Santos vs Vasco DA Gama
Match recap
Santos beat Vasco DA Gama 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Neymar and Neymar scored for Santos; Cauan Barros replied for Vasco DA Gama. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.87 for Santos versus 1.39 for Vasco DA Gama. Santos sit 8th in the Serie A table while Vasco DA Gama are 13th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Santos win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
Santos and Vasco DA Gama face off in the fourth round of the regular season, with both sides eager to improve their league standings. The match promises an engaging contest, with Santos looking to leverage their recent scoring momentum and home advantage.
Match factors
Gabriel Barbosa's scoring threat against Vasco's defense
Gabriel Barbosa's 13 goals this season and strong recent away form give Santos a clear attacking edge.
Neymar's creative influence at home
Neymar's 3 assists and 8 goals, especially strong at home, boost Santos' chance to create scoring opportunities.
Andrés Gómez's key role for Vasco
Andrés Gómez leads Vasco's scoring with 5 goals and plays a pivotal midfield role, crucial for their attacking chances.
Santos' positive scoring streak
Santos has scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum heading into this fixture.
Santos missing key midfielder Arthur
Arthur is confirmed out, potentially reducing midfield creativity and passing options for Santos.
The context
Santos currently sit 8th in the league with 42 points, showing better form than Vasco DA Gama, who are 14th with 35 points. Historically, Santos have the upper hand in their head-to-head record, having won 9 of their 20 encounters, compared to Vasco's 6 wins and 5 draws.
Key insights
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
Gabriel Barbosa's 13 goals this season and strong recent away form give Santos a clear attacking edge.
Serie A 26/2713 goals in 22 apps, 5 goals last 5 games (away)
Neymar
Santos
Neymar's 3 assists and 8 goals, especially strong at home, boost Santos' chance to create scoring opportunities.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 13 apps, 0.23 assists per game
- A
Andrés Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
Andrés Gómez leads Vasco's scoring with 5 goals and plays a pivotal midfield role, crucial for their attacking chances.
Serie A 26/275 goals this season
Analysis
The first half is expected to be tightly contested, likely ending 1-1, reflecting the competitive nature of these two sides. Santos boast a positive goal difference of +2, while Vasco DA Gama have struggled with a -6 difference, hinting at defensive vulnerabilities. Key players such as Gabriel Barbosa, Santos' top scorer with 13 goals this season, and Neymar, their creative force with 3 assists, are poised to influence the outcome. Vasco's Andrés Gómez, leading their scoring with 5 goals, will be crucial to their attacking efforts. Santos' recent scoring streak and home form suggest they will pull ahead in the second half.
Key facts
- 1.Santos have won 9 of 20 matches against Vasco DA Gama, who have 6 wins and 5 draws.
- 2.Santos rank 8th in the league with 42 points from 29 games.
- 3.Vasco DA Gama are 14th with 35 points from 29 games.
- 4.Santos have a positive goal difference of +2; Vasco DA Gama have -6.
- 5.Gabriel Barbosa is Santos' top scorer with 13 goals this season.
- 6.Neymar has provided 3 assists and 8 goals for Santos this season.
- 7.Andrés Gómez leads Vasco DA Gama with 5 goals this season.
- 8.Santos have scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive form.
Prediction
We predict Santos to win 3-1, overcoming a balanced first half with a stronger second-half performance. The home side's attacking prowess and better league form should prove decisive against Vasco DA Gama.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Santos
Away — Vasco DA Gama
No standout top scorers flagged for Vasco DA Gama
The verdict
In summary, Santos are well placed to secure a convincing victory, continuing their positive run and capitalising on their home advantage. Vasco DA Gama will need to tighten their defence and find more attacking spark to challenge the hosts effectively.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:57 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Neymar
Assist: Moisés
Thiago Mendes
Yellow Card
Neymar
Yellow Card
Cauan Barros
Terceros
Moisés
Neymar
Piton
Nuno Moreira
Rojas
Spinelli
Arão
Gabriel Bontempo
Thiago Mendes
Thaciano
Match Statistics
Santos
4-4-2Starting XI
- 3Vinicius LiraD
- 10NeymarF
- 14Luan PeresD
- 15Willian ArãoM
- 16ThacianoF
- 18Igor ViniciusD
- 21MoisésM
- 30M. TercerosM
- 49Gabriel BontempoM
- 77Gabriel BrazãoG
- 98A. FríasD
Substitutes
- 1DiógenesG
- 2Zé IvaldoD
- 5João SchmidtM
- 6Zé RafaelM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 11RonyF
- 12MaykeD
- 19L. DíazF
- 22Á. BarrealM
- 25Gabriel MeninoM
- 31G. EscobarD
- 32B. RollheiserF
Vasco DA Gama
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 11A. GómezM
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 29J. RojasM
- 30Robert RenanD
- 77C. SpinelliF
- 88Cauan BarrosM
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
Substitutes
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 7DavidF
- 9Matheus FrançaF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 20BrennerF
- 25Hugo MouraM
- 28AdsonF
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 60V. JoaoF
- 66CuiabanoD
Santos
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neymar(C) | F | 90 | 9.3 | 2 | — | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2/5 |
| Vinicius Rodrigues Lira | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Adonis Frías | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Igor Vinícius | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Willian Arão | M | 78 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thaciano | F | 84 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Miguelito | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Luan Peres | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Brazão | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Bontempo | M | 78 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Moisés | M | 60 | 6.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lautaro Díaz | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Escobar | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mayke | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogenes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Ivaldo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamín Rollheiser | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Barbosa | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Rafael | M | 12 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Menino | M | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| João Schmidt | M | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rony | F | 30 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Álvaro Barreal | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cauan Barros | M | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Robert Renan | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Mendes | M | 84 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Andrés Gómez | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 7/11 |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 5/8 |
| Johan Rojas | M | 70 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 3/4 |
| Nuno Moreira | M | 70 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Alan Saldivia | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Lucas Piton | D | 70 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Léo Jardim(C) | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Claudio Spinelli | F | 75 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Daniel Fuzato | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Moura | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Vitor Silva | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Puma Rodríguez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus França | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adson | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tchê Tchê | M | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David | F | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Marino Hinestroza | F | 20 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Brenner | F | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cuiabano | D | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Santos vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Santos to win against Vasco DA Gama.
- What score did Fipster predict for Santos vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Santos 3–1 Vasco DA Gama.
- What were the win probabilities for Santos vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's model gave Santos a 54% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 54% confidence — a medium-confidence call.