San Diego vs St. Louis City
Match recap
San Diego beat St. Louis City 2–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Dreyer and Ingvartsen scored for San Diego. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.86 for San Diego versus 0.41 for St. Louis City. San Diego sit 12th in the Major League Soccer table while St. Louis City are 2nd.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-3 St. Louis City win
Actual
2–0
Outcome probability
The upcoming MLS regular season fixture between San Diego and St. Louis City promises an exciting contest, with both teams boasting notable attacking talents. Fans can expect a high-scoring affair given the offensive capabilities on display.
Match factors
San Diego's attacking duo synergy
Ingvartsen and Dreyer combine high goal and assist tallies, boosting San Diego's scoring potential
St. Louis City's consistent scoring threat
Becher and Hartel provide steady goal threat with recent scoring form, supporting predicted away win
San Diego's home scoring average advantage
San Diego averages 2.29 goals at home, higher than St. Louis City's 1.43 away goals
St. Louis City's positive scoring streak
St. Louis City has scored in last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum
St. Louis City's defensive absences
Two confirmed outs in defense and midfield may weaken St. Louis City's defensive solidity
The context
San Diego currently sit 12th in the league with 32 points from 28 games, while St. Louis City hold a strong 2nd place with 47 points from 27 matches. Historically, San Diego have had the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, winning two of three encounters, but St. Louis City's recent form and goal difference suggest a shift in momentum.
Key insights
Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen
San Diego
Top scorer for San Diego with 12 goals, combining well with Dreyer to boost scoring potential.
Major League Soccer 26/2712 goals in 23 apps, 0.52 goals/game
Anders Laustrup Dreyer
San Diego
Leading assister and second top scorer, key to San Diego's attacking threat with 11 goals and 11 assists.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals and 11 assists in 26 apps, 0.42 goals and assists/game
Simon Becher
St. Louis City
Consistent scorer with 6 goals, strong recent form with 3 goals in last 5 games, vital for St. Louis City's attack.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals in 25 apps, 0.24 goals/game
Marcel Hartel
St. Louis City
Important attacker with 6 goals and 3 assists, contributing creatively and scoring crucial goals.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals and 3 assists in 16 apps, 0.38 goals/game
Analysis
St. Louis City have been in fine scoring form, netting in their last five matches and maintaining a points-per-game advantage over San Diego. Their attackers Simon Becher and Marcel Hartel have been consistent threats, complementing their solid midfield and defensive setup. San Diego's Anders Dreyer remains a key offensive figure, but defensive absences for St. Louis City could be a factor. Despite San Diego's higher home scoring average, the visitors' attacking momentum and overall league standing give them the edge.
Key facts
- 1.San Diego are 12th in the league with 32 points from 28 games (W8 D8 L12).
- 2.St. Louis City are 2nd in the league with 47 points from 27 games (W13 D8 L6).
- 3.St. Louis City have a superior goal difference of +15 compared to San Diego.
- 4.San Diego average 2.29 goals per home game, higher than St. Louis City's 1.43 away goals.
- 5.St. Louis City have scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive form.
- 6.In 3 head-to-head meetings, San Diego have won 2, St. Louis City none, with 1 draw.
- 7.Anders Dreyer scored 1 goal in this fixture for San Diego.
Prediction
We predict a narrow 3-2 away win for St. Louis City. The match is expected to be a goal fest, with both sides finding the net, but St. Louis City's consistent scoring streak and attacking depth should see them edge out San Diego in this closely contested fixture.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — San Diego
Away — St. Louis City
The verdict
This clash between San Diego and St. Louis City is set to be a thrilling encounter with plenty of goals. While San Diego will look to leverage their home scoring prowess, St. Louis City's offensive momentum and league position make them the favourites to take all three points.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:17 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Dreyer
Assist: Ingvartsen
Durkin
Yellow Card
Rafael Santos
Ingvartsen
Assist: Dreyer
Jeong Sang-Bin
Perez
Godoy
Becher
Unknown
Valakari
Ingvartsen
Pellegrino
Duah
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +15 | 51 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -5 | 34 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 |
Match Statistics
San Diego
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 6J. TverskovM
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 8O. ValakariM
- 10A. DreyerM
- 18D. FerreeG
- 20A. GodoyM
- 26M. DuahD
- 27L. BombinoD
- 90A. PellegrinoM
- 97C. McVeyD
Substitutes
- 1C. dos SantosG
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 15P. SomaM
- 17O. SøeD
- 21B. DukeM
- 25I. PilcherD
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 77A. MightenF
St. Louis City
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1R. BürkiG
- 6C. WallemM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 11S. BecherF
- 20Rafael SantosM
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 28M. PerezF
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
- 99J. OrozcoD
Substitutes
- 4M. FallD
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 12Célio PompeuM
- 14T. TotlandD
- 15J. YaroD
- 36C. TeuchertF
- 39B. LundtG
- 59M. JoynerM
- 80Brendan McSorleyF
San Diego
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Dreyer | M | 90 | 8.6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0/1 |
| Marcus Ingvartsen | F | 79 | 8.0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Jeppe Tverskov | M | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Christopher McVey | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Duran Ferree | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Onni Valakari | M | 79 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Manu Duah | D | 89 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Luca Bombino | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Kieran Sargeant | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aníbal Godoy(C) | M | 64 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Amahl Pellegrino | M | 89 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Bryan Zamblé | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian Pilcher | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osvald Soe | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oscar Verhoeven | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CJ dos Santos | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Sisniega | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Soma | M | 26 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bryce Duke | M | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Mighten | F | 11 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
St. Louis City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Bürki | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Perez | F | 58 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Christopher Durkin | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Daniel Edelman | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sang-bin Jeong | F | 58 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Timo Baumgartl(C) | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Santos | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Dante Polvara | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Conrad Wallem | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jaziel Orozco | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Simon Becher | F | 64 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Mykhi Joyner | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamadou Mbacke | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joshua Yaro | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Lundt | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lukas MacNaughton | D | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Celio Pompeu | M | 32 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Cedric Teuchert | F | 26 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Tomas Totland | D | 27 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Brendan McSorley | F | 32 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win San Diego vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted St. Louis City to win against San Diego.
- What score did Fipster predict for San Diego vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of San Diego 2–3 St. Louis City.
- What were the win probabilities for San Diego vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster's model gave San Diego a 32% chance of winning, St. Louis City a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.