Guimaraes defensive vulnerability away
Guimaraes concedes 2 goals per away game on average, a weakness Braga can exploit at home.
Full squad availability boosts Braga's chances
No confirmed injuries for Braga ensures strongest lineup and tactical consistency.
The context
Braga currently sit 8th with 11 points from 7 games, comfortably ahead of Guimaraes who are 15th with 5 points from 8 matches. Braga's goal difference of zero also outshines Guimaraes' minus five, highlighting the home side's relative stability this season.
Key insights
Pau Victor
SC Braga
Pau Victor's strong away scoring form and link-up play provide Braga with a clear attacking edge.
Primeira Liga 26/273 goals in 7 appearances, 0.43 goals/game
E. Tıknaz
SC Braga
Demir Tıknaz's creativity and high passing accuracy make him a key playmaker for Braga.
Primeira Liga 26/272 assists in 6 appearances, 0.33 assists/game, 91% passing accuracy
Analysis
Braga's attacking threat is spearheaded by Pau Victor, who boasts three goals in seven appearances and has been particularly effective away from home. Midfielder Demir Tıknaz adds creativity with two assists and a high passing accuracy, giving Braga a tactical edge. Guimaraes, meanwhile, have struggled defensively on the road, conceding an average of two goals per away game. Braga's recent home form, including scoring in their last three matches and keeping two clean sheets, suggests they are well placed to exploit these vulnerabilities.
Key facts
- 1.SC Braga have won 11 of 20 head-to-head matches against Guimaraes.
- 2.Braga are 8th in the league with 11 points from 7 games; Guimaraes are 15th with 5 points from 8 games.
- 3.Braga's goal difference is 0, better than Guimaraes' -5 this season.
- 4.Braga average 1.57 points per game, significantly higher than Guimaraes' 0.63.
- 5.Pau Victor is Braga's top scorer with 3 goals in 7 appearances.
- 6.Demir Tıknaz leads Braga with 2 assists and 91% passing accuracy.
- 7.Guimaraes concede an average of 2 goals per away game this season.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Braga with a 2-0 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 1-0, consistent with Braga's ability to start strongly and maintain control. The match is also anticipated to feature around four cards, reflecting a moderately disciplined contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — SC Braga
Away — Guimaraes
The verdict
In summary, Braga's superior form, home advantage, and key player contributions make them the likely winners. Guimaraes will need to tighten their defence and find a way to counter Braga's attacking threats if they are to avoid defeat.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:32 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Rivas
Yellow Card
Tıknaz
Yellow Card
Strata
Yellow Card
Miguel Nogueira
Nogueira
Victor
Carvalho
Yellow Card
Dorgeles
Tıknaz
Gustavo
Yellow Card
Gustavo
Ndoye
Diego Rodrigues
Assist: Silva
Samu
Silva
Travassos
Match Statistics
SC Braga
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 2Víctor GómezM
- 6Vitor CarvalhoD
- 7Diogo TravassosM
- 8João MoutinhoM
- 10Pau VictorF
- 11Gabriel SilvaF
- 14G. LagerbielkeD
- 20M. DorgelesF
- 22Sergio BarciaD
- 31Bernardo FontesG
- 34E. TıknazM
Substitutes
- 9Fran NavarroF
- 12Tiago SáG
- 16Tomás MarquésM
- 17J. MiloševićF
- 37A. BarišićD
- 44A. BajramiD
- 50Diego RodriguesM
- 53Jonatás NoroD
- 77Gabri MartínezF
- 78João CarvalhoG
- 87J. TroviscoM
- 90LuisinhoM
Guimaraes
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4Óscar RivasD
- 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
- 11GustavoM
- 13João MendesD
- 17Miguel NogueiraM
- 20SamuM
- 23T. StrataD
- 24A. NdoyeF
- 28Thiago BalieiroD
- 44L. DoucetM
- 48O. ZychG
Substitutes
- 2Miguel MagaD
- 5A. SidibéD
- 6M. MitrovićM
- 7O. CamaraF
- 15Y. MosqueraD
- 16BeniM
- 18Telmo ArcanjoM
- 19V. AnderssonM
- 22J. CastilloG
- 29V. OuotroF
- 56S. VerdiM
- 82F. DiasD
SC Braga
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Silva | F | 86 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Vítor Carvalho | D | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Moutinho(C) | M | 95 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Demir Ege Tıknaz | M | 72 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Gustaf Lagerbielke | D | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Victor Gómez | M | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Mario Dorgeles | F | 72 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Sergio Barcia | D | 95 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Diogo Travassos | M | 86 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Bernardo Fontes | G | 95 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pau Víctor | F | 65 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| João Trovisco | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Martínez | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joao Carvalho | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonatás Noro | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luís Pinto | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Sá | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrian Leon Barišić | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Rodrigues | M | 23 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Tomás Marqués | M | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jovan Milošević | F | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Adrian Bajrami | D | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran Navarro | F | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Guimaraes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliwier Zych | G | 95 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lohann Doucet | M | 95 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Óscar Rivas | D | 95 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Nogueira | M | 61 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Gustavo Silva | M | 76 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Alioune Ndoye | F | 77 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Gonçalo Nogueira | M | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Balieiro | D | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Samu(C) | M | 84 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| João Mendes | D | 95 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tony Strata | D | 95 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Franck Ahmed Sidibé | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matija Mitrović | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Maga | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Castillo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francisco Dias | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santi Verdi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yeimar Mosquera | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beni Mukendi | M | 34 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Oumar Camara | F | 34 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Patrick Ouotro | F | 18 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Victor Andersson | M | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Telmo Arcanjo | M | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win SC Braga vs Guimaraes?
- Fipster's AI model predicted SC Braga to win against Guimaraes.
- What score did Fipster predict for SC Braga vs Guimaraes?
- Fipster predicted a final score of SC Braga 2–0 Guimaraes.
- What were the win probabilities for SC Braga vs Guimaraes?
- Fipster's model gave SC Braga a 79% chance of winning, Guimaraes a 10% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 79% confidence — a high-confidence call.