Santos vs Corinthians
Match recap
Santos and Corinthians drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Barbosa scored for Santos; Depay replied for Corinthians. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.03 for Santos versus 0.33 for Corinthians. Santos sit 8th in the Serie A table while Corinthians are 17th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Santos win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
Santos and Corinthians face off in a regular season clash where the home side is expected to assert their dominance. With both teams showing contrasting form and attacking capabilities, this match promises plenty of action and goals.
Match factors
Santos' potent forward duo advantage
Gabriel Barbosa and Neymar combine high scoring and assist rates, creating a dual threat Corinthians struggle to contain.
Santos' superior recent scoring form
Santos averages 1.55 goals per game with a strong recent scoring streak, outpacing Corinthians' 1.03 average.
Corinthians missing key attackers
Rodrigo Garro and Kaio César are confirmed out, weakening Corinthians' attacking options and creativity.
Santos' strong away winning streak
Santos has won their last 5 away games, showing strong form momentum heading into this fixture.
Corinthians defensive doubts with doubtful Ramalho
André Ramalho's doubtful status may weaken Corinthians' defense, increasing Santos' scoring chances.
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season's sixth round, with Santos currently positioned higher in the league standings than Corinthians. The visitors are grappling with some key absences, which could hamper their attacking threat, while Santos boast a potent forward line and solid recent performances.
Key insights
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
Gabriel Barbosa is the spearhead of Santos' attack, boasting 13 goals this season and an impressive run of 5 goals in his last 5 away games, making him a constant threat.
Serie A 26/2713 goals in 22 apps, 5 goals last 5 games away
Neymar
Santos
Neymar combines goal scoring and creativity with 8 goals and 3 assists, particularly effective at home, enhancing Santos' attacking options.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 13 apps, 3 assists in 13 apps
- R
Rodrigo Garro
Corinthians
Corinthians' attacking creativity is hampered by the absence of Rodrigo Garro, who is out due to suspension, weakening their forward options.
Serie A 26/27High yellow card rate (0.33 per game), out due to suspension
- A
André Ramalho
Corinthians
André Ramalho's doubtful status raises concerns over Corinthians' defensive solidity, potentially giving Santos an edge in attack.
Serie A 26/27Experienced defender with good passing stats, doubtful status
Analysis
Santos have demonstrated strong scoring form this season, averaging over 1.5 goals per game, and their attacking duo of Gabriel Barbosa and Neymar are in fine fettle. Barbosa leads the scoring charts with 13 goals, including five in his last five away games, while Neymar adds creativity and finishing ability, particularly at home. Corinthians, on the other hand, are missing key attackers Rodrigo Garro and Kaio César, which diminishes their offensive options. Defensive doubts linger for Corinthians with André Ramalho's doubtful status, potentially exposing them to Santos' attacking threats. The statistical edge and player availability suggest Santos will control the game and secure a comfortable win.
Key facts
- 1.Santos currently rank 8th in the league with 42 points from 29 games.
- 2.Corinthians sit 16th with 32 points from 29 games.
- 3.Santos have a better goal difference by 6 goals compared to Corinthians this season.
- 4.Gabriel Barbosa is Santos' top scorer with 13 goals this season.
- 5.Neymar has contributed 8 goals and 3 assists, showing strong home form.
- 6.Corinthians are missing key attackers Rodrigo Garro and Kaio César due to injury.
- 7.The most probable full-time scoreline is 3-1 in favour of Santos.
- 8.The predicted halftime score is 1-0, aligning with the final outcome.
Prediction
We predict Santos to take an early lead by halftime, going 1-0 up, and extend their advantage to a 3-1 victory by full time. The match is expected to feature moderate disciplinary action, with around four cards likely to be shown. Santos' attacking quality and Corinthians' weakened lineup make this outcome the most probable.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Santos
Away — Corinthians
The verdict
In summary, Santos' superior form, attacking firepower, and Corinthians' injury setbacks point towards a confident home win. Expect a lively encounter with Santos ultimately prevailing 3-1, much to the delight of their supporters.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:52 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kaio César
Yellow Card
Depay
Assist: Kaio César
Barbosa
Assist: Neymar
Barreal
Yellow Card
Rony
Yellow Card
Andre
Kaio César
Gabriel Bontempo
Barreal
Barbosa
Oliva
Henrique Pereira
Carrillo
Rollheiser
Yellow Card
Peres
Yellow Card
Peres
Red Card
Peres
Yellow Card
Gustavo Henrique
Yellow Card
Raniele
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
Match Statistics
Santos
3-1-4-2Starting XI
- 2Zé IvaldoD
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 10NeymarF
- 11RonyM
- 14Luan PeresD
- 22Á. BarrealM
- 28C. OlivaM
- 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
- 49Gabriel BontempoM
- 77Gabriel BrazãoG
- 98A. FríasD
Substitutes
- 1DiógenesG
- 3Vinicius LiraD
- 4Lucas VeríssimoD
- 5João SchmidtM
- 15Willian ArãoM
- 16ThacianoM
- 18Igor ViniciusD
- 19L. DíazF
- 21MoisésF
- 25Gabriel MeninoM
- 31G. EscobarD
- 32B. RollheiserF
Corinthians
4-3-2-1Starting XI
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 7BrenoM
- 10M. DepayF
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 14RanieleM
- 19A. CarrilloM
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 37Kaio CésarM
- 49AndreM
Substitutes
- 5André RamalhoD
- 8R. GarroM
- 11VitinhoF
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 20P. MilansD
- 23Matheus PereiraM
- 26F. AngileriD
- 29AllanM
- 31KaykeF
- 35CharlesM
- 51Kauê CamargoG
- 56Guilherme InácioF
Santos
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Barbosa | F | 72 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Christian Oliva | M | 78 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Gabriel Bontempo | M | 65 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Neymar(C) | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 4 | 0/3 |
| Zé Ivaldo | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Gustavo Henrique Pereira | M | 78 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Adonis Frías | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Brazão | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rony | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Álvaro Barreal | M | 71 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Luan Peres | D | 87 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| João Schmidt | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lautaro Díaz | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Moisés | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogenes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Escobar | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Vinícius | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Veríssimo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Willian Arão | M | 25 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thaciano | M | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamín Rollheiser | F | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Gabriel Menino | M | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vinicius Rodrigues Lira | D | 19 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Corinthians
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Carrillo | M | 79 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Memphis Depay | F | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/4 |
| Hugo Souza | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Breno Bidon | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Kaio César | M | 63 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Gustavo Henrique(C) | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Raniele | M | 89 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheuzinho | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Matheus Bidu | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| André Luiz | M | 62 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Gabriel Paulista | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Kauê | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Ramalho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Milans | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gui Negão | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Charles | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrizio Angileri | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 11 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Raul | F | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Garro | M | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Kayke Ferrari | F | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/4 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Santos vs Corinthians?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Santos to win against Corinthians.
- What score did Fipster predict for Santos vs Corinthians?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Santos 3–1 Corinthians.
- What were the win probabilities for Santos vs Corinthians?
- Fipster's model gave Santos a 71% chance of winning, Corinthians a 14% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 71% confidence — a high-confidence call.