Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc
Match recap
Sao Paulo beat Chapecoense-sc 2–0 in their Serie A fixture. Luciano and Calleri scored for Sao Paulo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.53 for Sao Paulo versus 0.57 for Chapecoense-sc. Sao Paulo sit 9th in the Serie A table while Chapecoense-sc are 20th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-0 Sao Paulo win
Actual
2–0
Outcome probability
Sao Paulo and Chapecoense-sc face off in the fifth round of the regular season, with Sao Paulo looking to extend their home scoring streak and assert their league advantage.
Match factors
Key attackers missing for Sao Paulo
Luciano and Lucas Moura are confirmed out, reducing attacking options and increasing reliance on Calleri
Sao Paulo's home scoring streak
Sao Paulo has scored in all last 5 home games, showing strong attacking momentum at home
Wendell's assist threat from defense
Wendell's 3 assists this season exceed league average for defenders, adding creative edge
Jonathan Calleri's recent scoring form
Calleri scored 3 goals in last 5 games at home, indicating strong form for this fixture
The context
Sao Paulo currently sit 11th in the league with 36 points from 29 games, while Chapecoense-sc are 20th with 18 points from 28 games. Historically, Sao Paulo have a slight edge in their head-to-head meetings, having won 5 of 15 encounters.
Key insights
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
Top scorer with 10 goals this season and strong recent home scoring form, making him a key attacking threat.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 25 apps, 3 goals last 5 home games
Wendell
Sao Paulo
Leads the team in assists from defence with 3 this season, adding creative edge from the back.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 20 apps
Analysis
Sao Paulo's home form is impressive, having scored in all of their last five home games. Their top scorer, Jonathan Calleri, has netted 10 goals this season, including 3 in his last 5 home appearances, making him a key threat. Defensively, Sao Paulo are solid, with Sabino providing stability at the back. Chapecoense-sc, struggling near the bottom of the table, face an uphill battle against a team with a significantly better goal difference and points-per-game ratio.
Key facts
- 1.Sao Paulo are ranked 11th with 36 points from 29 games.
- 2.Chapecoense-sc are 20th with 18 points from 28 games.
- 3.Sao Paulo have a significantly better goal difference this season.
- 4.Jonathan Calleri is Sao Paulo's top scorer with 10 goals.
- 5.Sao Paulo have scored in all of their last 5 home games.
- 6.In 15 head-to-head meetings, Sao Paulo have won 5, Chapecoense-sc 4, with 6 draws.
- 7.Sao Paulo average 1.24 points per game compared to Chapecoense-sc's 0.64.
Prediction
The prediction is a 3-0 home win for Sao Paulo, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The match is expected to feature moderate discipline, with around four cards likely to be shown. Sao Paulo's attacking momentum and league superiority make them the clear favourites to secure a comfortable victory.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sao Paulo
Away — Chapecoense-sc
No standout top scorers flagged for Chapecoense-sc
The verdict
In summary, Sao Paulo's combination of strong home form, key player performances, and league standing suggest they will comfortably overcome Chapecoense-sc. Fans can expect a confident display and a solid 3-0 win to keep their season on track.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:36 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Carvalheira
Yellow Card
Marcinho
Luciano
Assist: Marcos Antônio
Calleri
Assist: Bobadilla
Bolasie
Carvalheira
Victor Caetano
Bobadilla
Moura
Luciano
Jean Carlos
Franco
Wendell
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Match Statistics
Sao Paulo
4-3-1-2Starting XI
- 7Lucas MouraM
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 9J. CalleriF
- 10LucianoF
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 18WendellD
- 23RafaelG
- 28A. FrancoD
- 35SabinoD
- 94DanielzinhoM
Substitutes
- 2R. TolóiD
- 4DóriaD
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 11FerreiraF
- 14G. TapiaF
- 17André SilvaF
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 33LuanM
- 42MaikD
- 56NicolasD
- 80CaulyM
Chapecoense-sc
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 3DomaD
- 7MarcinhoF
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 12Léo VieiraG
- 20Jean CarlosF
- 25Victor CaetanoD
- 26EvertonM
- 27CamiloM
- 33Bruno LeonardoD
- 37W. ClarM
- 99Rafael CarvalheiraM
Substitutes
- 1Rafael SantosG
- 4João PauloD
- 5João VitorM
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 18Neto PessoaF
- 19David AntunesM
- 22Higor MeritãoM
- 70RubensM
- 77ItaloF
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 97ÊnioM
Sao Paulo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luciano | F | 82 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | — |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 81 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| Jonathan Calleri(C) | F | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 4 | — |
| Alan Franco | D | 89 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Marcos Antônio | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Sabino | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Wendell | D | 89 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Rafael | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danielzinho | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Moura | M | 82 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Maik | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Tapia | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Arboleda | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolas Bosshardt | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ferreirinha | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luan Santos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Tolói | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dória | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Coronel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cauly | M | 8 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Silva | F | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Maia | M | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
Chapecoense-sc
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Vieira | G | 90 | 8.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Leonardo(C) | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Camilo | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Walter Clar | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Yannick Bolasie | F | 68 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Eduardo Doma | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcinho | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Jean Carlos | F | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Rafael Carvalheira | M | 68 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everton | M | 68 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Victor Caetano | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ênio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Paulo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Pacheco | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Santos | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Thyere | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Higor Meritão | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Antunes | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Italo | F | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Rubens Tadeu | M | 22 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Giovanni Augusto | M | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neto Pessoa | F | 22 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| João Vitor | M | 22 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sao Paulo to win against Chapecoense-sc.
- What score did Fipster predict for Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Sao Paulo 3–0 Chapecoense-sc.
- What were the win probabilities for Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster's model gave Sao Paulo a 95% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.