Santos vs Sao Paulo
Match recap
Santos and Sao Paulo drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Zé Rafael scored for Santos; Calleri replied for Sao Paulo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.18 for Santos versus 0.64 for Sao Paulo. Santos sit 8th in the Serie A table while Sao Paulo are 9th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-0 Santos win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
Santos and Sao Paulo face off in the second round of the regular season, with Santos looking to assert their attacking prowess. Both teams have had mixed fortunes recently, but Santos' offensive firepower stands out.
Match factors
Santos' attacking duo in strong form
Gabriel Barbosa and Neymar lead Santos' attack with high goal and assist rates, providing a potent offensive threat.
Sao Paulo missing key attacker Luciano
Luciano, a top scorer for Sao Paulo, is confirmed out, weakening their attacking options significantly.
Gabriel Barbosa's prolific away scoring
Barbosa has scored 5 goals in last 5 away games, well above league average for attackers.
Santos' recent scoring streak
Santos have scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum at home and away.
Sao Paulo's attack weakened by injuries
Sao Paulo's confirmed absences include key attackers Luciano and Ferreira, reducing goal threat potential.
The context
This fixture is part of the 2026 regular season, round 2. Santos currently sit higher in the league standings than Sao Paulo, who have struggled with injuries to key attackers. The historical head-to-head record is fairly balanced, but recent form and squad availability tip the scales.
Key insights
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
Gabriel Barbosa leads Santos' attack with 13 goals this season and has scored 5 in his last 5 away games, making him a constant threat.
Serie A 26/2713 goals in 22 apps, 5 goals last 5 games
Neymar
Santos
Neymar contributes both goals and creativity with 8 goals and 3 assists this season, providing a strong home scoring record.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 13 apps, 3 assists in 13 apps
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
Jonathan Calleri is Sao Paulo's top scorer with 10 goals but the team is weakened by the absence of other key attackers.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 25 apps
Analysis
Santos boast a potent attacking duo in Gabriel Barbosa and Neymar, who have been in excellent form this season. Barbosa, the top scorer with 13 goals, has netted five in his last five away games, while Neymar contributes both goals and creativity. Sao Paulo, on the other hand, are missing key attackers Luciano and Ferreira due to injury, which significantly weakens their offensive threat. This imbalance is likely to be decisive, especially as Santos have scored in their last five matches, showing strong momentum.
Key facts
- 1.Santos are ranked 8th in the league with 42 points from 29 games (W11 D9 L9).
- 2.Sao Paulo are ranked 11th with 36 points from 29 games (W10 D6 L13).
- 3.Gabriel Barbosa is Santos' top scorer with 13 goals this season.
- 4.Santos have scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive form.
- 5.Sao Paulo's key attackers Luciano and Ferreira are confirmed out due to injury.
- 6.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Santos have won 6, Sao Paulo 9, with 5 draws.
- 7.The predicted halftime score is 1-0 in favour of Santos.
- 8.The modal fulltime scoreline for a Santos win is 3-0.
Prediction
We predict a commanding home win for Santos with a 3-0 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 1-0, reflecting Santos' ability to take an early lead and build on it. The match is also likely to see around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Santos
Away — Sao Paulo
The verdict
In summary, Santos' attacking strength and Sao Paulo's injury woes set the stage for a comfortable victory for the home side. Fans can expect a lively match with Santos asserting their dominance from the outset.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:23 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Frías
Yellow Card
Rony
Yellow Card
Franco
Yellow Card
Zé Rafael
Frías
Zé Rafael
Yellow Card
Tapia
Franco
Maia
Calleri
Assist: Moura
Zé Rafael
João Schmidt
Yellow Card
Escobar
Yellow Card
Barreal
Bobadilla
Rony
Gabriel Menino
Maik
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
Match Statistics
Santos
4-4-2Starting XI
- 5João SchmidtM
- 6Zé RafaelM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 11RonyF
- 12MaykeD
- 14Luan PeresD
- 22Á. BarrealM
- 25Gabriel MeninoM
- 31G. EscobarD
- 77Gabriel BrazãoG
- 98A. FríasD
Substitutes
- 1DiógenesG
- 2Zé IvaldoD
- 3Vinicius LiraD
- 7Nikita SolodchenkoF
- 8T. RincónM
- 13João BassoD
- 18Igor ViniciusD
- 19L. DíazF
- 29Tiquinho SoaresF
- 30M. TercerosM
- 32B. RollheiserF
- 49Gabriel BontempoM
Sao Paulo
5-3-2Starting XI
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 9J. CalleriF
- 13E. DíazD
- 14G. TapiaF
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 23RafaelG
- 28A. FrancoD
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 35SabinoD
- 42MaikD
- 94DanielzinhoM
Substitutes
- 4DóriaD
- 7Lucas MouraF
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 10LucianoF
- 11FerreiraF
- 18WendellD
- 21Cédric SoaresD
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 32N. FerraresiD
- 33LuanM
- 45Lucca Marques AlencarF
- 46Pedro FerreiraM
Santos
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro Barreal | M | 80 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4/7 |
| Luan Peres | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Rafael | M | 70 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Gabriel Barbosa(C) | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Schmidt | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| Gabriel Menino | M | 88 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Adonis Frías | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Gonzalo Escobar | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Mayke | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Brazão | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rony | F | 88 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Tiquinho Soares | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogenes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robinho Júnior | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Vinícius | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vinicius Rodrigues Lira | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Ivaldo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Rincón | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamín Rollheiser | F | 10 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Gabriel Bontempo | M | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lautaro Díaz | F | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Basso | D | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Miguelito | M | 20 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
Sao Paulo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Calleri(C) | F | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Danielzinho | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Robert Arboleda | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sabino | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maik | D | 89 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 84 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Alan Franco | D | 61 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Tapia | F | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Pablo Maia | M | 62 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Enzo Díaz | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lucca | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Ferreira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dória | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Coronel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ferreirinha | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cédric Soares | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wendell | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Moura | F | 29 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Nahuel Ferraresi | D | 9 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Antônio | M | 28 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Luan Santos | M | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Luciano | F | 29 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Santos vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Santos to win against Sao Paulo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Santos vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Santos 3–0 Sao Paulo.
- What were the win probabilities for Santos vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster's model gave Santos a 95% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.