Sao Paulo vs Vitoria
Calleri's brace secures Sao Paulo win
Sao Paulo edge past Vitoria in a closely contested Serie A clash
J. Calleri proved decisive for Sao Paulo with goals in the 20th and 70th minutes, sandwiching E. Martínez's first-half equaliser for Vitoria. The 2-1 scoreline reflects a tight match rather than the dominant 3-0 win Fipster had confidently predicted, but the home victory call was spot on.
Outcome probability
Sao Paulo and Vitoria face off in the 30th round of the regular season, with Sao Paulo looking to extend their advantage over a closely matched Vitoria side. Both teams have had their moments this season, but the stats suggest a clear edge for Sao Paulo.
Match factors
Sao Paulo's potent home attack led by Luciano
Luciano's strong home scoring form (0.6 goals/game last 10 home) gives Sao Paulo a clear attacking edge at home
Vitoria's key creators Matheuzinho and Erick in form
Matheuzinho and Erick have combined for multiple assists recently, sustaining Vitoria's attacking threat despite away challenges
Sao Paulo's attacking duo Calleri and Luciano in good recent form
Both have scored in recent matches and are consistent starters, boosting Sao Paulo's goal potential
Absence of Lucas Moura weakens Sao Paulo's attacking depth
Lucas Moura is confirmed out, reducing Sao Paulo's attacking options and increasing reliance on Luciano and Calleri
Wendell's set-piece and crossing ability enhances Sao Paulo's scoring chances
Wendell's 3 assists and set-piece role provide Sao Paulo with quality service to forwards
The context
In their head-to-head history, Sao Paulo have been the more successful side, winning 12 of their 17 meetings against Vitoria without a single draw. This fixture sees Sao Paulo sitting 10th in the league with 36 points, just ahead of Vitoria in 13th with 33 points. The goal difference also favours Sao Paulo significantly, highlighting their stronger overall performance this season.
Key insights
Luciano
Sao Paulo
Luciano's strong home scoring form (0.6 goals/game last 10 home) gives Sao Paulo a clear attacking edge at home.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 23 apps, 0.39 goals/game
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
Calleri's consistent scoring in recent matches boosts Sao Paulo's goal potential.
Serie A 26/277 goals in 24 apps, 0.29 goals/game
Wendell
Sao Paulo
Wendell's set-piece and crossing ability enhances Sao Paulo's scoring chances.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 26 apps, 0.12 assists/game
Matheuzinho
Vitoria
Matheuzinho's recent assist form sustains Vitoria's attacking threat despite away challenges.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 28 apps, 0.14 assists/game
Erick
Vitoria
Erick's combined goal and assist form makes him a key player for Vitoria's attack.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 28 apps, 0.18 assists/game
Analysis
Sao Paulo's attacking threat is led by Luciano, who boasts a strong home scoring record with 9 goals this season and an impressive 0.6 goals per game in his last 10 home matches. Jonathan Calleri complements him well, having scored 7 goals and showing consistent form recently. Defensively, Sao Paulo benefit from Wendell's set-piece prowess, providing quality service to the forwards. Vitoria, meanwhile, rely on creative midfielders Matheuzinho and Erick, who have been key in their attacking plays, but their efforts may not be enough to overcome Sao Paulo's home advantage and superior goal difference.
Key facts
- 1.Sao Paulo have won 12 of 17 meetings against Vitoria with no draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.9 goals, with Sao Paulo scoring 31 goals in 17 matches.
- 3.Sao Paulo rank 10th with 36 points; Vitoria 13th with 33 points, indicating a slight home advantage.
- 4.Sao Paulo have a significantly better goal difference (+15) than Vitoria this season.
- 5.Luciano leads Sao Paulo's scoring with 9 goals and strong home form.
- 6.Jonathan Calleri has 7 goals this season and is in good recent form.
- 7.Wendell provides quality assists and set-piece delivery for Sao Paulo.
- 8.Vitoria's Matheuzinho and Erick are key creative players with multiple assists.
Prediction
The prediction is a confident 3-0 win for Sao Paulo, with a halftime score of 1-0. The home side's attacking duo is expected to break down Vitoria's defence, while Sao Paulo's solid defensive record should keep a clean sheet. The match is also expected to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sao Paulo
Away — Vitoria
No standout top scorers flagged for Vitoria
The verdict
All signs point to Sao Paulo continuing their dominance over Vitoria in this fixture. With key players in form and a clear statistical edge, Sao Paulo should secure a comfortable victory and strengthen their position in the league standings.
Prediction generated 8 Oct 2026, 02:26 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Cacá
Yellow Card
Matheuzinho
Yellow Card
Calleri
Assist: Iago
Santana
Yellow Card
Martínez
Assist: Erick
Ferreira
Yellow Card
Ferreira
Lucas Ramon
Silva
Calleri
Santana
Artur
Sabino
Yellow Card
Iago
Yellow Card
Matheuzinho
Caíque
Rene
Bobadilla
Kayzer
Yellow Card
Martínez
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
Match Statistics
Sao Paulo
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 9J. CalleriF
- 12IagoM
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 19Lucas RamonM
- 23RafaelG
- 28NewtonD
- 35SabinoD
- 37ArturM
- 43G. SantanaM
- 48D. FerreiraM
Substitutes
- 2R. TolóiD
- 7Lucas MouraF
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 17André SilvaF
- 18WendellD
- 27Victor SáF
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 32Pedro LimaD
- 45Lucca Marques AlencarF
- 46Pedro FerreiraM
- 49Ryan FranciscoF
Vitoria
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 6E. MartínezM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 20Lucas SilvaM
- 25CacáD
- 33ErickM
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 91ReneF
- 95CaíqueM
- 98MateusinhoD
Substitutes
- 2E. BrítezD
- 7MarinhoF
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 9Alex BrunoF
- 15WalaceM
- 23FabrícioF
- 26EdenilsonM
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 77I. LaquintanaM
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 88Zé VitorM
Sao Paulo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Calleri | F | 90 | 9.4 | 2 | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1/3 |
| D. Bobadilla | M | 84 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| Artur | M | 75 | 7.1 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1/4 |
| R. Arboleda | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Sabino | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Marcos Antônio | M | 31 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Moura | F | 31 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Rafael | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Ferreira | M | 59 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Newton | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Pedro Lima | D | 15 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Ferreira | M | 15 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Lucas Ramon | M | 59 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| R. Tolói | D | 6 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| G. Santana | M | 75 | 6.0 | — | — | 5 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Wendell | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Maia | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Francisco | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucca Marques Alencar | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Coronel | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Silva | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Sá | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Martínez | M | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Mateusinho | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Erick | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1/5 |
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caíque | M | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Luan Cândido | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | M | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 11 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | M | 12 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jamerson | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| T. Pochettino | M | 21 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Cacá | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Matheuzinho | M | 78 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
| Rene | F | 79 | 5.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Edenilson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Brítez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrício | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marinho | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walace | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Laquintana | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Sena | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bruno | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sao Paulo to win against Vitoria.
- What score did Fipster predict for Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Sao Paulo 3–0 Vitoria.
- What were the win probabilities for Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
- Fipster's model gave Sao Paulo a 95% chance of winning, Vitoria a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.