San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids
Earthquakes and Rapids share spoils in MLS stalemate
A spirited 2-2 draw sees both sides trading blows with Roberts and Jasinski netting for San Jose.
San Jose Earthquakes and Colorado Rapids fought out a lively 2-2 draw in Major League Soccer, with early goals from R. Roberts and M. Whittaker setting the tone. Colorado looked to have the edge after D. Yapi's strike, but Jack Jasinski's late effort ensured San Jose salvaged a point. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 3-1 home win, proving the Rapids more resilient than expected.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its conclusion, San Jose Earthquakes and Colorado Rapids face off in what promises to be an engaging encounter. Both teams have had their moments this season, but the Earthquakes hold a clear edge in the standings and goal difference.
Match factors
San Jose missing top scorer Preston Judd
Judd is out due to suspension, removing their leading goal threat with 16 goals this season
Colorado's Rafael Navarro leads Rapids attack
Navarro's 9 goals and consistent starts give Rapids a focal point to challenge San Jose's defense
San Jose's midfield creativity from Beau Leroux and Niko Tsakiris
Leroux and Tsakiris combine for 13 assists this season, key to creating scoring chances
San Jose strong home scoring streak but defensive vulnerability
Scored in last 5 home games but conceded in 3 of last 5, indicating attacking strength but defensive risk
Colorado's defensive solidity with key players like Rob Holding
Holding's high rating and passing help stabilize Rapids defense against San Jose's attack
The context
This match is part of the 32nd round of the regular season. San Jose Earthquakes currently sit 4th in the league with 48 points, while Colorado Rapids are 9th with 39 points. The Rapids have a slight historical advantage in head-to-head wins, but recent form and league position favour San Jose.
Key insights
Ousseni Bouda
San Jose Earthquakes
Bouda is a key offensive contributor with 6 goals this season, providing a consistent threat in midfield.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals in 26 appearances, 0.23 avg per game
Beau Leroux
San Jose Earthquakes
Leroux's creativity is vital, with 6 assists this season and strong recent form helping to unlock defences.
Major League Soccer 26/276 assists in 27 appearances, 0.22 avg per game
Niko Tsakiris
San Jose Earthquakes
Tsakiris adds to San Jose's creativity with 7 assists, though his doubtful status may affect team dynamics.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 17 appearances, 0.41 avg per game
Rafael Navarro
Colorado Rapids
Navarro leads Colorado's attack with 9 goals, consistently starting and posing a significant threat.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals in 20 appearances, 0.45 avg per game
Analysis
San Jose's midfield creativity, particularly from Beau Leroux and Niko Tsakiris, who combine for 13 assists this season, will be key in breaking down Colorado's defence. Despite missing their top scorer Preston Judd due to suspension, the Earthquakes have other attacking options like Ousseni Bouda, who has netted 6 goals this season. Colorado's main threat comes from Rafael Navarro, their top scorer with 9 goals, but San Jose's better goal difference and home scoring streak suggest they will control the game. Colorado's defensive solidity, anchored by Rob Holding, will be tested by San Jose's attacking prowess.
Key facts
- 1.San Jose Earthquakes are 4th in the league with 48 points from 30 games (W13 D9 L8).
- 2.Colorado Rapids are 9th with 39 points from 30 games (W11 D6 L13).
- 3.San Jose has a +10 goal difference compared to Colorado's 0.
- 4.Colorado leads head-to-head wins 9 to 6, with 5 draws.
- 5.San Jose has scored in their last 5 home games but conceded in 3 of those.
- 6.Preston Judd, San Jose's top scorer with 16 goals, is suspended for this match.
- 7.Beau Leroux and Niko Tsakiris have combined for 13 assists this season for San Jose.
- 8.Rafael Navarro is Colorado's top scorer with 9 goals this season.
