Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro
Match recap
Sao Paulo beat Cruzeiro 4–1 in their Serie A fixture. Calleri, Ferreira, Ferreira, and Ferreira scored for Sao Paulo; Christian replied for Cruzeiro. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.01 for Sao Paulo versus 1.52 for Cruzeiro. Sao Paulo sit 9th in the Serie A table while Cruzeiro are 3rd.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Sao Paulo win
Actual
4–1
Outcome probability
Sao Paulo and Cruzeiro face off in a league match where the home side's attacking firepower is expected to shine. With Sao Paulo's recent form and key players in good nick, this promises to be an entertaining contest.
Match factors
Sao Paulo's potent home attack led by Calleri
Calleri's 10 goals this season and strong home form give Sao Paulo a clear attacking edge at home
Matheus Pereira's dual threat for Cruzeiro
Pereira leads Cruzeiro with 9 goals and 5 assists, key to their scoring and chance creation
Cruzeiro's consistent scoring streak
Cruzeiro has scored in last 5 matches, showing attacking momentum despite away challenges
Cruzeiro missing key midfielder Lucas Romero
Romero is confirmed out, weakening Cruzeiro's midfield stability and creativity
Wendell's assist potential from left back
Wendell's 3 assists and set-piece role provide Sao Paulo with additional attacking options
The context
Both teams are mid-table contenders with Cruzeiro sitting slightly higher in the standings. Sao Paulo have a decent head-to-head record against Cruzeiro, having won 11 of their 20 encounters. This fixture is part of the regular season's 10th round, where every point counts.
Key insights
J. Calleri
Sao Paulo
Calleri's 10 goals this season and strong home form give Sao Paulo a clear attacking edge at home.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 25 apps, 3 goals in last 5 home games
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
Pereira leads Cruzeiro with 9 goals and 5 assists, key to their scoring and chance creation.
Serie A 26/279 goals and 5 assists in 26 apps
- L
Lucas Romero
Cruzeiro
Romero is out, weakening Cruzeiro's midfield stability and creativity.
Wendell
Sao Paulo
Wendell's 3 assists and set-piece role provide Sao Paulo with additional attacking options.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 20 apps
Analysis
Sao Paulo's offensive threat is led by J. Calleri, who boasts 10 goals this season and has been particularly effective at home, scoring 3 in his last 5 home games. Matheus Pereira is Cruzeiro's key man, contributing 9 goals and 5 assists, but the absence of their midfielder Lucas Romero weakens their midfield stability. Sao Paulo's left back Wendell adds an extra dimension with his 3 assists and set-piece deliveries. The predicted 3-1 scoreline aligns with Sao Paulo's strong home form and attacking consistency, while Cruzeiro's scoring streak suggests they won't be completely shut out.
Key facts
- 1.Sao Paulo have won 11 of 20 head-to-head matches against Cruzeiro.
- 2.Sao Paulo rank 9th in their league with 39 points from 30 games.
- 3.Cruzeiro rank 6th in their league with 48 points from 29 games.
- 4.J. Calleri is Sao Paulo's top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 5.Matheus Pereira leads Cruzeiro with 9 goals and 5 assists.
- 6.Cruzeiro's Lucas Romero is out, weakening their midfield.
- 7.Wendell has provided 3 assists for Sao Paulo this season.
- 8.Sao Paulo scored 4 goals to Cruzeiro's 1 in their recent match.
Prediction
Expect Sao Paulo to take control and secure a 3-1 victory. Their home advantage and attacking depth should prove decisive, with Calleri likely to be involved in the goals. Cruzeiro will find chances but ultimately fall short against a well-organised home side.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sao Paulo
Away — Cruzeiro
The verdict
In summary, Sao Paulo's attacking quality and home form make them favourites to win comfortably. Cruzeiro's resilience will be tested, but the hosts should have enough firepower to claim all three points in this league encounter.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:43 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Calleri
Penalty
Ferreira
Assist: Artur
William
Sabino
Matheus Henrique
Christian
Assist: Arroyo
Luciano
Ferreira
Red card cancelled
Wendell
Yellow Card
Gerson
Wendell
Arroyo
Calleri
Bobadilla
Fabrício Bruno
Kaio Jorge
Ferreira
Yellow Card
Ferreira
Assist: Marcos Antônio
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
Match Statistics
Sao Paulo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2R. TolóiD
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 9J. CalleriF
- 10LucianoM
- 11FerreiraM
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 18WendellD
- 23RafaelG
- 35SabinoD
- 37ArturM
Substitutes
- 4DóriaD
- 13E. DíazD
- 14G. TapiaF
- 17André SilvaF
- 21Cédric SoaresD
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 33LuanM
- 34P. dos SantosF
- 46Pedro FerreiraM
- 80CaulyM
- 94DanielzinhoM
Cruzeiro
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 6KaikiD
- 8Matheus HenriqueM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 11GersonM
- 12WilliamD
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 31Matheus CunhaG
- 88ChristianM
- 99K. ArroyoM
Substitutes
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 5WalaceM
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 22N. VillarealM
- 23FágnerD
- 34JonathanD
- 36Kauã PratesD
- 43João MarceloD
- 70KenjiF
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
- 91Francisco da CostaF
- 94WandersonF
Sao Paulo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferreirinha | M | 90 | 10.0 | 3 | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4/5 |
| Artur | M | 90 | 8.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Rafael | G | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Calleri(C) | F | 76 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Rafael Tolói | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Sabino | D | 45 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luciano | M | 60 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 77 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Marcos Antônio | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| Wendell | D | 68 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Gonzalo Tapia | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Coronel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danielzinho | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tetê | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Ferreira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cédric Soares | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luan Santos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Enzo Díaz | D | 22 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Silva | F | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cauly | M | 30 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Pablo Maia | M | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Dória | D | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Cruzeiro
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keny Arroyo | M | 68 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Christian | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1/2 |
| Gerson | M | 68 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Matheus Pereira(C) | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| William | D | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2/2 |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 83 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 83 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Matheus Cunha | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaiki | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Lucas Villalba | D | 90 | 4.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Kauã Prates | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaique Kenji | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Marcelo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walace | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fagner | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio Costa | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Jesus | D | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauã Moraes | D | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Wanderson | F | 22 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chico da Costa | F | 22 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Néiser Villarreal | M | 17 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sao Paulo to win against Cruzeiro.
- What score did Fipster predict for Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Sao Paulo 3–1 Cruzeiro.
- What were the win probabilities for Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster's model gave Sao Paulo a 95% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.