San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers
Earthquakes storm past Timbers with Judd brace
San Jose's early firepower secures a comfortable 3-1 victory over Portland.
San Jose Earthquakes set the tone early with P. Judd opening the scoring in the 4th minute, followed by E. Löwen and another Judd strike before the half-hour mark, putting the game well beyond Portland Timbers' reach. Although David Pereira da Costa pulled one back late on, it was too little too late for the visitors. Fipster's medium-confidence prediction for a home win was spot on, even if the exact scoreline was a bit more emphatic than forecast.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its close, San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers face off in what promises to be a lively encounter. Both teams have shown glimpses of quality, but San Jose's recent home scoring streak and superior goal difference give them a slight edge.
Match factors
San Jose's attacking trio in strong form
Preston Judd leads with 12 goals and strong recent scoring; Bouda and Munie add goal threat from midfield and defense
Portland's key attackers face solid San Jose defense
Kevin Kelsy and Kristoffer Velde are main threats but face disciplined defenders Romney and Roberts
San Jose's creative midfield leads assists
Niko Tsakiris has 7 assists, well above league average, boosting San Jose's scoring chances
Portland missing key playmaker David Pereira da Costa
David Pereira da Costa is confirmed out, reducing Portland's creative options and assist potential
San Jose's positive scoring streak at home
San Jose has scored in last 5 home games, showing strong offensive momentum
The context
This fixture is part of the 2026 regular season, round 27. San Jose Earthquakes currently sit 5th in the league standings with 42 points from 26 games, while Portland Timbers are 9th with 32 points from 25 games. Historically, Portland have the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, winning 10 of 20 matches against San Jose's 5, with 5 draws. The average goals per match in these encounters is a healthy 3.0, suggesting an open game.
Key insights
Preston Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
Top scorer with 12 goals and strong recent form, leading San Jose's attacking threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2712 goals in 20 appearances, 0.6 avg per game
N. Tsakiris
San Jose Earthquakes
Leads team with 7 assists, providing excellent creative support and recent form.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 16 appearances, 0.44 avg per game
Daniel Munie
San Jose Earthquakes
Unusually high scoring defender with 4 goals, a threat on set pieces especially at home.
Major League Soccer 26/274 goals in 22 appearances, 0.18 avg per game
- K
Kevin Kelsy Genez
Portland Timbers
Leading scorer for Portland with 9 goals, key attacking threat despite strong San Jose defence.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals in 19 appearances, 0.47 avg per game
Analysis
San Jose's attacking trio is in fine fettle, led by Preston Judd who boasts 12 goals this season and consistent starting appearances. Midfielder Ousseni Bouda and defender Daniel Munie add valuable goal threats, with Munie's set-piece prowess particularly notable. Portland's main offensive threats, Kevin Kelsy and Kristoffer Velde, face a disciplined San Jose defence marshalled by Dave Romney and Reid Roberts. The absence of Portland's creative playmaker David Pereira da Costa is a blow to their attacking fluidity. San Jose's creative midfield, spearheaded by Niko Tsakiris with 7 assists, is likely to unlock chances and maintain pressure.
Key facts
- 1.San Jose Earthquakes rank 5th with 42 points from 26 games (W12 D6 L8).
- 2.Portland Timbers are 9th with 32 points from 25 games (W9 D5 L11).
- 3.Portland lead head-to-head with 10 wins to San Jose's 5 in 20 matches.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 3.0 goals, indicating a moderately high scoring fixture.
- 5.San Jose has a significantly better goal difference (+8) than Portland this season.
- 6.San Jose has scored in their last 5 home games, showing strong offensive momentum.
- 7.David Pereira da Costa is out for Portland, reducing their creative options.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a home win for San Jose Earthquakes with a 2-1 scoreline. The home side's better goal difference and recent scoring momentum at home underpin this call. While Portland will pose challenges, especially through Kelsy and Velde, San Jose's balanced attack and solid defence should see them through in a closely contested match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — San Jose Earthquakes
Away — Portland Timbers
The verdict
Expect a competitive match with both sides eager to secure valuable points. San Jose's attacking form and home advantage should just tip the scales in their favour, resulting in a 2-1 victory. Fans can look forward to an entertaining game with goals and tactical battles aplenty.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 04:38 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Judd
Assist: Löwen
Löwen
Assist: Leroux
Judd
Assist: Marie
Judd
Yellow Card
Roberts
Yellow Card
Marie
Werner
Lassiter
Bassett
Fory
Costa
Miller
Yellow Card
Judd
Janssen
Pereira da Costa
Assist: Izoita
Leroux
Miller
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | +33 | 50 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | +8 | 47 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | +10 | 45 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | +2 | 44 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 35 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | -3 | 32 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | -4 | 32 |
Match Statistics
San Jose Earthquakes
5-3-2Starting XI
- 3P. MarieD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 5D. MunieD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 11T. WernerF
- 18R. RobertsD
- 19P. JuddF
- 23E. LöwenM
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 87Vítor CostaD
Substitutes
- 2J. RickettsD
- 9L. JovanovićF
- 16J. SkahanM
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 20N. FernandezM
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 28B. KikanovicF
- 31Francesco MontaliG
- 40J. GónzalezM
Portland Timbers
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4K. MillerD
- 7A. LassiterM
- 10David Pereira da CostaM
- 12R. HernándezD
- 14V. JanssenF
- 15E. MillerD
- 17C. BassettM
- 21D. CharáM
- 27J. ForyD
- 41J. PantemisG
- 99K. VeldeM
Substitutes
- 6A. BonetigD
- 11AntonyF
- 16S. JuraD
- 23Ian SmithD
- 26H. SulteG
- 28A. AravenaF
- 73Eric IzoitaM
- 80J. OrtizM
- 88Andrew GuerraF
San Jose Earthquakes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Judd | F | 76 | 9.3 | 2 | — | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2/2 |
| E. Löwen | M | 90 | 8.6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0/3 |
| P. Marie | D | 46 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| E. Edwards | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Munie | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Vítor Costa | D | 76 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Beau Leroux | M | 87 | 7.1 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| D. Romney | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| I. Harkes | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| B. Kikanovic | F | 44 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| J. Ricketts | D | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Jovanović | F | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. Werner | F | 67 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| N. Fernandez | M | 23 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Skahan | M | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Roberts | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Floriani | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Gónzalez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jack Jasinski | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francesco Montali | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Portland Timbers
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pereira da Costa | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2/3 |
| J. Pantemis | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antony | F | 23 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| Andrew Guerra | F | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Chará | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Bassett | M | 67 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| A. Lassiter | M | 67 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4/5 |
| J. Fory | D | 67 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| V. Janssen | F | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| A. Aravena | F | 2 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Hernández | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Miller | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eric Izoita | M | 23 | 6.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| E. Miller | D | 88 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| K. Velde | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 5 | — | 2 | 2/5 |
| Ian Smith | D | 23 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Bonetig | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Jura | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Sulte | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Ortiz | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?
- Fipster's AI model predicted San Jose Earthquakes to win against Portland Timbers.
- What score did Fipster predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?
- Fipster predicted a final score of San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Portland Timbers.
- What were the win probabilities for San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?
- Fipster's model gave San Jose Earthquakes a 63% chance of winning, Portland Timbers a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 63% confidence — a medium-confidence call.