Santos vs Fluminense
Match recap
Fluminense beat Santos 3–2 in their Serie A fixture. Barbosa and Barreal scored for Santos; Savarino, Castillo, and John Kennedy replied for Fluminense. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.30 for Santos versus 0.64 for Fluminense. Santos sit 8th in the Serie A table while Fluminense are 5th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-2 Santos win
Actual
2–3
Outcome probability
This Regular Season - 12 fixture promises a lively contest between Santos and Fluminense, two sides with plenty to play for as the campaign progresses. Expect attacking football and a close scoreline.
Match factors
Gabriel Barbosa's scoring threat
Gabriel Barbosa leads Santos with 14 goals and strong recent form, likely to exploit Fluminense's defense
Neymar's creative influence
Neymar's 3 assists and set-piece role boost Santos' attacking creativity
Fluminense's attacking depth
Fluminense has multiple scorers like John Kennedy and Savarino contributing goals, providing varied threats
Santos' recent scoring streak
Santos has scored in last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum
Full squad availability
No confirmed injuries for either team, both squads at full strength for key players
The context
Both teams have shown strong form this season, with Fluminense sitting 4th in the league and Santos 8th. Their head-to-head record is evenly matched, making this a tantalising encounter with plenty at stake in the league standings.
Key insights
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
Gabriel Barbosa leads Santos with 14 goals and strong recent form, likely to exploit Fluminense's defence.
Serie A 26/2714 goals in 22 apps, 0.64 goals/game
Neymar
Santos
Neymar's 3 assists and set-piece role boost Santos' attacking creativity and goal threat at home.
Serie A 26/278 goals and 3 assists in 13 apps, 0.62 goals/game
Jefferson Savarino
Fluminense
Savarino's recent scoring form with 3 goals in last 5 games makes him a key attacking threat for Fluminense.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 22 apps, 0.27 goals/game
Hulk
Fluminense
Hulk's physical presence and 6 goals in 11 games provide Fluminense with a strong counter-attacking option.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 11 apps, 0.55 goals/game
Analysis
Santos boast a potent attacking threat led by Gabriel Barbosa, who has netted 14 goals this season and is in fine recent form. Neymar's creativity and goal-scoring prowess at home add further firepower. Fluminense, meanwhile, have multiple attacking options including John Kennedy and Jefferson Savarino, ensuring they won't be easy to contain. The match is expected to be a high-scoring affair with both sides pushing forward, but Santos' home advantage and attacking momentum give them the edge.
Key facts
- 1.Santos and Fluminense have met 20 times with 7 wins each and 6 draws.
- 2.Santos are currently 8th in the league with 42 points from 30 games.
- 3.Fluminense sit 4th with 51 points and a superior goal difference.
- 4.Gabriel Barbosa is Santos' top scorer with 14 goals this season.
- 5.Neymar has contributed 8 goals and 3 assists, showing strong home form.
- 6.Fluminense's John Kennedy leads their scoring with 9 goals.
- 7.Santos have scored in their last 5 matches, showing good offensive form.
Prediction
We predict a 3-2 victory for Santos, with the home side leading 2-1 at halftime. The match should be closely contested, but Santos' attacking quality and recent scoring streak should see them edge out Fluminense in a thrilling encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Santos
Away — Fluminense
The verdict
In what promises to be a captivating match, Santos' attacking stars are likely to shine and secure a narrow win. Fluminense will provide stern resistance, but the home side's momentum and firepower should prove decisive.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:39 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Barbosa
Igor Vinicius
Yellow Card
Savarino
Assist: Castillo
Henrique Pereira
Yellow Card
Bernal
Yellow Card
Barbosa
Yellow Card
Alisson
Yellow Card
Moisés
Barreal
Assist: Barbosa
Alisson
Castillo
Assist: Guga
Barreal
Veríssimo
Yellow Card
Bernal
Savarino
Henrique Pereira
John Kennedy
Assist: Guga
Castillo
Serna
Peres
Yellow Card
Gabriel Bontempo
Otávio
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
Match Statistics
Santos
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4Lucas VeríssimoD
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 10NeymarM
- 14Luan PeresD
- 15Willian ArãoM
- 18Igor ViniciusD
- 21MoisésM
- 22Á. BarrealD
- 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
- 49Gabriel BontempoM
- 77Gabriel BrazãoG
Substitutes
- 1DiógenesG
- 5João SchmidtM
- 6Zé RafaelM
- 7Nikita SolodchenkoF
- 12MaykeD
- 16ThacianoM
- 19L. DíazF
- 28C. OlivaM
- 30M. TercerosM
- 32B. RollheiserF
- 38Rafael GonzagaD
- 98A. FríasD
Fluminense
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 3JemmesD
- 5F. BernalM
- 11J. SavarinoF
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 19R. CastilloF
- 22J. FreytesD
- 23GugaD
- 25AlissonM
- 35HérculesM
- 90K. SernaF
Substitutes
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 4IgnacioD
- 6RenêD
- 9John KennedyF
- 10PH GansoM
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 27MarceloG
- 28RiquelmeF
- 29J. MillánD
- 46Julio FidelisD
- 94OtávioM
Santos
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Barbosa | F | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Neymar(C) | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/7 |
| Gabriel Bontempo | M | 89 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Willian Arao | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Álvaro Barreal | D | 61 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Gustavo Henrique Pereira | M | 81 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Moisés | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luan Peres | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Vinícius | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Gabriel Brazão | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Veríssimo | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Robinho Júnior | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Oliva | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ze Rafael | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mayke | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adonis Frías | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joao Schmidt | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguelito | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogenes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamín Rollheiser | F | 9 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Rafael Gonzaga | D | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Thaciano | M | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Lautaro Díaz | F | 29 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guga | D | 90 | 8.2 | — | 2 | — | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| Rodrigo Castillo | F | 87 | 7.9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Jefferson Savarino | F | 80 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Hércules | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Jemmes | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Facundo Bernal | M | 80 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Juan Freytes | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kevin Serna | F | 87 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Fábio(C) | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Alisson | M | 58 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Julián Millán | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Pitaluga | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Júlio Fidelis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wesley Natã | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Rabello | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ignácio | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Xavier | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John Kennedy | F | 32 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Rene | D | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Felipe | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Ganso | M | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio | M | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Santos vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Santos to win against Fluminense.
- What score did Fipster predict for Santos vs Fluminense?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Santos 3–2 Fluminense.
- What were the win probabilities for Santos vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's model gave Santos a 64% chance of winning, Fluminense a 18% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 64% confidence — a medium-confidence call.