San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin
Match recap
San Jose Earthquakes beat Austin 5–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Jasinski, Werner, Judd, Bouda, and Judd scored for San Jose Earthquakes; Rosales replied for Austin. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 5.36 for San Jose Earthquakes versus 0.83 for Austin. San Jose Earthquakes sit 4th in the Major League Soccer table while Austin are 14th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-2 Austin win
Actual
5–1
Outcome probability
San Jose Earthquakes and Austin face off in what promises to be a competitive MLS regular season encounter. Both teams have shown moments of attacking flair, but Austin's recent form and key players could tip the scales in their favour.
Match factors
San Jose's attacking trio in strong form
Preston Judd leads with 15 goals and strong recent scoring, supported by Leroux and Werner's creativity and goal threat.
Austin relies heavily on Christian Ramirez
Ramirez has 9 goals with excellent recent form, key to Austin's predicted 2 goals and away win chance.
Nikolas Tsakiris' creative influence
Tsakiris leads assists for San Jose with 7 in 19 games, crucial for goal creation and linking play.
Beau Leroux's recent assist surge
Leroux has 4 assists in last 5 games, showing peak form to influence match outcome.
Austin missing key defender Žan Kolmanič
Kolmanič is confirmed out, weakening Austin's defense and possibly increasing San Jose's scoring chances.
The context
This match is part of the MLS regular season, round 9. San Jose currently sit 4th in the league with 46 points, while Austin are 13th with 31 points. Historically, their head-to-head meetings have been tight, with San Jose holding a slight edge in wins but many draws, and an average of nearly 4 goals per game indicating open, attacking contests.
Key insights
Preston Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
League top scorer with 15 goals and strong recent form, making him a key threat in attack.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 26 appearances, 0.58 goals/game
Christian Ramirez
Austin
Leading scorer for Austin with 9 goals and excellent recent form, crucial for Austin's goal threat.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals in 24 appearances, 0.38 goals/game
Nikolas Tsakiris
San Jose Earthquakes
Top assister with 7 assists in 19 games, vital for creating scoring opportunities.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 19 appearances, 0.37 assists/game
Beau Leroux
San Jose Earthquakes
In excellent form with 4 assists in last 5 games, boosting San Jose's creative play.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 27 appearances, 0.26 assists/game
- Ž
Ž. Kolmanič
Austin
His absence weakens Austin's defence, potentially increasing San Jose's scoring chances.
Major League Soccer 26/276 yellow cards and 1 red card this season
Analysis
San Jose boasts a potent attacking trio led by Preston Judd, the league's top scorer with 15 goals this season, supported by creative midfielders Nikolas Tsakiris and Beau Leroux. However, Austin's Christian Ramirez, with 9 goals and strong recent form, remains a significant threat. Austin's defensive line is weakened by the absence of key defender Žan Kolmanič, which could be exploited by San Jose's attackers. Despite this, Austin's ability to convert chances and their tactical setup suggest they can edge this encounter.
Key facts
- 1.San Jose Earthquakes rank 4th in the league with 46 points from 28 games.
- 2.Austin sit 13th with 31 points from 28 games, showing a gap in league form.
- 3.In 13 head-to-head meetings, San Jose have 4 wins, Austin 2, and 7 draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 3.9 goals, indicating high scoring potential.
- 5.Preston Judd is the league top scorer with 15 goals this season.
- 6.Christian Ramirez leads Austin with 9 goals and strong recent form.
- 7.Austin's defender Žan Kolmanič is out, weakening their defence.
- 8.Nikolas Tsakiris leads San Jose with 7 assists in 19 games.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards an away win for Austin with a 2-1 scoreline. While San Jose's form and attacking prowess are impressive, Austin's key players and tactical resilience are expected to secure the victory in a closely fought match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — San Jose Earthquakes
Away — Austin
The verdict
Expect a lively contest with goals from both sides, but ultimately Austin's clinical edge and ability to capitalise on opportunities should see them take the three points. San Jose will be disappointed but can take positives from their attacking display.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:52 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Edwards
Yellow Card
Rosales
Biro
Roberts
Yellow Card
Jasinski
Assist: Tsakiris
Fodrey
Alastuey
Jasinski
Yellow Card
Rosales
Yellow Card
Jasinski
Werner
Penalty
Leroux
Judd
Assist: Marie
Bouda
Assist: Marie
Dubersarsky
Rosales
Judd
Assist: Marie
Ricketts
Vieira
Werner
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -18 | 31 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | -39 | 22 |
Match Statistics
San Jose Earthquakes
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2J. RickettsD
- 5D. MunieD
- 7O. BoudaM
- 10N. TsakirisM
- 11T. WernerM
- 14R. VieiraM
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 18R. RobertsD
- 19P. JuddF
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 42DanielG
Substitutes
- 3P. MarieD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 16J. SkahanM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 21N. BuckM
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 40J. GónzalezM
Austin
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1B. StuverG
- 4B. Hines-IkeD
- 11F. TorresF
- 14B. ŠabovićM
- 15J. BellD
- 17J. GallagherD
- 19C. FodreyF
- 20N. DubersarskyM
- 24Jorge AlastueyM
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 30J. RosalesM
Substitutes
- 3M. DeslerD
- 5O. SvatokD
- 6Ilie SánchezM
- 12D. LasG
- 21C. RamirezF
- 23Ž. KolmaničD
- 32M. BurtonM
- 35M. ĐorđevićD
- 38Ervin TorresM
San Jose Earthquakes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Werner | M | 89 | 9.2 | 1 | — | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2/4 |
| Preston Judd | F | 90 | 8.6 | 2 | — | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Ousseni Bouda | M | 90 | 8.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0/1 |
| Jamar Ricketts | D | 89 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 2/2 |
| Niko Tsakiris | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 3 | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| Beau Leroux | M | 82 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Reid Roberts | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Daniel | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jack Jasinski | D | 74 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Daniel Munie | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ronaldo Vieira(C) | M | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jack Skahan | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Floriani | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noel Buck | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earl Edwards Jr. | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Marie | D | 16 | 8.7 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 4 | — |
| Jonathan Gonzalez | M | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dave Romney | D | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nick Fernandez | M | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ian Harkes | M | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
Austin
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Facundo Torres | F | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Joseph Rosales | M | 87 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| Brad Stuver(C) | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolas Dubersarsky | M | 87 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Calvin Fodrey | F | 66 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge Alastuey | M | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Guilherme Biro | D | 38 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Besard Sabović | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brendan Hines-Ike | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jon Gallagher | D | 90 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jonathan Bell | D | 90 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Damian Las | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oleksandr Svatok | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateja Đorđević | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ilie Sanchez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Micah Burton | M | 18 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ervin Torres | M | 18 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Christian Ramirez | F | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Mikkel Desler | D | 24 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Žan Kolmanič | D | 52 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Austin to win against San Jose Earthquakes.
- What score did Fipster predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin?
- Fipster predicted a final score of San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 Austin.
- What were the win probabilities for San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin?
- Fipster's model gave San Jose Earthquakes a 32% chance of winning, Austin a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.