Sao Paulo vs Internacional
Sao Paulo edge Internacional with early penalty
J. Calleri's 15th-minute spot-kick secures a narrow victory in Serie A.
Sao Paulo claimed a tight 1-0 win over Internacional thanks to an early penalty from J. Calleri. The solitary goal proved enough to settle the contest in a match that lacked the goal glut Fipster anticipated. While the predicted scoreline of 3-1 missed the mark, the forecast of a home win was spot on.
Outcome probability
Sao Paulo and Internacional face off in a Brazilian league match where the home side looks poised to extend their recent scoring streak. Both teams have had their moments this season, but Sao Paulo's superior goal difference and league standing give them the edge.
Match factors
Sao Paulo missing key attackers including Luciano
Luciano is confirmed out, removing a top scorer with 8 goals, impacting Sao Paulo's attacking options
Sao Paulo's home scoring streak and attacking depth
Sao Paulo has scored in all last 5 home games, with strong contributions from Calleri and Ferreira
Internacional's key attacker Carbonero in good form
Carbonero has 6 goals and 3 assists this season, showing consistent offensive threat despite team struggles
Sao Paulo's midfield creativity from Artur and Wendell
Artur and Wendell provide assists and key passes, boosting Sao Paulo's chance creation at home
Internacional's defensive challenges with key absences
Internacional missing key defenders due to suspensions and injuries, weakening defensive solidity
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season, round 28, where Sao Paulo currently sit 10th with 33 points, while Internacional are 18th with 25 points. Historically, their head-to-head record is balanced with seven wins apiece and six draws in 20 meetings, averaging 2.5 goals per game. This sets the stage for a competitive encounter.
Key insights
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
Top scorer for Sao Paulo with 7 goals, showing strong presence in attack and key home match contributor.
Serie A 26/277 goals in 22 appearances, 0.32 goals/game
- J
Johan Carbonero Balanta
Internacional
Key offensive player with 6 goals and 3 assists, consistent threat despite team struggles.
Serie A 26/276 goals and 3 assists in 25 appearances, 0.24 goals/game
Ferreira
Sao Paulo
Secondary scorer with 4 goals, good recent home form, likely to contribute to the scoreline.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 20 appearances, 0.20 goals/game
Artur
Sao Paulo
Creative midfielder providing key assists and chance creation, boosting Sao Paulo’s attacking options.
Serie A 26/272 assists in 16 appearances, 0.13 assists/game
Analysis
Sao Paulo's attacking depth is notable, especially with Jonathan Calleri leading the charge with seven goals this season. Ferreira also contributes with four goals, bolstering their offensive threat. Meanwhile, Internacional rely heavily on Johan Carbonero Balanta, who has six goals and three assists, but defensive absences weaken their resilience. Sao Paulo's midfield creativity, driven by Artur and Wendell, enhances their chance creation, making them favourites to break down Internacional's defence.
Key facts
- 1.Sao Paulo and Internacional have equal wins (7 each) and draws (6) in 20 meetings.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.5 total goals, evenly split between the teams.
- 3.Sao Paulo ranks 10th with 33 points from 25 games (W9 D6 L10).
- 4.Internacional ranks 18th with 25 points from 26 games (W5 D10 L11).
- 5.Sao Paulo has a significantly better goal difference (+9) than Internacional this season.
- 6.Jonathan Calleri is Sao Paulo's top scorer with 7 goals in 22 appearances.
- 7.Johan Carbonero Balanta leads Internacional with 6 goals and 3 assists this season.
- 8.Sao Paulo have scored in all their last 5 home games.
Prediction
The forecast is a 3-1 victory for Sao Paulo, with a halftime lead of 2-0. The match is expected to feature four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled game. Sao Paulo's home scoring streak and stronger league position underpin this prediction, suggesting they will manage to outscore Internacional comfortably.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sao Paulo
Away — Internacional
The verdict
In summary, Sao Paulo's combination of attacking prowess and midfield creativity, coupled with Internacional's defensive challenges, points towards a home win. Fans can expect an entertaining match with goals and a clear advantage for Sao Paulo.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Calleri
Penalty
Calleri
Yellow Card
Bahia
Yellow Card
Henrique
Yellow Card
Duarte
Henrique
Bahia
Luciano
Vitinho
Pedro Lima
Artur
Calleri
Paulinho
Carbonero
Mercado
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | +32 | 60 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 11 |  Sao Paulo | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | +1 | 36 |
| 12 |  Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 |  Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 |  Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
Match Statistics
Sao Paulo
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 2R. TolóiD
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 9J. CalleriF
- 10LucianoM
- 12IagoM
- 22Domingos DuarteD
- 23RafaelG
- 32Pedro LimaM
- 37ArturM
- 48D. FerreiraM
Substitutes
- 11FerreiraF
- 17André SilvaF
- 18WendellD
- 19Lucas RamonD
- 27Victor SáF
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 35SabinoD
- 43G. SantanaF
- 46Pedro FerreiraM
- 49Ryan FranciscoF
- 80CaulyM
- 94DanielzinhoM
Internacional
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 3G. MaripánD
- 6Matheus BahiaM
- 7J. CarboneroM
- 8Bruno HenriqueM
- 10Alan PatrickF
- 12AnthoniG
- 15Bruno GomesD
- 25G. MercadoD
- 26A. BernabéiM
- 27PaulinhoM
- 28VitinhoM
Substitutes
- 4F. TorresD
- 9AlerrandroF
- 16RonaldoM
- 17N. EliassonM
- 18JuninhoD
- 19A. SanabriaF
- 29Thiago MaiaM
- 31AllexM
- 35B. AguirreD
- 44Victor JoaoF
Sao Paulo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Tolói | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| R. Arboleda | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danielzinho | M | 26 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Domingos Duarte | D | 39 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Sabino | D | 51 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 17 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Ferreira | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Marcos Antônio | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Lima | M | 73 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/4 |
| Artur | M | 73 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Rafael | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luciano | M | 64 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ferreira | F | 17 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Silva | F | 17 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Calleri | F | 73 | 6.4 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Iago | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Santana | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wendell | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Sá | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cauly | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Coronel | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Francisco | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Ferreira | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Internacional
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Gomes | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 5/5 |
| G. Mercado | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Thiago Maia | M | 44 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| G. Maripán | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paulinho | M | 79 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| A. Bernabéi | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 2/5 |
| A. Sanabria | F | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| B. Aguirre | D | 20 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | M | 46 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Bahia | M | 46 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Allex | M | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| J. Carbonero | M | 88 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Vitinho | M | 70 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Alan Patrick | F | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 3 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Anthoni | G | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Eliasson | M | 2 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alerrandro | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Joao | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Torres | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ronaldo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juninho | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Sao Paulo vs Internacional?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sao Paulo to win against Internacional.
- What score did Fipster predict for Sao Paulo vs Internacional?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Sao Paulo 3–1 Internacional.
- What were the win probabilities for Sao Paulo vs Internacional?
- Fipster's model gave Sao Paulo a 95% chance of winning, Internacional a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.