San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes
Earthquakes edge San Diego in five-goal thriller
San Jose's early blitz secures a narrow win despite late San Diego fightback.
San Jose Earthquakes stormed ahead with three first-half goals from N. Tsakiris and P. Judd, setting the tone early on. San Diego responded with goals from A. Dreyer and a stoppage-time penalty by C. Bakambu, but it wasn't enough to overturn the deficit. This 3-2 victory defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 4-0 San Diego win, delivering an unexpected result in this Major League Soccer clash.
Outcome probability
San Diego and San Jose Earthquakes face off in a regular season clash where San Diego look poised to assert their attacking prowess. With both teams having split their previous encounters evenly, this match promises to be a showcase of tactical discipline and goal-scoring intent.
Match factors
San Diego's attacking trio in strong form
Ingvartsen, Dreyer, and Pellegrino combine high scoring and assist rates, especially at home, creating multiple goal threats.
Dreyer's creative dominance at home
Dreyer's 10 assists this season and 1.0 assist per game at home surpass league averages, boosting San Diego's attack.
San Jose missing key attacker Timo Werner
Werner is confirmed out, removing a key goal threat and reducing San Jose's attacking options significantly.
San Diego's strong home scoring streak
San Diego has scored in all last 5 home games, averaging 2.5 goals, indicating strong offensive momentum at home.
San Jose's reliance on Preston Judd
Judd leads San Jose with 11 goals but recent form shows no goals in last 5, indicating potential vulnerability.
The context
San Diego currently sit 8th in the league with 30 points from 22 games, while San Jose Earthquakes hold a slightly better position at 4th with 34 points. Their head-to-head history is balanced, with each side winning twice in four meetings and no draws, averaging just over two goals per game. This fixture could tip the scales in the race for higher league standings.
Key insights
Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen
San Diego
Leads team scoring with 11 goals, showing strong home form and key attacking role.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals in 19 apps, 0.58 avg per game
Anders Laustrup Dreyer
San Diego
Top assister with 10 assists, especially effective at home, driving the team's creativity.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 assists in 19 apps, 0.53 avg per game
Preston Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
Main striker with 11 goals but currently in a goal drought over last 5 games.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals in 21 apps, 0.52 avg per game
Analysis
San Diego's attacking trio, led by Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen, Anders Laustrup Dreyer, and Amahl D'Vaz Pellegrino, have been in fine form, especially at home. Ingvartsen tops the scoring charts for his team with 11 goals, complemented by Dreyer's 10 assists, making them a formidable force. San Jose's main striker Preston Judd also has 11 goals but has struggled to find the net recently, which could be a concern. Additionally, San Jose will miss key attacker Timo Werner, further weakening their offensive options. San Diego's recent home scoring streak, averaging 2.5 goals in their last five home games, adds to their attacking momentum.
Key facts
- 1.San Diego are 8th in the league with 30 points from 22 games (W8 D6 L8).
- 2.San Jose Earthquakes are 4th with 34 points from 22 games (W10 D4 L8).
- 3.In 4 head-to-head matches, both teams have won twice with no draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.3 goals per game.
- 5.San Diego have scored in all of their last 5 home games, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
- 6.Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen leads San Diego with 11 goals this season.
- 7.Anders Laustrup Dreyer has provided 10 assists, the highest in his team.
- 8.San Jose's Preston Judd has 11 goals but has not scored in his last 5 games.
Prediction
We expect San Diego to take an early lead and dominate proceedings, reflected in a predicted halftime score of 2-0. Their offensive firepower should continue into the second half, culminating in a comprehensive 4-0 victory. The match is also expected to be moderately physical, with around three cards likely to be shown.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — San Diego
Away — San Jose Earthquakes
The verdict
San Diego look set to deliver a commanding performance against San Jose Earthquakes, capitalising on their home form and attacking strengths. San Jose will need to regroup quickly after this one, as the visitors' recent struggles and missing key players could prove costly.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Tsakiris
Assist: Leroux
Penalty confirmed
Red card cancelled
dos Santos
Yellow Card
Tsakiris
Missed Penalty
Judd
Assist: Tsakiris
Judd
Yellow Card
McVey
Yellow Card
Judd
Bouda
Assist: Tsakiris
Bouda
Yellow Card
Dreyer
Assist: Valakari
Pirani
Leroux
Yellow Card
Roberts
Godoy
Jovanović
Þórhallsson
Tverskov
Yellow Card
Jasinski
Leroux
Valakari
Floriani
Yellow Card
dos Santos
Red Card
Alvarado
Penalty confirmed
Floriani
Red Card
Bakambu
Penalty
Vieira
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | +30 | 46 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | +7 | 43 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | +8 | 41 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | +7 | 41 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 30 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | -9 | 30 |
Match Statistics
San Diego
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1C. dos SantosG
- 3D. ÞórhallssonD
- 6J. TverskovM
- 8O. ValakariF
- 10A. DreyerF
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 20A. GodoyM
- 26M. DuahD
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 97C. McVeyD
- 99E. AchouriF
Substitutes
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 18D. FerreeG
- 19D. VazquezM
- 21B. DukeM
- 32I. MurphyD
- 70A. AlvaradoF
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 94C. BakambuF
San Jose Earthquakes
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1A. GunnG
- 4D. RomneyD
- 5D. MunieD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 9L. JovanovićM
- 10N. TsakirisM
- 17Jack JasinskiM
- 18R. RobertsD
- 19P. JuddF
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 87Vítor CostaM
Substitutes
- 2J. RickettsD
- 7O. BoudaF
- 14R. VieiraM
- 16J. SkahanM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 23E. LöwenM
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 28B. KikanovicF
- 31Francesco MontaliG
San Diego
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Dreyer | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | — |
| C. Bakambu | F | 22 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| O. Valakari | F | 68 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| M. Duah | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Achouri | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| A. Pellegrino | F | 43 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| J. Tverskov | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Alvarado | F | 36 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| C. McVey | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Þórhallsson | D | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Godoy | M | 46 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kieran Sargeant | D | 44 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Pirani | M | 47 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. dos Santos | G | 80 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Verhoeven | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| D. Ferree | G | 8 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. B. Zamble | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Duke | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Murphy | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Vazquez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
San Jose Earthquakes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Tsakiris | M | 90 | 9.1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | — |
| P. Judd | F | 30 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| O. Bouda | F | 60 | 7.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Beau Leroux | M | 67 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| E. Löwen | M | 44 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| D. Munie | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Gunn | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Romney | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Roberts | D | 46 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Kikanovic | F | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vítor Costa | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| I. Harkes | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Jack Jasinski | M | 67 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Jovanović | M | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Vieira | M | 23 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Floriani | D | 46 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Ricketts | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Skahan | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francesco Montali | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Fernandez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |