Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo edges Vasco with Artur's strike
A solitary goal secures a narrow victory in Serie A clash
Sao Paulo claimed a tight 1-0 win over Vasco DA Gama thanks to Artur's decisive goal after the break. The match was a close contest with the single strike proving enough to separate the sides. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the actual scoreline was a bit closer than anticipated.
Outcome probability
Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama face off in a crucial Regular Season - 31 match. Both teams are close in the league standings, but Sao Paulo's recent form and goal difference give them the edge.
Match factors
Sao Paulo missing key attackers
Luciano and Lucas Moura are confirmed out, reducing Sao Paulo's attacking options significantly.
Jonathan Calleri's strong home form
Calleri has scored 3 goals in last 5 home games, boosting Sao Paulo's scoring potential.
Sao Paulo's home scoring advantage
Sao Paulo averages 1.6 goals per home game, above league average, supporting predicted 2-0 win.
Vasco's reliance on Andrés Gómez
Gómez is Vasco's top scorer and key creative player, but limited support may hinder goal threat.
The context
This fixture sees Sao Paulo sitting 11th with 36 points, just ahead of Vasco DA Gama in 14th with 35 points. Their head-to-head record favours Sao Paulo, who have won half of their 20 encounters, while Vasco have six wins and four draws.
Key insights
J. Calleri
Sao Paulo
Calleri has been in fine form at home, netting 3 goals in his last 5 games, making him a key attacking threat.
Serie A 26/277 goals in 25 appearances, 0.28 goals/game
Andrés Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
Gómez is Vasco's top scorer with 5 goals and a consistent presence, but limited support may hinder their goal threat.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 25 appearances, 0.20 goals/game
Ferreira
Sao Paulo
Ferreira is doubtful due to injury but has scored 4 goals this season and could provide an important attacking option if fit.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 26 appearances, 0.15 goals/game
Analysis
Sao Paulo's home scoring average of 1.6 goals per game and a +5 goal difference this season underline their attacking strength. Jonathan Calleri's recent home form, with three goals in five games, makes him a key threat. Vasco DA Gama rely heavily on Andrés Gómez, their top scorer with five goals, but limited support may blunt their attack. The predicted halftime score of 1-0 aligns with Sao Paulo's ability to start strong, and the forecast of four cards suggests a competitive but controlled match.
Key facts
- 1.Sao Paulo have won 10 of 20 matches against Vasco DA Gama.
- 2.Sao Paulo hold a +5 goal difference advantage this season.
- 3.Sao Paulo rank 11th with 36 points; Vasco DA Gama are 14th with 35 points.
- 4.Jonathan Calleri has scored 3 goals in his last 5 home games.
- 5.Sao Paulo average 1.6 goals per home game this season.
- 6.Vasco DA Gama's top scorer Andrés Gómez has 5 goals this season.
Prediction
We expect Sao Paulo to take the lead by halftime and maintain control to secure a 2-0 victory. The home side's superior form, goal difference, and key player contributions should see them comfortably through this encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sao Paulo
Away — Vasco DA Gama
The verdict
Sao Paulo's combination of home advantage, recent scoring form, and tactical edge over Vasco DA Gama points to a solid 2-0 win. Vasco will need more than Andrés Gómez to challenge effectively, but the stats and form suggest the home side will have the final say.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 02:03 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Artur
Yellow Card
Colidio
Yellow Card
Luciano
Tolói
Paulo Henrique
Red card cancelled
Pereira
Yellow Card
Duarte
Artur
Assist: Pedro Lima
Marcos Antônio
Tchê Tchê
Sosa
Calleri
Artur
Lescano
Iago
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Sao Paulo
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 2R. TolóiD
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 9J. CalleriF
- 10LucianoM
- 12IagoM
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 23RafaelG
- 28NewtonD
- 32Pedro LimaM
- 37ArturM
Substitutes
- 7Lucas MouraF
- 18WendellD
- 19Lucas RamonD
- 27Victor SáF
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 35SabinoD
- 43G. SantanaF
- 45Lucca Marques AlencarF
- 46Pedro FerreiraM
- 49Ryan FranciscoF
- 54Osorio LuisD
Vasco DA Gama
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 5S. SosaM
- 9F. ColidioM
- 11A. GómezM
- 19Bruno DuarteF
- 22A. LescanoM
- 30Robert RenanD
- 55Gabriel PereiraD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
Substitutes
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 7DavidF
- 8JairM
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 20BrennerF
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 28AdsonF
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 45Loide AugustoF
- 83Ramon RiqueM
Sao Paulo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artur | M | 89 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Pedro Lima | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | 2/5 |
| Newton | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| R. Tolói | D | 46 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Bobadilla | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Antônio | M | 71 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Sabino | D | 44 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Osorio Luis | D | 1 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Arboleda | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Maia | M | 19 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Moura | F | 44 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Iago | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Luciano | M | 46 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| G. Santana | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Calleri | F | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Lucca Marques Alencar | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Ferreira | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Francisco | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Coronel | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Sá | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wendell | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Rodríguez | D | 44 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| S. Sosa | M | 74 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Cuiabano | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| Jair | M | 16 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Mendes | M | 16 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tchê Tchê | M | 74 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| A. Gómez | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5/9 |
| Léo Jardim | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 46 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Robert Renan | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adson | F | 1 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Duarte | F | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/3 |
| A. Lescano | M | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Brenner | F | 28 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Pereira | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| F. Colidio | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 3/5 |
| Lucas Piton | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Fuzato | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Loide Augusto | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Saldivia | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramon Rique | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sao Paulo to win against Vasco DA Gama.
- What score did Fipster predict for Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Sao Paulo 2–0 Vasco DA Gama.
- What were the win probabilities for Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's model gave Sao Paulo a 82% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 9% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 82% confidence — a high-confidence call.