San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
Earthquakes hold Nashville to a draw
San Jose's Judd rescues a point after Mukhtar's opener.
Nashville SC took the lead through H. Mukhtar's first-half strike, but San Jose Earthquakes fought back after the break with P. Judd leveling the score. The 1-1 draw defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a Nashville win, proving the home side's resilience in Major League Soccer.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its climax, San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC prepare for a high-stakes clash. Both teams boast potent attacks, promising an entertaining contest with goals aplenty.
Match factors
San Jose's Preston Judd vs Nashville's Defense
Judd's prolific scoring and strong home form pose a key threat to Nashville's backline.
Nashville's Surridge Leading Attack
Surridge's high scoring rate and physicality create a tactical mismatch for San Jose defenders.
Nashville's Superior Recent Form and Defense
Nashville has a higher win percentage and better defensive record, supporting predicted away win.
Beau Leroux's Assist Surge
Leroux's recent 3 assists in last 5 games indicate rising creative influence for San Jose.
San Jose Missing Key Midfielders
San Jose's confirmed absences in midfield reduce creative options, impacting attacking fluidity.
The context
San Jose Earthquakes sit fourth in the league with 46 points from 28 games, showcasing a solid campaign. Nashville SC, meanwhile, have demonstrated strong recent form and defensive resilience, making them formidable opponents despite being the visitors.
Key insights
Preston Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
Judd's prolific scoring and strong home form pose a key threat to Nashville's backline.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 23 appearances, 3 goals in last 3 home matches
Samuel Surridge
Nashville SC
Surridge's high scoring rate and physicality create a tactical mismatch for San Jose defenders.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 20 appearances, 4 goals in last 5 matches
Beau Leroux
San Jose Earthquakes
Leroux's recent 3 assists in last 5 games indicate rising creative influence for San Jose.
Major League Soccer 26/276 assists in 25 appearances, 3 assists in last 5 matches
Nikolas Tsakiris
San Jose Earthquakes
Tsakiris is the creative hub with 7 assists in 17 games, vital for linking midfield to attack.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 17 appearances, 0.41 assists/game
Analysis
Nashville SC's attacking spearhead Samuel Surridge leads with 15 goals in 20 appearances, bringing pace and physicality that could unsettle San Jose's defence. San Jose's Preston Judd matches that tally with 15 goals in 23 games and has been particularly effective at home, scoring in his last three matches. Midfield creativity will be crucial, with Nashville's Cristian Espinoza and San Jose's Nikolas Tsakiris both key playmakers. However, San Jose's midfield absences may hamper their attacking fluidity, giving Nashville a slight edge. The predicted halftime score of 2-1 in favour of Nashville aligns with their recent ability to strike early and maintain pressure.
Key facts
- 1.San Jose Earthquakes are 4th in the league with 46 points from 28 games.
- 2.Nashville SC's Samuel Surridge has scored 15 goals in 20 appearances this season.
- 3.Preston Judd leads San Jose with 15 goals in 23 games, scoring in last 3 home matches.
- 4.Nikolas Tsakiris tops San Jose's assists with 7 in 17 games, key creative midfielder.
- 5.Cristian Espinoza leads Nashville with 9 assists in 22 games, vital in attack.
- 6.San Jose faces midfield absences impacting creativity and attacking flow.
- 7.Predicted halftime score is 2-1 to Nashville, consistent with fulltime 3-2.
- 8.Four cards expected, indicating a competitive and physical match.
Prediction
Expect a closely fought match with Nashville SC narrowly prevailing 3-2. The away side's superior recent form and defensive solidity should see them edge out San Jose, despite the latter's home scoring threat. Four cards are anticipated, reflecting a competitive and intense encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — San Jose Earthquakes
Away — Nashville SC
The verdict
This fixture promises end-to-end action with both teams eager to secure vital points. While San Jose's attacking talents shine, Nashville's balanced squad and recent momentum make them the likely winners in a thrilling 3-2 finish.
Prediction generated 15 Oct 2026, 03:34 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Mohammed
Yellow Card
Mukhtar
Leroux
Yellow Card
Judd
Yellow Card
Mohammed
Werner
Judd
Assist: Löwen
Yazbek
Lovitz
Judd
Ricketts
Espinoza
Jasinski
Vieira
Harkes
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
Match Statistics
San Jose Earthquakes
5-3-2Starting XI
- 1A. GunnG
- 2J. RickettsD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 5D. MunieD
- 11T. WernerF
- 14R. VieiraM
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 18R. RobertsD
- 19P. JuddF
- 23E. LöwenM
- 34Beau LerouxM
Substitutes
- 3P. MarieD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 7O. BoudaF
- 9L. JovanovićF
- 20N. FernandezM
- 21N. BuckM
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 87Vítor CostaD
Nashville SC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2D. LovitzD
- 3M. WoledziD
- 4J. PalaciosD
- 7C. EspinozaM
- 8P. YazbekM
- 9S. SurridgeF
- 10H. MukhtarM
- 14S. MohammedM
- 16M. CorcoranM
- 31A. NajarD
- 99B. SchwakeG
Substitutes
- 1J. WillisG
- 5J. MaherD
- 6B. AcostaM
- 11E. SaadF
- 19A. MuylM
- 20E. TagsethM
- 22J. BauerD
- 27R. Baker-WhitingD
- 41W. MadrigalF
San Jose Earthquakes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Judd | F | 76 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | — |
| J. Ricketts | D | 76 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| P. Marie | D | 14 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Vieira | M | 86 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| A. Gunn | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Bouda | F | 23 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| D. Munie | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Löwen | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Jack Jasinski | D | 86 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| T. Werner | F | 67 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Roberts | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beau Leroux | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 4 | — | 1 | 4/5 |
| N. Fernandez | M | 14 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Romney | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| I. Harkes | M | 4 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Floriani | D | 4 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Jovanović | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Buck | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Edwards | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vítor Costa | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nashville SC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Mukhtar | M | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/3 |
| D. Lovitz | D | 72 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Woledzi | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Saad | F | 44 | 7.1 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| J. Palacios | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Najar | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/5 |
| E. Tagseth | M | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Corcoran | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| P. Yazbek | M | 72 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| R. Baker-Whiting | D | 18 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| W. Madrigal | F | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Espinoza | M | 79 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| S. Surridge | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Mohammed | M | 46 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Schwake | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Muyl | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Maher | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bauer | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Willis | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Acosta | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Nashville SC to win against San Jose Earthquakes.
- What score did Fipster predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of San Jose Earthquakes 2–3 Nashville SC.
- What were the win probabilities for San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC?
- Fipster's model gave San Jose Earthquakes a 20% chance of winning, Nashville SC a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 59% confidence — a medium-confidence call.