San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
Match recap
San Jose Earthquakes beat Real Salt Lake 2–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Bouda and Kikanovic scored for San Jose Earthquakes; Sanabria replied for Real Salt Lake. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.28 for San Jose Earthquakes versus 1.45 for Real Salt Lake. San Jose Earthquakes sit 3rd in the Major League Soccer table while Real Salt Lake are 11th.
Outcome probability
The San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake are gearing up for a competitive MLS regular season match that promises goals and drama. Both sides have shown attacking intent recently, setting the stage for an entertaining encounter.
Match factors
San Jose's attacking form strong at home
San Jose has scored in all last 5 home games, showing strong offensive momentum
Real Salt Lake's scoring streak on the road
Real Salt Lake has scored in 4 of last 5 away games, maintaining offensive threat
San Jose's attacking midfield depth
Players like Timo Werner and Niko Tsakiris provide creativity and goal threat from midfield
Real Salt Lake's defensive solidity challenged by San Jose's forwards
San Jose's Preston Judd and Jack Jasinski have been key goal contributors, pressuring Real Salt Lake defense
San Jose missing key attackers and defenders
Confirmed outs include key attacker N. Adimabua and defender D. Jones, weakening squad depth
The context
San Jose Earthquakes currently sit 4th in the league standings, boasting a better goal difference than Real Salt Lake, who are 8th. Historically, San Jose have a slight edge in their head-to-head record, having won 10 of their 20 meetings. Matches between these two sides tend to be lively affairs, averaging just over three goals per game.
Key insights
- P
Preston Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
Consistent goal scorer with multiple goals recently, key to San Jose's attacking threat at home.
Major League Soccer 26/27Multiple goals and assists in recent matches
- J
Jack Jasinski
San Jose Earthquakes
Scored recently against Real Salt Lake, providing offensive threat from defence with strong passing and tackling.
Major League Soccer 26/27High match ratings and recent goal contribution
- T
Timo Werner
San Jose Earthquakes
Creative attacking midfielder with multiple goals and assists, vital for San Jose's midfield depth.
Major League Soccer 26/27Multiple goals and assists in recent matches
- N
Niko Tsakiris
San Jose Earthquakes
Key playmaker with high assist numbers and consistent goal contributions, strengthening San Jose's midfield.
Major League Soccer 26/27High assist numbers and key passes
- M
Morgan Guilavogui
Real Salt Lake
Leading goal scorer for Real Salt Lake, involved heavily in their attacking plays and scoring recently.
Major League Soccer 26/27Multiple goals and high match ratings
Analysis
San Jose's attacking form at home is impressive, having scored in all of their last five home games. Key players like Preston Judd and Jack Jasinski have been instrumental in creating and converting chances, while midfielders Timo Werner and Niko Tsakiris add creativity and goal threat. Real Salt Lake have also been consistent on the road, scoring in four of their last five away matches, with Morgan Guilavogui and Sergi Solans leading their attacking efforts. However, San Jose's defensive solidity and home advantage are likely to tip the scales in their favour in what should be a closely contested match.
Key facts
- 1.San Jose Earthquakes have won 10 of 20 head-to-head matches against Real Salt Lake.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.1 total goals, indicating high-scoring encounters.
- 3.San Jose Earthquakes rank 4th in the league with 48 points from 31 games.
- 4.Real Salt Lake are 8th with 42 points from 32 games.
- 5.San Jose has a significantly better goal difference (+7) than Real Salt Lake this season.
- 6.San Jose have scored in all of their last 5 home games.
- 7.Real Salt Lake have scored in 4 of their last 5 away games.
Prediction
We expect a thrilling encounter with both teams finding the net early, reflected in a predicted 1-1 halftime score. Ultimately, San Jose Earthquakes are forecast to secure a narrow 3-2 victory, continuing their strong home form and edging out Real Salt Lake in a high-scoring affair.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — San Jose Earthquakes
Away — Real Salt Lake
The verdict
This match promises excitement for MLS fans, with attacking football from both sides. San Jose's home advantage and recent form make them the favourites to take all three points, but Real Salt Lake's resilience ensures it won't be an easy win. Expect goals, drama, and a tight finish.
Prediction generated 29 Oct 2026, 04:39 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bouda
Kikanovic
Assist: Ricketts
Sanabria
Assist: Junqua
Junqua
Marczuk
Kikanovic
Roberts
Yellow Card
Harkes
Tsakiris
Yellow Card
Tsakiris
Fernandez
Glad
Quinton
Yellow Card
Chadwick Zachary Booth
Spierings
Judd
Katránis
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | +40 | 64 |
| 2 |  FC Dallas | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | +9 | 55 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | +8 | 52 |
| 4 |  St. Louis City | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | +10 | 51 |
| 10 |  Seattle Sounders | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 42 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United FC | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | -4 | 41 |
Match Statistics
San Jose Earthquakes
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 2J. RickettsM
- 4D. RomneyD
- 5D. MunieD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 7O. BoudaF
- 10N. TsakirisM
- 18R. RobertsD
- 19P. JuddF
- 20N. FernandezM
- 28B. KikanovicM
- 36E. EdwardsG
Substitutes
- 1A. GunnG
- 9L. JovanovićF
- 14R. VieiraM
- 16J. SkahanM
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 23E. LöwenM
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 87Vítor CostaD
Real Salt Lake
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 6S. SpieringsM
- 8J. SanabriaM
- 11D. MarczukM
- 12S. LobzhanidzeM
- 15J. GladD
- 22S. SolansF
- 26P. QuintonD
- 29S. JunquaM
- 44L. De FougerollesD
- 92N. CaliskanM
Substitutes
- 2D. YedlinD
- 3K. HenryD
- 4L. EngelD
- 19A. PiolF
- 23Chadwick Zachary BoothM
- 25Colin GuskeM
- 31M. StajduharG
- 39A. HezarkhaniF
- 98A. KatránisD
San Jose Earthquakes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Bouda | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1/2 |
| B. Kikanovic | M | 46 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Ricketts | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| E. Löwen | M | 30 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| N. Fernandez | M | 60 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 4 | — |
| D. Romney | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Edwards | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Tsakiris | M | 60 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Roberts | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Beau Leroux | M | 30 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Jack Jasinski | D | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Harkes | M | 60 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| L. Jovanović | F | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Vieira | M | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Munie | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Judd | F | 81 | 5.9 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Floriani | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Skahan | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vítor Costa | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Gunn | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Real Salt Lake
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Sanabria | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 4 | — |
| Rafael Cabral | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Junqua | M | 46 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. De Fougerolles | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| S. Spierings | M | 71 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| N. Caliskan | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/4 |
| A. Piol | F | 19 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Hezarkhani | F | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Solans | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| P. Quinton | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Katránis | D | 20 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Marczuk | M | 46 | 6.1 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| S. Lobzhanidze | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Chadwick Zachary Booth | M | 24 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Glad | D | 60 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. Engel | D | 30 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Colin Guske | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Stajduhar | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Yedlin | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Henry | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?
- Fipster's AI model predicted San Jose Earthquakes to win against Real Salt Lake.
- What score did Fipster predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?
- Fipster predicted a final score of San Jose Earthquakes 3–2 Real Salt Lake.
- What were the win probabilities for San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?
- Fipster's model gave San Jose Earthquakes a 78% chance of winning, Real Salt Lake a 11% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 78% confidence — a high-confidence call.