Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras
Match recap
Palmeiras beat Sao Paulo 1–0 in their Serie A fixture. Arias scored for Palmeiras. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.04 for Sao Paulo versus 0.13 for Palmeiras. Sao Paulo sit 9th in the Serie A table while Palmeiras are 1st.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-0 Sao Paulo win
Actual
0–1
Outcome probability
This clash between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras promises a tactical battle with both sides boasting notable strengths. Sao Paulo aim to leverage their home form and attacking prowess, while Palmeiras bring a solid defensive record and creative midfield play.
Match factors
Sao Paulo's home scoring streak vs Palmeiras
Sao Paulo has scored in all last 5 home games, leveraging strong attacking duo despite missing Luciano
Andreas Pereira's creative influence for Palmeiras
Pereira leads Palmeiras with 10 assists this season, key to unlocking defenses
Sao Paulo missing key attacker Luciano
Luciano is confirmed out, reducing Sao Paulo's attacking options and placing more burden on Calleri
Palmeiras' strong defensive form
Palmeiras have a high clean sheet percentage (44.8%) and concede fewer goals than Sao Paulo
Palmeiras defensive leadership of Gustavo Gómez
Gómez's defensive solidity and leadership could neutralize Sao Paulo's main striker Calleri
The context
Palmeiras sit comfortably in 2nd place with 60 points, showcasing a strong season with a +27 goal difference. Sao Paulo, positioned 11th with 36 points, have struggled for consistency but maintain a respectable home scoring streak. Historically, Palmeiras have dominated head-to-head meetings, winning 11 of 20 encounters compared to Sao Paulo's 3 victories.
Key insights
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
Top scorer for Sao Paulo with 10 goals, including 3 in last 5 home games, making him a key threat at home.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 25 apps, 3 goals last 5 home games
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
Leads Palmeiras with 10 assists, acting as the creative hub and set-piece specialist.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 28 apps
José López
Palmeiras
Palmeiras' leading scorer with 9 goals, consistent starter and important attacking threat.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 26 apps
Analysis
Despite Palmeiras' superior league position and goal difference, Sao Paulo's home scoring form and attacking focal point Jonathan Calleri, who has netted 10 goals this season including 3 in the last 5 home games, provide a tactical edge. Palmeiras rely heavily on midfielder Andreas Pereira's creativity, leading the team with 10 assists, but Sao Paulo's defensive resilience and goalkeeper Rafael's solid performances could frustrate the visitors. The absence of Sao Paulo's key attacker Luciano places more responsibility on Calleri, while Palmeiras' defensive leader Gustavo Gómez aims to contain Sao Paulo's attack. The match is expected to be tight, with discipline potentially playing a role given the predicted four cards.
Key facts
- 1.Palmeiras rank 2nd with 60 points; Sao Paulo 11th with 36 points.
- 2.Palmeiras have a +27 goal difference; Sao Paulo have -1.
- 3.In 20 meetings, Palmeiras have won 11, Sao Paulo 3, with 6 draws.
- 4.Sao Paulo have scored in all last 5 home games against Palmeiras.
- 5.Jonathan Calleri is Sao Paulo's top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 6.Andreas Pereira leads Palmeiras with 10 assists this season.
- 7.Sao Paulo's goalkeeper Rafael has been key to defensive stability.
- 8.Palmeiras captain Gustavo Gómez is a defensive leader and aerial threat.
Prediction
The forecast is a narrow 1-0 victory for Sao Paulo, reflecting their ability to capitalise on home advantage and key attacking moments. Palmeiras' defensive solidity will keep the scoreline close, but Sao Paulo's edge in front of goal should be decisive.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sao Paulo
Away — Palmeiras
The verdict
While Palmeiras have the statistical upper hand in the league and head-to-head record, Sao Paulo's home form and attacking threat make them the slight favourites for this encounter. Expect a closely fought match with Sao Paulo edging it by a single goal.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:17 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Arias
Assist: López
Díaz
Yellow Card
Andreas Pereira
Yellow Card
Carlos Miguel
Yellow Card
Díaz
Cauly
Franco
Freitas
Yellow Card
Maurício
Andreas Pereira
Freitas
Yellow Card
López
Allan
Yellow Card
Bobadilla
Martínez
Yellow Card
Luciano
Wendell
Yellow Card
Arias
Yellow Card
Silva
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
Match Statistics
Sao Paulo
4-3-1-2Starting XI
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 9J. CalleriF
- 10LucianoF
- 13E. DíazD
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 23RafaelG
- 28A. FrancoD
- 35SabinoD
- 80CaulyM
- 94DanielzinhoM
Substitutes
- 2R. TolóiD
- 4DóriaD
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 11FerreiraF
- 14G. TapiaF
- 17André SilvaF
- 18WendellD
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 33LuanM
- 42MaikD
- 46Pedro FerreiraM
Palmeiras
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 4A. GiayD
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 11J. AriasM
- 15G. GómezD
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 18MaurícioM
- 22J. PiquerezD
- 26MuriloD
- 40AllanM
- 42J. LópezF
Substitutes
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 6JeftéD
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 12KhellvenD
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 19R. SosaF
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 31Luighi HanriF
- 32E. MartínezM
- 48LarsonM
- 56ArthurD
Sao Paulo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabino | D | 100 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Marcos Antônio | M | 100 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Danielzinho | M | 100 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 100 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Cauly | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alan Franco | D | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Jonathan Calleri(C) | F | 100 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Luciano | F | 84 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Enzo Díaz | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Rafael | G | 100 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 79 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Pedro Ferreira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maik | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Maia | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Coronel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dória | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Tolói | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luan Santos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wendell | D | 55 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Arboleda | D | 55 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Tapia | F | 55 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ferreirinha | F | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/5 |
| André Silva | F | 21 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Palmeiras
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agustín Giay | D | 100 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Jhon Arias | M | 100 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/4 |
| Carlos Miguel | G | 100 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Murilo | D | 100 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 77 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 60 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Gustavo Gómez(C) | D | 100 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Piquerez | D | 100 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 63 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| José López | F | 77 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Mauricio | M | 60 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jefté | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Khellven | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Lomba | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Fuchs | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Gabriel | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Larson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 40 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emiliano Martínez | M | 37 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Ramón Sosa | F | 23 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 40 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Vitor Roque | F | 23 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sao Paulo to win against Palmeiras.
- What score did Fipster predict for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Sao Paulo 1–0 Palmeiras.
- What were the win probabilities for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
- Fipster's model gave Sao Paulo a 44% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 44% confidence — a low-confidence call.