Prediction
We expect San Jose Earthquakes to take an early lead and maintain control throughout, leading 1-0 at halftime and finishing with a 3-1 victory. The Earthquakes' superior league position and goal difference, combined with their creative midfield and home scoring form, should see them comfortably outscore the Rapids.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — San Jose Earthquakes
Away — Colorado Rapids
The verdict
San Jose Earthquakes look set to continue their strong season with a confident win over Colorado Rapids. While the Rapids have their moments, the Earthquakes' attacking depth and midfield creativity should prove decisive in this clash.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 03:36 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Roberts
Assist: Werner
Atencio
Yellow Card
Whittaker
Assist: Frederick II
Atencio
Phillip
Yellow Card
Phillip
Williams
Yellow Card
Whittaker
Minoungou
Yellow Card
Werner
Red Card
Yapi
Assist: Minoungou
Thompson
Red Card
Minoungou
Vieira
Löwen
Costa
Judd
Yellow Card
Jasinski
Assist: Tsakiris
Leroux
Abu
Yellow Card
Bouda
Yellow Card
Judd
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | +40 | 64 |
| 2 |  FC Dallas | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | +9 | 55 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | +8 | 52 |
| 4 |  St. Louis City | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | +10 | 51 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | -1 | 43 |
| 9 |  Colorado Rapids | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | -1 | 43 |
| 10 |  Seattle Sounders | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 43 |
Match Statistics
San Jose Earthquakes
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1A. GunnG
- 5D. MunieD
- 7O. BoudaM
- 11T. WernerM
- 14R. VieiraM
- 17Jack JasinskiM
- 18R. RobertsD
- 19P. JuddF
- 23E. LöwenM
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 87Vítor CostaD
Substitutes
- 2J. RickettsD
- 3P. MarieD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 9L. JovanovićF
- 10N. TsakirisM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 36E. EdwardsG
Colorado Rapids
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5Loïc WilliamsD
- 6R. HoldingD
- 7M. WhittakerM
- 10P. AaronsonM
- 12J. AtencioM
- 13W. Frederick IIM
- 29M. NavarroD
- 32D. PhillipF
- 33K. ThompsonD
- 41N. DefreitasG
- 93G. MinoungouM
Substitutes
- 2K. RosenberryD
- 8H. OjediranM
- 9S. AbuF
- 16A. HarrisF
- 21T. Ku-DiPietroM
- 24N. CobbD
- 31A. BeaudryG
- 77D. YapiF
- 99J. TravisD
San Jose Earthquakes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Roberts | D | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Jack Jasinski | M | 90 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| N. Tsakiris | M | 11 | 6.8 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| D. Munie | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Löwen | M | 79 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| O. Bouda | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 1/1 |
| Vítor Costa | D | 79 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Beau Leroux | M | 88 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| P. Judd | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Ricketts | D | 11 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Gunn | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Werner | M | 71 | 6.1 | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | — |
| N. Fernandez | M | 2 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Vieira | M | 79 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Harkes | M | 11 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Romney | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Floriani | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Jovanović | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Edwards | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Marie | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Colorado Rapids
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Whittaker | M | 63 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| N. Defreitas | G | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Yapi | F | 27 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| W. Frederick II | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 1/6 |
| G. Minoungou | M | 79 | 6.5 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/4 |
| S. Abu | F | 36 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| H. Ojediran | M | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Phillip | F | 54 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Atencio | M | 46 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Navarro | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Loïc Williams | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| P. Aaronson | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| N. Cobb | D | 11 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Holding | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| K. Thompson | D | 75 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Beaudry | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Harris | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Rosenberry | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Ku-DiPietro | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Travis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids?
- Fipster's AI model predicted San Jose Earthquakes to win against Colorado Rapids.
- What score did Fipster predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids?
- Fipster predicted a final score of San Jose Earthquakes 3–1 Colorado Rapids.
- What were the win probabilities for San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids?
- Fipster's model gave San Jose Earthquakes a 95% chance of winning, Colorado Rapids a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.