San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City snatch narrow win at San Diego
André Luiz's penalty secures a slender 1-0 victory away from home.
In a surprising twist, Sporting Kansas City edged out San Diego 1-0 thanks to André Luiz's penalty in the 76th minute. This tight result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a dominant 4-1 home win, proving once again that football loves to keep us on our toes.
Outcome probability
San Diego and Sporting Kansas City face off in the 34th round of the regular season, with San Diego looking to extend their advantage in the league standings. Sporting Kansas City will need to find a way to break their recent scoring drought to challenge their opponents.
Match factors
San Diego's Dreyer as dual threat
Dreyer leads San Diego in goals (14) and assists (12), offering both scoring and creative threat.
Bakambu's high scoring efficiency
Bakambu scores at 0.56 goals/game with strong recent form, likely to exploit Sporting KC's weak defense.
San Diego's superior home scoring form
San Diego averages 2.31 goals at home vs Sporting KC's 0.94 away, favoring a strong home attack.
Sporting KC's scoring drought in recent matches
Top scorers Joveljić and André Luiz have no goals in last 5 games, indicating offensive struggles.
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so no impact from missing key players.
The context
San Diego currently sit 13th in the league with 38 points from 33 games, comfortably ahead of Sporting Kansas City who are 15th with 23 points. The head-to-head record favours San Diego, who have won two of their three previous encounters against Sporting Kansas City, with one draw and no losses.
Key insights
Anders Laustrup Dreyer
San Diego
Dreyer leads San Diego in goals (14) and assists (12), providing a dual threat that is pivotal to their attacking success.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals and 12 assists in 32 appearances
Cédric Bakambu
San Diego
Bakambu's high scoring efficiency, with 5 goals in 9 games and 3 in the last 5, makes him a key player to exploit Sporting Kansas City's weak defence.
Major League Soccer 26/275 goals in 9 appearances, 3 in last 5 games
Dejan Joveljić
Sporting Kansas City
Joveljić is Sporting Kansas City's top scorer with 8 goals but has struggled recently, failing to score in his last 10 games, highlighting the team's offensive woes.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals in 20 appearances, no goals in last 10 games
Analysis
San Diego boast a significantly better goal difference (-5) compared to Sporting Kansas City's -42, reflecting their stronger defensive and offensive performances. Their home scoring average of 2.31 goals per game dwarfs Sporting Kansas City's away average of 0.94, suggesting a potent home attack. Key player Anders Laustrup Dreyer leads the charge with 14 goals and 12 assists this season, while Cédric Bakambu's recent form adds further threat. Sporting Kansas City's top scorers have struggled recently, with no goals in their last five games, indicating offensive challenges.
Key facts
- 1.San Diego have won 2 of 3 head-to-head matches against Sporting Kansas City, with 1 draw and 0 losses.
- 2.San Diego are ranked 13th in the league with 38 points from 33 games, ahead of Sporting Kansas City's 15th place with 23 points.
- 3.San Diego have a better goal difference (-5) compared to Sporting Kansas City's -42 this season.
- 4.San Diego average 2.31 goals per home game, while Sporting Kansas City average 0.94 goals away.
- 5.Top scorer Anders Laustrup Dreyer has 14 goals and 12 assists this season for San Diego.
- 6.Sporting Kansas City's leading scorers have not scored in their last five matches.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a home win for San Diego, with a predicted halftime score of 2-0 and a fulltime score of 4-1. The match is expected to see moderate disciplinary action, with an estimated total of four cards. San Diego's superior form, goal difference, and home scoring record make them strong favourites to secure a comfortable victory.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — San Diego
Away — Sporting Kansas City
The verdict
San Diego look set to continue their strong season with a decisive win over Sporting Kansas City. Their attacking prowess and home advantage should prove too much for their opponents, who will need to address their scoring issues to avoid a heavy defeat.
Prediction generated 2 Nov 2026, 06:20 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Calheira
Ingvartsen
Yellow Card
Soma
B. Zamble
Alvarado
Johnsen
Yellow Card
Duah
Yellow Card
Ingvartsen
Valakari
Johnsen
Reynolds
Yellow Card
McVey
Yellow Card
André Luiz
Penalty
Capita
Afrifa
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | +40 | 64 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United FC | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | -4 | 41 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | -5 | 38 |
| 14 |  Austin | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | -21 | 34 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | -42 | 23 |
Match Statistics
San Diego
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3D. ÞórhallssonD
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 8O. ValakariM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 15P. SomaM
- 26M. DuahD
- 70A. AlvaradoM
- 97C. McVeyD
Substitutes
- 1C. dos SantosG
- 6J. TverskovM
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 19D. VazquezM
- 20A. GodoyM
- 25I. PilcherD
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 90A. PellegrinoF
Sporting Kansas City
4-4-2Starting XI
- 4L. JohnsenM
- 7CapitaM
- 8J. DavisD
- 11André LuizM
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 18E. KarićD
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 28Wyatt MeyerD
- 30S. ClevelandG
- 33O. WolffM
Substitutes
- 1J. PulskampG
- 2I. JamesD
- 13J. ReynoldsD
- 23E. BartlowD
- 24R. RamosF
- 61Z. Loyo ReynagaM
- 93M. SuleymanovF
- 99J. ReidD
San Diego
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Sisniega | G | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. B. Zamble | F | 59 | 7.3 | — | — | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2/2 |
| P. Soma | M | 58 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| D. Þórhallsson | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| M. Duah | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Alvarado | M | 59 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Pellegrino | F | 31 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| D. Vazquez | M | 21 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| J. Tverskov | M | 32 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Pirani | M | 31 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Dreyer | F | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 5 | — |
| Kieran Sargeant | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| C. McVey | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| O. Valakari | M | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| M. Ingvartsen | F | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Godoy | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Verhoeven | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Pilcher | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. dos Santos | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sporting Kansas City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jansen Miller | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 1/1 |
| André Luiz | M | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4/8 |
| S. Cleveland | G | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Karić | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wyatt Meyer | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Johnsen | M | 69 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| S. Afrifa | F | 88 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 3 | — |
| J. Reid | D | 3 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Suleymanov | F | 2 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Wolff | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| J. Reynolds | D | 21 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Capita | M | 87 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| T. Calheira | F | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Ramos | F | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| J. Davis | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Loyo Reynaga | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Pulskamp | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. James | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Bartlow | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted San Diego to win against Sporting Kansas City.
- What score did Fipster predict for San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of San Diego 4–1 Sporting Kansas City.
- What were the win probabilities for San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Fipster's model gave San Diego a 95% chance of winning, Sporting Kansas City a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.