San Diego vs Real Salt Lake
Match recap
San Diego and Real Salt Lake drew 2–2 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Ingvartsen and Dreyer scored for San Diego; Solans and Olatunji replied for Real Salt Lake. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.51 for San Diego versus 3.04 for Real Salt Lake. San Diego sit 12th in the Major League Soccer table while Real Salt Lake are 10th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 San Diego win
Actual
2–2
Outcome probability
San Diego and Real Salt Lake are gearing up for an intriguing clash in the regular season. Both sides have shown glimpses of quality, but the prediction leans towards a decisive home victory.
Match factors
San Diego's attacking duo in strong form
Dreyer and Ingvartsen lead San Diego's attack with 23 combined goals and strong recent scoring form
Real Salt Lake missing key midfielder Luna
Diego Luna is confirmed out due to knee injury, reducing Real Salt Lake's midfield creativity and goal threat
San Diego's home scoring advantage
San Diego averages 2.29 goals per home game, above league average, supporting predicted 3 goals
Dreyer's consistent assist contributions
Dreyer has 12 assists this season with 2 in last 5 games, showing sustained creative impact
Real Salt Lake's Solans as main goal threat
Solans leads Real Salt Lake with 11 goals, strong home form, key to their scoring chances
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season's fifth round, with both teams sitting mid-table and eager to climb higher. San Diego currently rank 12th with 32 points, while Real Salt Lake are just above them in 11th place, also on 32 points. Their recent encounters have been competitive, averaging 4.5 goals per match, promising an entertaining contest.
Key insights
Anders Laustrup Dreyer
San Diego
Leads team in goals and assists, key creative force with strong recent form.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals and 12 assists in 27 apps, 0.41 goals/game, 0.44 assists/game
Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen
San Diego
Top scorer with 12 goals, consistent starter and captain, vital for attack.
Major League Soccer 26/2712 goals in 24 apps, 0.5 goals/game
- D
Diego Luna
Real Salt Lake
Confirmed out with knee injury, weakening Real Salt Lake's midfield creativity.
S. Solans
Real Salt Lake
Main goal threat with 11 goals, strong home form, key to scoring chances.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals in 26 apps, 0.42 goals/game
Analysis
San Diego's attacking duo, Anders Dreyer and Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen, have been in fine form, combining for 23 goals this season. Dreyer, in particular, is a creative force with 12 assists and 11 goals, making him a constant threat. Real Salt Lake will miss Diego Luna, their key midfielder, due to a knee injury, which could hamper their midfield creativity. Meanwhile, Real Salt Lake's Sergi Solans remains their main goal threat with 11 goals, but the visitors may struggle to contain San Diego's home scoring prowess, averaging 2.29 goals per home game.
Key facts
- 1.San Diego rank 12th with 32 points from 28 games (W8 D8 L12).
- 2.Real Salt Lake rank 11th with 32 points from 28 games (W9 D5 L14).
- 3.San Diego average 2.29 goals per home game, above league average.
- 4.Anders Dreyer leads San Diego with 11 goals and 12 assists this season.
- 5.Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen has scored 12 goals this season for San Diego.
- 6.Real Salt Lake's Diego Luna is out with a knee injury, reducing midfield creativity.
- 7.Sergi Solans is Real Salt Lake's top scorer with 11 goals this season.
- 8.Previous head-to-head matches average 4.5 goals per game.
Prediction
We expect San Diego to take control early, leading 2-0 at halftime and finishing the match 3-1 winners. The home side's attacking momentum and Real Salt Lake's midfield absence should prove decisive. The match is also likely to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but fair encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — San Diego
Away — Real Salt Lake
The verdict
In summary, San Diego's strong home form and attacking talents give them the edge over Real Salt Lake. While the visitors have their own threats, the absence of a key midfielder and San Diego's clinical finishing should secure a confident home win.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:29 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Penalty cancelled
Solans
Assist: Sanabria
Ingvartsen
Caliskan
Yellow Card
Hezarkhani
Dillon
Yellow Card
Dreyer
Assist: Pellegrino
Penalty cancelled
Verhoeven
Vazquez
Solans
Dillon
Pellegrino
Olatunji
Assist: Guilavogui
McVey
Yellow Card
Godoy
Yellow Card
McVey
Yellow Card
McVey
Red Card
Valakari
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 9 |  Colorado Rapids | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 |  Real Salt Lake | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -3 | 36 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -5 | 34 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 |
Match Statistics
San Diego
4-3-3Starting XI
- 6J. TverskovM
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 8O. ValakariM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 18D. FerreeG
- 19D. VazquezM
- 26M. DuahD
- 27L. BombinoD
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 97C. McVeyD
Substitutes
- 9L. MorganF
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 17O. SøeD
- 20A. GodoyM
- 21B. DukeM
- 22W. EisnerD
- 29A. SaidiF
- 77A. MightenF
Real Salt Lake
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 4L. EngelD
- 8J. SanabriaM
- 9M. GuilavoguiF
- 15J. GladD
- 22S. SolansF
- 26P. QuintonD
- 27G. DillonM
- 39A. HezarkhaniF
- 72Z. GozoM
- 92N. CaliskanM
Substitutes
- 6S. SpieringsM
- 10D. LunaM
- 11D. MarczukF
- 17V. OlatunjiF
- 29S. JunquaD
- 31M. StajduharG
- 34L. MoisaM
- 36Jesús Rafael Barea BarrosoF
- 98A. KatránisD
San Diego
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Dreyer | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Manu Duah | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Luca Bombino | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Marcus Ingvartsen | F | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Onni Valakari | M | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Amahl Pellegrino | F | 74 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | — |
| Duran Ferree | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oscar Verhoeven | D | 63 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jeppe Tverskov(C) | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| David Vazquez | M | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Christopher McVey | D | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Bryan Zamblé | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bryce Duke | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Mighten | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Sisniega | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anisse Saidi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osvald Soe | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lewis Morgan | F | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aníbal Godoy | M | 27 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wilson Eisner | D | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Real Salt Lake
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Guilavogui | F | 90 | 7.9 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2/4 |
| Lukas Engel | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Sergi Solans | F | 67 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Zavier Gozo | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 3/4 |
| Griffin Dillon | M | 67 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Juan Manuel Sanabria | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Noel Caliskan | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Justen Glad | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Philip Quinton | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Aiden Hezarkhani | F | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Rafael Cabral(C) | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Luca Moisa | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesus Barea | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexandros Katranis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dominik Marczuk | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sam Junqua | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mason Stajduhar | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Olatunji | F | 23 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 5 | 4 | — | — |
| Stijn Spierings | M | 23 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Luna | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 5 | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win San Diego vs Real Salt Lake?
- Fipster's AI model predicted San Diego to win against Real Salt Lake.
- What score did Fipster predict for San Diego vs Real Salt Lake?
- Fipster predicted a final score of San Diego 3–1 Real Salt Lake.
- What were the win probabilities for San Diego vs Real Salt Lake?
- Fipster's model gave San Diego a 95% chance of winning, Real Salt Lake a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.