SC Braga vs Estrela
Match recap
SC Braga and Estrela drew 2–2 in their Primeira Liga fixture. Gabri Martínez and Victor scored for SC Braga; Leković and Leković replied for Estrela. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.41 for SC Braga versus 0.73 for Estrela. SC Braga sit 4th in the Primeira Liga table while Estrela are 15th.
Analysis
As the regular season nears its climax, SC Braga host Estrela in a match where the home side's superior form and statistics suggest a comfortable victory.
SC Braga and Estrela have met seven times previously, with Braga winning three and the rest ending in draws. Braga boasts a strong goal difference of +28 compared to Estrela's -18, and their points per game (1.74) nearly double Estrela's 0.88, highlighting the gulf in quality and consistency.
Braga's midfield maestro R. Zalazar leads the charge with 16 goals and 5 assists this season, showing excellent home form and recent scoring streaks. Ricardo Horta complements him well, contributing 14 goals and 4 assists, particularly thriving on home turf. Defensively, Braga's backline, anchored by Gustaf Lagerbielke, maintains solid stats that should keep Estrela's attackers at bay. Estrela's key players, including Abraham Marcus and Jovane Cabral, face a tough challenge against this well-drilled Braga side.
Prediction
The prediction confidently favours a 2-0 home win for SC Braga. The halftime score is expected to be 1-0, with Braga extending their lead in the second half. The match is also anticipated to feature around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Braga's Midfield Dominance
Zalazar and Moutinho's passing and tackling superiority likely to control midfield.
Superior Scoring Form for Braga
Braga's top scorers have higher goals per game and better recent form than Estrela's attackers.
Braga's Consistent Scoring Streak
Braga has scored in last 5 home games, indicating strong attacking momentum.
Defensive Stability in Braga's Backline
Lagerbielke and Arrey-Mbi's defensive stats exceed league averages, likely to contain Estrela's forwards.
No Key Injuries Reported
Both teams have no reported injuries, so full-strength squads expected.
Key Takeaways
In summary, SC Braga's superior form, home advantage, and key player performances make them clear favourites to secure a 2-0 victory over Estrela. Expect a disciplined display with Braga controlling the game from midfield to defence.
- SC Braga have won 3 of 7 head-to-head matches against Estrela, with 4 draws.
- SC Braga's goal difference this season is +28, while Estrela's is -18.
- SC Braga average 1.74 points per game compared to Estrela's 0.88.
- R. Zalazar leads Braga with 16 goals and 5 assists this season.
- Ricardo Horta has scored 14 goals and provided 4 assists, excelling at home.
- Braga have scored in their last 5 home games, showing strong attacking momentum.
- Estimated total cards in the match is 4, indicating a competitive game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — SC Braga
Away — Estrela
No standout top scorers flagged for Estrela
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Leković
Gabri Martínez
João Moutinho
Yellow Card
Gabri Martínez
Renan Ribeiro
Yellow Card
Luan Patrick
Yellow Card
Ricardo Horta
Stoica
Eddy Doue
van Hooijdonk
Paulo Moreira
Luisinho
Horníček
Paulo Oliveira
Leković
Yellow Card
Marcus
Yellow Card
Marcus
Leković
Red Card
Leković
Yellow Card
Victor
Penalty
Leković
Assist: Jovane Cabral
Match Statistics
SC Braga
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 1Lukáš HorníčekG
- 2Víctor GómezM
- 8João MoutinhoM
- 14Gustaf Johan LagerbielkeD
- 15Paulo OliveiraD
- 17Gabriel MoscardoD
- 18Pau VictorF
- 21Ricardo HortaF
- 39Fran NavarroF
- 77Gabri MartínezM
- 90LuisinhoM
Substitutes
- 5Leonardo LeloD
- 9Amine El OuazzaniF
- 29Jean-Baptiste GorbyM
- 41Yanis da RochaM
- 53J. Noro
- 78João CarvalhoG
- 80João VasconcelosM
- 92A. GilM
- 96A. Sousa
Estrela
3-4-3Starting XI
- 4Stefan LekovićD
- 10I. StoicaF
- 17Jefferson EncadaM
- 19Paulo MoreiraM
- 20Sydney van HooijdonkF
- 24Bruno LangaM
- 30Luan PatrickD
- 39Eddy DoueM
- 40Renan RibeiroG
- 83OtávioD
- 99Abraham Ayomide MarcusF
Substitutes
- 1Diogo PintoG
- 6K. Höög JanssonM
- 7Leandro Antonetti LópezF
- 8RobinhoM
- 11Jovane CabralF
- 14Bernardo SchappoD
- 18Jorge MeirelesF
- 21M. ScholzeD
- 28T. MoustierM
SC Braga
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Moutinho | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Pau Víctor | F | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/4 |
| Fran Navarro | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Gabriel Martínez | M | 45 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Gabriel Moscardo | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Luís Pinto | M | 80 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Paulo Oliveira | D | 85 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Horta(C) | F | 68 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Lukáš Horníček | G | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Gómez | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Gustaf Lagerbielke | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Yanis da Rocha | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Afonso Sousa | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Amine El Ouazzani | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Vasconcelos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joao Carvalho | G | 10 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Lelo | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jean-Baptiste Gorby | M | 22 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonatás Noro | D | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antonio Gil | M | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Estrela
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Leković | D | 90 | 8.0 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Eddy Doué | M | 68 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Ianis Stoica | F | 68 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Bruno Langa | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Renan Ribeiro(C) | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abraham Marcus | F | 89 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 4/7 |
| Paulo Moreira | M | 77 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Jefferson Encada | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Sydney van Hooijdonk | F | 68 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Otavio | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Luan Patrick | D | 90 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Bernardo Schappo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogo Pinto | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge Meireles | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tom Moustier | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Scholze | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jovane Cabral | F | 22 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Robinho | M | 22 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leandro Antonetti | F | 22 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Höög Jansson | M | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |