Santos vs Flamengo
Santos claw back to deny Flamengo victory
Neymar's double penalties rescue a draw in a pulsating Serie A clash
Flamengo looked set to take all three points with goals from Danilo and Lucas Paquetá just before half-time, but Santos refused to lie down. Neymar stepped up twice in the second half to convert penalties and secure a 2-2 draw. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of an away win, proving Santos' resilience on home turf.
Outcome probability
The upcoming match between Santos and Flamengo promises an exciting contest as both teams look to assert their dominance in the league. Flamengo, currently top of the table, face a determined Santos side aiming to climb higher in the standings.
Match factors
Gabriel Barbosa's scoring prowess
Gabriel Barbosa leads Santos with 11 goals in 19 games, showing strong recent away form with 3 goals in last 5 away matches.
Flamengo missing key midfield creators
Flamengo will miss Samuel Lino and Lucas Paquetá due to suspension, reducing midfield creativity and assist potential.
Santos' attacking midfield support
Álvaro Barreal and Benjamín Rollheiser provide goal and assist support to Gabriel Barbosa, enhancing Santos' attacking threat.
Flamengo's strong recent form
Flamengo has a 64% win rate with consistent scoring in last 5 matches, indicating strong momentum despite missing players.
Pedro's consistent scoring for Flamengo
Pedro is Flamengo's top scorer with 14 goals, maintaining consistent threat especially at home with 4 goals in last 10 games.
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season's 29th round, with Flamengo leading the league on 57 points and Santos sitting in 8th place with 38 points. The form gap is evident, but Santos will be keen to challenge the leaders and close the points difference.
Key insights
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
Gabriel Barbosa leads Santos with 11 goals and has been particularly effective away from home, scoring 3 goals in his last 5 away matches.
Serie A 26/2711 goals in 19 appearances, 0.58 goals/game
Pedro
Flamengo
Pedro is Flamengo's top scorer with 14 goals, maintaining consistent threat especially at home with 4 goals in his last 10 games.
Serie A 26/2714 goals in 26 appearances, 0.54 goals/game
- J
Jorge Carrascal Guardo
Flamengo
Jorge Carrascal Guardo has been a key creative force with 6 assists this season, including 3 in the last 5 games, crucial for Flamengo's attacking transitions.
Serie A 26/276 assists in 20 appearances, 0.3 assists/game
- S
Samuel Lino
Flamengo
Samuel Lino's suspension is a blow to Flamengo's creativity, as he is their top assister with 7 assists this season.
Serie A 26/277 assists in current season
Analysis
Flamengo's strong recent form and superior league position give them the edge, with their top scorer Pedro netting 14 goals this season. Santos rely heavily on Gabriel Barbosa, who has 11 goals and good recent away form. Flamengo's midfield creativity will be slightly hampered by the absence of Samuel Lino and Lucas Paquetá due to suspension, but their attacking threat remains potent. The head-to-head record favours Flamengo, who have won 12 of the last 20 encounters, and the average goals per match between these sides is a healthy 3.1, suggesting an open game with goals.
Key facts
- 1.Flamengo lead the league with 57 points; Santos are 8th with 38 points.
- 2.Flamengo have won 12 of the last 20 matches against Santos.
- 3.Average goals per match in their head-to-head is 3.1, indicating attacking play.
- 4.Gabriel Barbosa is Santos' top scorer with 11 goals in 19 games.
- 5.Pedro leads Flamengo with 14 goals in 26 appearances.
- 6.Flamengo will miss key midfielders Samuel Lino and Lucas Paquetá due to suspension.
- 7.Flamengo have a 64% win rate in their last five matches.
Prediction
We expect Flamengo to take an early lead, reflected in a predicted halftime score of 0-1. Despite Santos' efforts to respond, Flamengo's consistency and attacking quality should see them secure a 2-1 victory by full time. The match is likely to feature a few cards, with a total of three predicted.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Santos
Away — Flamengo
The verdict
In summary, Flamengo's superior form and attacking prowess make them favourites to claim all three points. Santos will provide a stern test, but the visitors' ability to score and maintain a lead should ultimately prevail in this intriguing regular season fixture.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 23:32 UTC · Fipster Model v1.161
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Escobar
Yellow Card
Henrique Pereira
Yellow Card
Barreal
Yellow Card
Pedro
Yellow Card
Danilo
Assist: Pedro
Paquetá
Assist: Carrascal
Coutinho
Barreal
Neymar
Yellow Card
Paquetá
Yellow Card
Oliva
Yellow Card
Rodinei
Yellow Card
Henrique Pereira
Escobar
Paquetá
Carrascal
Penalty confirmed
Jorginho
Red Card
Pedro
Lino
Neymar
Penalty
Bruno Henrique
Yellow Card
Neymar
Penalty
Emerson Royal
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Santos
4-4-1-1Starting XI
- 1DiógenesG
- 4Lucas VeríssimoD
- 8Gabriel BontempoM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 11Philippe CoutinhoM
- 15Willian ArãoD
- 22Á. BarrealM
- 23RodineiD
- 28C. OlivaM
- 31G. EscobarD
- 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
Substitutes
- 5João SchmidtM
- 10NeymarF
- 14Luan PeresD
- 16ThacianoM
- 18Igor ViniciusD
- 25Gabriel MeninoM
- 30M. TercerosM
- 32B. RollheiserF
- 33RonyF
- 34João PauloG
- 45LimaM
- 81S. PierriM
Flamengo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. RossiG
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 9PedroF
- 11Lucas PaquetáM
- 13DaniloD
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 21JorginhoM
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 26Alex SandroD
Substitutes
- 7Luiz AraújoF
- 8SaúlM
- 14A. ValenciaF
- 18N. de la CruzM
- 19G. PlataF
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 30J. FreitasF
- 42AndrewG
- 44VitãoD
- 49DyogoG
- 77Johnny GóesD
Santos
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neymar | F | 44 | 8.5 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Diógenes | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Veríssimo | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Rony | F | 44 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Barbosa | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| B. Rollheiser | F | 24 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gustavo Henrique Pereira | M | 66 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Bontempo | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| C. Oliva | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Willian Arão | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Escobar | D | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Luan Peres | D | 21 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Philippe Coutinho | M | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Á. Barreal | M | 46 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Rodinei | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Thaciano | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Schmidt | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lima | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Menino | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Terceros | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Pierri | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Vinicius | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Paulo | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Flamengo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 69 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| J. Carrascal | M | 69 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 5 | 1/3 |
| Danilo | D | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Léo Pereira | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro | F | 81 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Emerson Royal | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/2 |
| Luiz Araújo | F | 9 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| E. Pulgar | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Plata | F | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 4 | 2 | — | 1/3 |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 9 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Saúl | M | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorginho | M | 79 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Alex Sandro | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| A. Rossi | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dyogo | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Valencia | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitão | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. de la Cruz | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Freitas | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Johnny Góes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Santos vs Flamengo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Flamengo to win against Santos.
- What score did Fipster predict for Santos vs Flamengo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Santos 1–2 Flamengo.
- What were the win probabilities for Santos vs Flamengo?
- Fipster's model gave Santos a 10% chance of winning, Flamengo a 80% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 80% confidence — a high-confidence call.