San Jose Earthquakes vs Atlanta United FC
Match recap
San Jose Earthquakes beat Atlanta United FC 2–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Judd and Bouda scored for San Jose Earthquakes. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.83 for San Jose Earthquakes versus 0.83 for Atlanta United FC.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 San Jose Earthquakes win
Actual
2–0
Outcome probability
The MLS regular season continues with San Jose Earthquakes facing off against Atlanta United FC. Both teams will be looking to assert themselves early in the campaign, with San Jose aiming to build on their solid league position and Atlanta seeking to make an impact on the road.
Match factors
San Jose's attacking midfield creativity vs Atlanta's defense
San Jose's Tsakiris and Leroux provide high assist potential, exploiting Atlanta's defensive vulnerabilities
Preston Judd's prolific scoring form
Judd leads with 15 goals this season and 4 in last 5 games, key to San Jose's predicted 2 goals
Beau Leroux's recent assist surge
Leroux has 4 assists in last 5 games, indicating strong creative form to support scoring
San Jose's defensive absences may affect solidity
Confirmed outs Jones and Roberts weaken defense, increasing reliance on Munie and Roberts
Atlanta's Miranchuk and Almirón key to breaking down San Jose
Miranchuk's 6 goals and Almirón's creativity vital for Atlanta's attack despite overall weaker form
The context
This match is part of the second round of the MLS regular season. San Jose Earthquakes currently sit fourth in their league standings, showing a competitive edge with 46 points from 28 games last season. Atlanta United FC, meanwhile, will be eager to improve their away form and challenge San Jose's home strength.
Key insights
Preston Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
Judd's prolific scoring form with 15 goals this season and 4 in the last 5 games makes him the key to San Jose's predicted goals.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 25 apps, 0.6 avg per game
N. Tsakiris
San Jose Earthquakes
Tsakiris leads with 7 assists, providing creative midfield play and recent strong form to support San Jose's attack.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 19 apps, 0.37 avg per game
Beau Leroux
San Jose Earthquakes
Leroux's recent surge with 4 assists in last 5 games boosts San Jose's creative options in midfield.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 26 apps, 0.27 avg per game
Aleksey Miranchuk
Atlanta United FC
Miranchuk's 6 goals and 6 assists make him Atlanta's key attacking threat, vital for breaking down San Jose's defence.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals and 6 assists in 25 apps, 0.24 avg per game
Analysis
San Jose's attacking midfield duo, N. Tsakiris and Beau Leroux, have been instrumental this season, combining for 14 assists and providing creative spark. Preston Judd leads the scoring charts with 15 goals, including a strong recent run of four goals in five games, making him a key threat. Atlanta's Aleksey Miranchuk and Miguel Almirón Rejala offer attacking quality, but San Jose's home advantage and offensive creativity could tip the scales. Defensive absences for San Jose may pose some risk, but their offensive firepower is expected to prevail.
Key facts
- 1.San Jose Earthquakes currently rank 4th in their league with 46 points from 28 games.
- 2.Preston Judd is San Jose's top scorer with 15 goals this season, including 4 in the last 5 games.
- 3.N. Tsakiris and Beau Leroux have combined for 14 assists this season, driving San Jose's attack.
- 4.Atlanta United's Aleksey Miranchuk has 6 goals and 6 assists this season, leading their midfield threat.
- 5.San Jose won the fixture 2-0, scoring once in each half.
- 6.The predicted halftime score is 1-1, consistent with a close match.
- 7.Four total cards are expected in the match, indicating a competitive encounter.
Prediction
We predict a closely contested match with San Jose Earthquakes edging out Atlanta United FC 2-1. The halftime scoreline is expected to be 1-1, reflecting a tight first half before San Jose pulls ahead in the second. The match should feature a handful of cards, with four predicted in total, as both sides battle hard.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — San Jose Earthquakes
Away — Atlanta United FC
The verdict
In summary, expect an entertaining MLS fixture with San Jose leveraging their attacking midfield creativity and goal-scoring prowess to secure a narrow victory. Atlanta will provide stern resistance, but the home side's edge should see them through to all three points.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:01 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Latte Lath
Yellow Card
Judd
Assist: Ricketts
Sanchez
Yellow Card
Hernández
Yellow Card
Lobzhanidze
Judd
Hernández
Sanchez
Leroux
Ricketts
Bouda
Assist: Werner
Tsakiris
Bouda
Jones
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
Match Statistics
San Jose Earthquakes
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2J. RickettsM
- 5D. MunieD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 7O. BoudaM
- 10N. TsakirisM
- 18R. RobertsD
- 19P. JuddF
- 24D. JonesD
- 28B. KikanovicD
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 42DanielG
Substitutes
- 3P. MarieD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 11T. WernerF
- 16J. SkahanM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 21N. BuckM
- 31Francesco MontaliG
- 40J. GónzalezM
- 87Vítor CostaD
Atlanta United FC
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1L. HoyosG
- 2R. HernándezD
- 3E. BáezD
- 4E. MihajD
- 6Juan BerrocalD
- 7S. AlzateM
- 9E. Latte LathF
- 10M. AlmirónF
- 11S. LobzhanidzeF
- 48C. SanchezM
- 55T. JacobM
Substitutes
- 5S. GregersenD
- 8T. MuyumbaM
- 16Adrian GillM
- 18Pedro AmadorD
- 20L. BrennanM
- 30C. TogashiF
- 42Jayden HibbertG
- 47Matthew EdwardsD
- 59A. MiranchukM
San Jose Earthquakes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamar Ricketts | M | 77 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Ian Harkes | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| Preston Judd | F | 61 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Daniel Munie | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DeJuan Jones(C) | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Daniel | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reid Roberts | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Benjamin Kikanović | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Niko Tsakiris | M | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Beau Leroux | M | 77 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Ousseni Bouda | M | 89 | 6.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/4 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Noel Buck | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nick Fernandez | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Costa | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dave Romney | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Marie | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francesco Montali | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Timo Werner | F | 29 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jack Skahan | M | 13 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jonathan Gonzalez | M | 13 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atlanta United FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Almirón(C) | F | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Tomás Jacob | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Lucas Hoyos | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Berrocal | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Emmanuel Latte Lath | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Enea Mihaj | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Steven Alzate | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Cooper Sanchez | M | 70 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Saba Lobjanidze | F | 60 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ronald Hernández | D | 60 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Elías Báez | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jayden Hibbert | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrian Gill | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luke Brennan | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matthew Edwards | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stian Gregersen | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cayman Togashi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tristan Muyumba | M | 30 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Amador | D | 20 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Aleksei Miranchuk | M | 30 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win San Jose Earthquakes vs Atlanta United FC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted San Jose Earthquakes to win against Atlanta United FC.
- What score did Fipster predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs Atlanta United FC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Atlanta United FC.
- What were the win probabilities for San Jose Earthquakes vs Atlanta United FC?
- Fipster's model gave San Jose Earthquakes a 37% chance of winning, Atlanta United FC a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 37% confidence — a low-confidence call.