Sao Paulo vs Gremio
Match recap
Sao Paulo beat Gremio 2–0 in their Serie A fixture. Moura and Calleri scored for Sao Paulo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 4.38 for Sao Paulo versus 0.31 for Gremio. Sao Paulo sit 9th in the Serie A table while Gremio are 18th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-0 Sao Paulo win
Actual
2–0
Outcome probability
Sao Paulo and Gremio face off in the third round of the regular season, with Sao Paulo looking to extend their recent home scoring streak. Both teams have had their struggles this season, but the home side's attacking edge and key players in form suggest a clear favourite.
Match factors
Sao Paulo's home attacking edge
Sao Paulo scores 1.6 goals per home game, significantly higher than Gremio's 0.6 away average, favoring a strong home attack
Jonathan Calleri's scoring form
Calleri has 10 goals this season with 3 in last 5 games at home, making him a key scoring threat
Sao Paulo missing key attackers
Luciano and Ferreira are confirmed out, reducing Sao Paulo's attacking options and increasing reliance on Calleri
Gremio's creative threat from Pavón
Pavón leads Gremio with 4 assists, providing creative spark and set-piece threat despite team's struggles
Sao Paulo's recent home scoring streak
Sao Paulo has scored in all last 5 home games, showing strong offensive momentum at home
The context
In this league phase, Sao Paulo sit 11th with a positive goal difference, while Gremio find themselves lower down the table in 18th place. Historically, their head-to-head meetings have been fairly balanced, but current form and home advantage tilt the scales towards Sao Paulo.
Key insights
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
Calleri has been in fine form at home, scoring 3 goals in his last 5 home games, making him a key threat against Gremio.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 25 appearances, 3 goals in last 5 home games
C. Pavón
Gremio
Pavón provides Gremio with creativity and set-piece threat, leading the team with 4 assists this season.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 26 appearances, avg 0.15 per game
- S
Sabino
Sao Paulo
Sabino’s solid defensive performances contribute to Sao Paulo’s stability at the back, crucial for keeping a clean sheet.
Serie A 26/27Consistent starter with above average tackling and interceptions
Analysis
Sao Paulo's offensive threat is spearheaded by Jonathan Calleri, who has netted 10 goals this season, including three in his last five home games. The team has scored in all of their last five home matches, showcasing consistent attacking momentum. Gremio, meanwhile, rely on creative winger C. Pavón for chances, but their away scoring average is significantly lower. Defensive stability for Sao Paulo, with players like Sabino, further supports their chances of a clean sheet.
Key facts
- 1.Sao Paulo currently rank 11th in the league with 36 points from 29 games.
- 2.Gremio are 18th with 30 points from 29 games, struggling for consistency.
- 3.Sao Paulo have a better goal difference by 7 goals compared to Gremio.
- 4.Jonathan Calleri is Sao Paulo's top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 5.Sao Paulo have scored in all of their last 5 home matches.
- 6.Gremio's leading assister is C. Pavón with 4 assists this season.
- 7.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Sao Paulo have won 6, Gremio 8, with 6 draws.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win with a 3-0 scoreline. Sao Paulo's dominance in attack and solid defensive display should see them comfortably outscore Gremio. While the exact margin is always a bit of a guessing game, the most probable outcome is a convincing victory for the home side.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sao Paulo
Away — Gremio
The verdict
Expect Sao Paulo to continue their strong home form and secure a comprehensive win over Gremio. With key players firing and a tactical advantage in attack, the home side should have little trouble adding three points to their tally.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:33 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Weverton
Yellow Card
Moura
Penalty
Bobadilla
Edenílson
Luciano
Yellow Card
Maia
Yellow Card
Wagner Leonardo
Yellow Card
Wagner Leonardo
Red Card
Wagner Leonardo
Yellow Card
Amuzu
Calleri
Assist: Luciano
Carlos Vinícius
João Pedro
Tetê
Franco
Moura
Luciano
Marcos Antônio
André Henrique
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
Match Statistics
Sao Paulo
4-3-1-2Starting XI
- 7Lucas MouraM
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 9J. CalleriF
- 10LucianoF
- 13E. DíazD
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 23RafaelG
- 28A. FrancoD
- 35SabinoD
- 94DanielzinhoM
Substitutes
- 2R. TolóiD
- 4DóriaD
- 11FerreiraF
- 14G. TapiaF
- 18WendellD
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 32N. FerraresiD
- 33LuanM
- 42MaikD
- 45Lucca Marques AlencarF
- 46Pedro FerreiraM
Gremio
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 8EdenílsonM
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 18João PedroD
- 19E. NoriegaM
- 21TetêF
- 23MarlonD
- 29ArthurM
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
Substitutes
- 4W. KannemannD
- 7C. PavónF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 17DodiM
- 37Gabriel MecF
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 39TiagoM
- 53Gustavo MartinsD
- 77André HenriqueF
- 88WillianM
- 99J. EnamoradoF
Sao Paulo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Antônio | M | 85 | 8.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Danielzinho | M | 97 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Sabino | D | 97 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Jonathan Calleri(C) | F | 97 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Enzo Díaz | D | 97 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 97 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Lucas Moura | M | 71 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Rafael | G | 97 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alan Franco | D | 70 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Luciano | F | 85 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/3 |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 32 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Rafael Tolói | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dória | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Coronel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maik | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucca | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wendell | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luan Santos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nahuel Ferraresi | D | 26 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ferreirinha | F | 12 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/4 |
| Pedro Ferreira | M | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Maia | M | 65 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Gonzalo Tapia | F | 27 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur(C) | M | 97 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Erick Noriega | M | 97 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Tetê | F | 68 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/6 |
| Fabián Balbuena | D | 97 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marlon | D | 97 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Francis Amuzu | F | 52 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edenilson | M | 40 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Weverton | G | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 68 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | 47 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro | D | 68 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Walter Kannemann | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiaguinho | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Paulista | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dodi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Rocha | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Mec | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cristian Pavón | F | 29 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| José Enamorado | F | 29 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Willian | M | 57 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Henrique | F | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 45 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Sao Paulo vs Gremio?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sao Paulo to win against Gremio.
- What score did Fipster predict for Sao Paulo vs Gremio?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Sao Paulo 3–0 Gremio.
- What were the win probabilities for Sao Paulo vs Gremio?
- Fipster's model gave Sao Paulo a 35% chance of winning, Gremio a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.