San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City
Match recap
San Jose Earthquakes beat Sporting Kansas City 3–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Munie, Judd, and Munie scored for San Jose Earthquakes. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 3.03 for San Jose Earthquakes versus 0.45 for Sporting Kansas City. San Jose Earthquakes sit 4th in the Major League Soccer table while Sporting Kansas City are 15th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-2 San Jose Earthquakes win
Actual
3–0
Outcome probability
The 2026 MLS season kicks off with an exciting clash between San Jose Earthquakes and Sporting Kansas City. Both teams boast attacking talents, promising a high-scoring encounter to get the campaign underway.
Match factors
San Jose's attacking trio in strong form
Preston Judd leads with 15 goals and strong recent scoring; supported by Bouda and Munie adding goals from midfield and defense
Nikolas Tsakiris key creative hub
Tsakiris leads assists for San Jose with 7, showing strong recent form and connection to Judd
San Jose missing key defenders and midfielders
Confirmed outs include Jones and Roberts in defense and Skahan in midfield, impacting defensive stability and midfield creativity
André Luiz's recent scoring surge for Sporting KC
André Luiz scored 8 goals in last 6 games, but doubtful status caps scoring probability
San Jose's positive scoring streak at home
San Jose has scored in last 5 home games, supporting predicted 3 goals in this match
The context
This is the first round of the regular season, where early momentum can set the tone. San Jose Earthquakes have demonstrated stronger league form and goal difference compared to Sporting Kansas City, who will be looking to upset the odds despite a recent scoring surge from André Luiz.
Key insights
Preston Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
Judd is the league's top scorer with 15 goals, including 4 in his last 5 games, making him a key threat at home.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 25 apps, 0.6 avg per game
Nikolas Tsakiris
San Jose Earthquakes
Tsakiris leads assists with 7 and has been in excellent recent form, crucial for creating chances for Judd.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 19 apps, 0.37 avg per game
Daniel Munie
San Jose Earthquakes
Munie offers an unusual goal threat from defence with 4 goals this season, including 2 in this fixture.
Major League Soccer 26/274 goals in 25 apps, 0.16 avg per game
André Luiz
Sporting Kansas City
Luiz has been on fire with 8 goals in 6 games recently, but his doubtful status may limit his impact.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals in 6 apps, 1.33 avg per game (recent)
Analysis
San Jose's attacking trio, led by Preston Judd with 15 goals this season, supported by Ousseni Bouda and Daniel Munie, provides a potent offensive threat. Nikolas Tsakiris orchestrates play with seven assists, linking well with Judd. Sporting Kansas City's André Luiz has been in remarkable scoring form recently, but his doubtful status may limit impact. San Jose's home scoring streak and superior points-per-game advantage suggest they will edge this encounter, though Sporting Kansas City's resilience could keep it close.
Key facts
- 1.San Jose Earthquakes have a notable points-per-game advantage over Sporting Kansas City (1.64 vs 0.79).
- 2.Head-to-head matches between these teams average 3.3 total goals, supporting a high-scoring prediction.
- 3.Preston Judd leads San Jose with 15 goals this season, including strong recent form.
- 4.Nikolas Tsakiris is the top assister for San Jose with 7 assists, showing excellent recent form.
- 5.Daniel Munie, a defender, contributes offensively with 4 goals this season, including 2 in this fixture.
- 6.André Luiz has scored 8 goals in his last 6 games but is doubtful for this match.
- 7.San Jose has scored in their last 5 home games, indicating strong attacking momentum.
Prediction
We predict a 3-2 victory for San Jose Earthquakes. The halftime scoreline is expected to be 2-1, reflecting a competitive first half with San Jose holding a slight edge. The match should feature around four cards, indicating a lively but controlled contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — San Jose Earthquakes
Away — Sporting Kansas City
The verdict
Expect an entertaining opener with both teams pushing forward. San Jose's attacking depth and home form should see them through, but Sporting Kansas City's recent goal-scoring form means they won't go quietly. A 3-2 scoreline fits the bill for a thrilling start to the season.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:49 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Munie
Yellow Card
Reynolds
Munie
Judd
Assist: Ricketts
Munie
Assist: Leroux
Vieira
Suleymanov
Jones
Judd
Ricketts
Leroux
Harris
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -18 | 31 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | -39 | 22 |
Match Statistics
San Jose Earthquakes
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2J. RickettsM
- 5D. MunieD
- 7O. BoudaM
- 10N. TsakirisM
- 14R. VieiraM
- 18R. RobertsD
- 19P. JuddF
- 24D. JonesD
- 28B. KikanovicD
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 42DanielG
Substitutes
- 3P. MarieD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 16J. SkahanM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 31Francesco MontaliG
- 32N. AdimabuaF
- 40J. GónzalezM
- 87Vítor CostaD
Sporting Kansas City
4-4-1-1Starting XI
- 1J. PulskampG
- 2I. JamesD
- 6Manu GarcíaM
- 8J. DavisF
- 9D. JoveljićF
- 11C. HarrisM
- 13J. ReynoldsD
- 16J. BartlettM
- 28Wyatt MeyerD
- 93M. SuleymanovM
- 99J. ReidD
Substitutes
- 14M. TschantretM
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 23E. BartlowD
- 30S. ClevelandG
- 61Z. Loyo ReynagaM
- 88S. DonovanM
San Jose Earthquakes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Munie | D | 90 | 8.6 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Beau Leroux | M | 83 | 7.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Preston Judd | F | 71 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| Jamar Ricketts | M | 83 | 7.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Daniel | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reid Roberts | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ronaldo Vieira(C) | M | 66 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Ousseni Bouda | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/4 |
| Benjamin Kikanović | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Niko Tsakiris | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 8 | 0/4 |
| DeJuan Jones | D | 71 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Nick Fernandez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dave Romney | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francesco Montali | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nonso Adimabua | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian Harkes | M | 24 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Marie | D | 12 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Costa | D | 19 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Gonzalez | M | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Jack Skahan | M | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
Sporting Kansas City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Meyer | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Manu García | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| Justin Reynolds | D | 38 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacob Bartlett | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John Pulskamp | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jayden Reid | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Calvin Harris | M | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Jacob Davis | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Magomed Shapi Suleymanov | M | 68 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Dejan Joveljić(C) | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Ian James | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Zamir Loyo Reynaga | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shane Donovan | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Taylor Calheira | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Macielo Tschantret | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ethan Bartlow | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefan Cleveland | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kwaku Agyabeng | M | 52 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Jansen Miller | D | 22 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted San Jose Earthquakes to win against Sporting Kansas City.
- What score did Fipster predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of San Jose Earthquakes 3–2 Sporting Kansas City.
- What were the win probabilities for San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Fipster's model gave San Jose Earthquakes a 95% chance of winning, Sporting Kansas City a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.