Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense
Leozinho's brace seals Atletico Paranaense win
Atletico Paranaense overturn Sao Paulo with a quickfire double after the break.
Sao Paulo took an early lead through Artur's strike in the 19th minute, but Atletico Paranaense responded immediately after the break with Leozinho scoring twice in quick succession at 46' and 51'. The 2-1 victory defied Fipster's prediction of a 1-1 draw, delivering a narrow win that caught the model off guard.
Analysis
Sao Paulo host Atletico Paranaense in a Brazilian Serie A regular season match that promises to be a closely contested affair. Both teams have shown attacking prowess and resilience, setting the stage for an entertaining encounter.
In the 2026 Serie A campaign, Sao Paulo currently sit 8th with 25 points from 18 games, while Atletico Paranaense hold 4th place with 30 points. Both sides have demonstrated competitive form in the league, making this fixture a key battle for positioning as the season progresses.
Sao Paulo's home form is bolstered by forwards like Ferreirinha, who recently scored a hat-trick and has been a consistent goal threat, alongside Luciano's strong scoring record. Midfield creativity from Marcos Antônio and defensive contributions from Wendell add balance to their play. Atletico Paranaense rely heavily on Kevin Viveros, their top scorer with 8 goals this season, who has been particularly effective away from home. Midfielder Gastón Benavídez also provides key assists and playmaking. Both teams have vulnerabilities and strengths that suggest a balanced contest, with defensive solidity and attacking flair on display.
Prediction
The prediction is a 1-1 draw, reflecting the closely matched nature of the teams. The halftime score is expected to be 0-0, consistent with a tight first half before both sides find the net in the second. The match is also likely to see around three cards, indicating a competitive but fair contest.
Outcome probability
Match factors
Sao Paulo's attacking midfield creativity
Midfielders like Marcos Antônio and Artur provide strong creative support to forwards, enhancing scoring chances.
Atletico Paranaense's top scorer in form
Kevin Viveros leads Atletico's attack with consistent goal scoring, posing a key threat to Sao Paulo's defense.
Ferreirinha's recent scoring surge
Ferreirinha's recent hat-trick and multiple goals boost Sao Paulo's offensive momentum at home.
Wendell's dual role impact
Wendell contributes both defensively and offensively with tackles and assists, crucial for Sao Paulo's balance.
Defensive vulnerabilities away for Atletico
Atletico concedes more goals away, Sao Paulo's home scoring form could exploit this weakness.
Key Takeaways
With both Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense boasting in-form attackers and solid midfield creativity, a draw seems the fairest outcome. Fans can expect a spirited match with goals from key players like Ferreirinha and Kevin Viveros, but neither side likely to dominate fully.
- Sao Paulo are 8th in the league with 25 points from 18 games (7 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses).
- Atletico Paranaense are 4th with 30 points from 18 games (9 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses).
- Ferreirinha has scored 5 goals in his last 7 matches, including a recent hat-trick.
- Kevin Viveros leads Atletico Paranaense with 8 goals this season, scoring 2 in the last 3 away games.
- Wendell has provided 3 assists in the last 10 matches, contributing both defensively and offensively.
- Marcos Antônio has 4 assists this season, adding creativity to Sao Paulo's midfield.
- Atletico Paranaense concede more goals away, which Sao Paulo's strong home scoring form could exploit.
- The modal total cards predicted for the match is 3, suggesting a moderately physical game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sao Paulo
Away — Atletico Paranaense
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Dias
Yellow Card
Artur
Tolói
Unknown
Leozinho
Dias
Leozinho
Assist: Esquivel
Calleri
Maia
Bobadilla
Unknown
Leozinho
Gilberto
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 11 |  Cruzeiro | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | -4 | 27 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 |  Vitoria | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
Match Statistics
Sao Paulo
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2R. TolóiD
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 9J. CalleriF
- 10LucianoF
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 18WendellD
- 19Lucas RamonD
- 23RafaelG
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 37ArturF
Substitutes
- 11FerreiraF
- 17André SilvaF
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 34P. dos SantosF
- 43G. SantanaM
- 48D. FerreiraM
- 54Osorio LuisD
- 56NicolasD
- 80CaulyM
- 94DanielzinhoM
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 7S. MendozaM
- 8João CruzF
- 9K. ViverosF
- 12GilbertoM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 16JádsonM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 23SantosG
- 33J. AguirreD
- 37L. EsquivelD
Substitutes
- 2GilbertoD
- 3LéoD
- 6DerikD
- 11IsaacF
- 22C. TeránD
- 26ClaudinhoD
- 27J. PortillaM
- 42Matheus SoaresG
- 53DuduM
- 63Diogo RiquelmeM
- 70Renan PeixotoF
Sao Paulo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Antônio | M | 93 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 4/5 |
| Robert Arboleda | D | 93 | 7.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Artur | F | 93 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/3 |
| Pablo Maia | M | 64 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Luciano | F | 93 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Rafael Tolói | D | 23 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Calleri(C) | F | 64 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Wendell | D | 93 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Rafael | G | 93 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 75 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Carlos Coronel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolas Bosshardt | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Santana | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tetê | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Djhordney Ferreira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cauly | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ferreirinha | F | 29 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/4 |
| André Silva | F | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Osorio | D | 70 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danielzinho | M | 19 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leozinho | F | 76 | 8.3 | 2 | — | 4 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Lucas Esquivel | D | 93 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Santos(C) | G | 93 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Felipe Aguirre | D | 93 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Gilberto | M | 83 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Luiz Gustavo | M | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Steven Mendoza | M | 93 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| João Cruz | F | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Dias | D | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jádson | M | 93 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Kevin Viveros | F | 93 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Léo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Derik | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Portilla | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogo Riquelme | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Soares | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dudu | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Claudinho | D | 48 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Carlos Terán | D | 48 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Isaac | F | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Gilberto Junior | D | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |