San Diego vs Seattle Sounders
San Diego snatches late draw from Seattle
Bakambu's double, including a stoppage-time penalty, rescues a point for San Diego.
Seattle Sounders looked to be cruising with goals from D. Joveljić and S. Gomez shortly after the break, but San Diego fought back with C. Bakambu scoring twice, the second from the penalty spot deep in stoppage time. A missed penalty by A. Dreyer at 60' added drama to an already tense second half. The 2-2 draw defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow home win, proving this MLS clash was far from settled until the final whistle.
Outcome probability
San Diego and Seattle Sounders face off in what promises to be a tight and entertaining regular season encounter. Both sides have shown competitive form, setting the stage for a match where goals and drama are expected.
Match factors
Dreyer's dual threat as scorer and assister
Anders Dreyer leads San Diego with 9 goals and 12 assists, making him central to their attacking play
Ingvartsen's consistent scoring presence
Marcus Ingvartsen's 12 goals and strong home form provide San Diego a reliable striker option
Seattle's Joveljić in strong recent scoring form
Dejan Joveljić has 4 goals in 6 games, showing high efficiency and recent impact
Seattle missing key attacker Rothrock
Paul Rothrock is confirmed out with a hamstring injury, reducing Seattle's attacking options
San Diego's scoring streak at home
San Diego has scored in 4 of last 5 home games, indicating strong offensive momentum
The context
This fixture is part of the 31st round of the regular season. Seattle Sounders currently sit 7th in the league with 41 points, while San Diego are 13th with 33 points. Their head-to-head record is evenly matched with one win each and a draw from three meetings, highlighting the balanced nature of this rivalry.
Key insights
Anders Laustrup Dreyer
San Diego
Leads San Diego with 9 goals and 12 assists, making him central to their attacking play.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals and 12 assists in 25 apps this season, 1.0 avg goals/game in last 5
Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen
San Diego
Top scorer with 12 goals and strong home form, providing a reliable striking option.
Major League Soccer 26/2712 goals in 22 apps this season, 0.55 avg goals/game
Dejan Joveljić
Seattle Sounders
In strong recent scoring form with 4 goals in 6 games, a key attacking threat.
Major League Soccer 26/274 goals in 6 apps, 0.67 avg goals/game this season
Analysis
Seattle Sounders boast a better goal difference (+5) compared to San Diego's -3, reflecting a stronger overall performance this season. However, San Diego's attacking momentum at home, scoring in four of their last five home games, could prove decisive. Key players like Anders Laustrup Dreyer, who leads San Diego with 9 goals and 12 assists, and Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen, their top scorer with 12 goals, are expected to spearhead the home side's attack. Seattle's Dejan Joveljić, with 4 goals in 6 games, remains a potent threat despite the absence of Paul Rothrock due to a hamstring injury.
Key facts
- 1.San Diego and Seattle Sounders have each won one and drawn one in their three meetings.
- 2.Seattle Sounders have a superior goal difference (+5) compared to San Diego (-3) this season.
- 3.Seattle Sounders are 7th in the league with 41 points; San Diego are 13th with 33 points.
- 4.San Diego have scored in four of their last five home games, showing strong offensive form.
- 5.Anders Laustrup Dreyer leads San Diego with 9 goals and 12 assists this season.
- 6.Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen is San Diego's top scorer with 12 goals.
- 7.Seattle's Dejan Joveljić has scored 4 goals in 6 games, indicating good recent form.
- 8.Paul Rothrock is out with a hamstring injury, weakening Seattle's attack.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a home win for San Diego with a 3-2 scoreline. While the match is finely balanced, the home side's attacking prowess and recent scoring streak give them the edge in what should be a closely fought contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — San Diego
Away — Seattle Sounders
The verdict
Expect an exciting encounter with both teams pushing for goals. San Diego's ability to capitalise on home advantage and key player contributions should see them narrowly overcome Seattle Sounders in a 3-2 thriller.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 04:39 UTC · Fipster Model v1.164
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Ferreira
Joveljić
Joveljić
Yellow Card
Gomez
Assist: Dotson
Penalty confirmed
Roldan
Yellow Card
Bakambu
Dreyer
Missed Penalty
Godoy
Pellegrino
Alvarado
Roldan
Morris
Sargeant
Joveljić
Dotson
Pirani
Bakambu
Penalty
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | +40 | 64 |
| 9 |  Colorado Rapids | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | -1 | 43 |
| 10 |  Seattle Sounders | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 42 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United FC | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | -4 | 41 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | -5 | 38 |
| 14 |  Austin | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | -21 | 34 |
Match Statistics
San Diego
4-3-3Starting XI
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 10A. DreyerF
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 20A. GodoyM
- 26M. DuahD
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 70A. AlvaradoM
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 94C. BakambuF
- 97C. McVeyD
Substitutes
- 1C. dos SantosG
- 3D. ÞórhallssonD
- 6J. TverskovM
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 8O. ValakariM
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 23S. VinesD
- 25I. PilcherD
Seattle Sounders
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5N. ToloD
- 7C. RoldanM
- 9D. JoveljićF
- 11A. RusnákM
- 13J. MorrisM
- 16A. RoldanD
- 25J. RagenD
- 26A. ThomasG
- 27J. FerreiraM
- 31H. DotsonM
- 85K. Kossa-RienziD
Substitutes
- 4R. SailorD
- 8C. ClarkM
- 17P. ArriolaF
- 24S. FreiG
- 37S. BrunellM
- 39S. HawkinsD
- 45P. KingstonM
- 81M. BronnikF
- 90S. GomezM
San Diego
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bakambu | F | 90 | 8.2 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1/3 |
| Kieran Sargeant | D | 72 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Duah | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. McVey | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Verhoeven | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| P. Sisniega | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ingvartsen | F | 29 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Pirani | M | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| A. Alvarado | M | 61 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Pellegrino | F | 61 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Godoy | M | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Dreyer | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| S. Vines | D | 18 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Tverskov | M | 29 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| O. Valakari | M | 29 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Pilcher | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. B. Zamble | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Þórhallsson | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. dos Santos | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Seattle Sounders
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Joveljić | F | 80 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| S. Gomez | M | 44 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| H. Dotson | M | 80 | 7.4 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| K. Kossa-Rienzi | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Ragen | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Rusnák | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | — | 3 | — |
| C. Roldan | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Tolo | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| P. Arriola | F | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Morris | M | 68 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Hawkins | D | 26 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Brunell | M | 22 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| A. Roldan | D | 64 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Thomas | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Kingston | M | 10 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Ferreira | M | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Bronnik | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Sailor | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Clark | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Frei | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win San Diego vs Seattle Sounders?
- Fipster's AI model predicted San Diego to win against Seattle Sounders.
- What score did Fipster predict for San Diego vs Seattle Sounders?
- Fipster predicted a final score of San Diego 3–2 Seattle Sounders.
- What were the win probabilities for San Diego vs Seattle Sounders?
- Fipster's model gave San Diego a 35% chance of winning, Seattle Sounders a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.