Rio Ave vs Estrela
Rio Ave and Estrela share six-goal thriller
A pulsating 3-3 draw sees both sides trade blows in a lively Primeira Liga encounter.
Estrela looked to be cruising with two goals from A. Marcus and an early strike by I. Stoica, but Rio Ave fought back fiercely. F. Petrasso's stoppage-time equaliser before half-time set the tone, and R. Galčík plus J. Blesa's penalty after the break ensured a thrilling draw. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of an away win for Estrela, proving the home side had more fight than expected.
Outcome probability
As the regular season unfolds, Rio Ave face a stern test against Estrela, who have been showing impressive form. This clash promises goals and tactical intrigue, with Estrela expected to assert their superiority early on.
Match factors
Rio Ave's key attackers showing recent scoring form
Jalen Blesa and Tamble Monteiro each scored in recent matches, boosting Rio Ave's attacking threat despite overall team struggles
Estrela's attacking players in strong form
Estrela's Ianis Stoica, Abraham Marcus, and Leandro Antonetti have all scored recently, underpinning their predicted 3-goal output
Rio Ave's low home scoring and high conceding rates
Rio Ave averages 0 goals and 3 conceded at home, indicating defensive vulnerabilities Estrela can exploit
Estrela's midfield creativity vs Rio Ave's defensive frailty
Estrela's midfielders like Abraham Marcus and Eddy Doue provide creative edge against Rio Ave's leaky defense
The context
Estrela currently enjoy a notable advantage in points per game and goal difference compared to Rio Ave. Despite Rio Ave's historical edge in head-to-head wins, Estrela's recent performances and attacking prowess suggest a shift in momentum for this fixture.
Key insights
Jalen Miller Blesa
Rio Ave
Key attacker with recent goal and assist, vital for Rio Ave's offensive hopes despite team struggles.
Primeira Liga 26/271 goal in 5 appearances, 438 mins played
Tamble Monteiro
Rio Ave
Consistent starter with goal contribution, likely to be involved in Rio Ave's attacking moments.
Primeira Liga 26/271 goal in 5 appearances, 374 mins played
- I
Ianis Stoica
Estrela
Central to Estrela's attack with multiple recent goals and high match ratings, underpinning their offensive threat.
Primeira Liga 26/27Multiple goals recently, high match ratings
- A
Abraham Marcus
Estrela
Consistent goal scorer and creative midfielder, providing a tactical edge against Rio Ave's defence.
Primeira Liga 26/27High rating and minutes
- L
Leandro Antonetti
Estrela
Key forward with multiple goals in recent matches, contributing significantly to Estrela's predicted 3-goal output.
Primeira Liga 26/27Multiple goals recently, high match ratings
Analysis
Estrela's attacking trio, including Ianis Stoica, Abraham Marcus, and Leandro Antonetti, have been in fine form, contributing multiple goals recently. Rio Ave's key attackers, Jalen Miller Blesa and Tamble Monteiro, have shown flashes of scoring ability but face a tough defensive challenge. Rio Ave's home record reveals a tendency to concede multiple goals, which Estrela's creative midfielders are poised to exploit. The prediction of a 0-3 halftime lead for Estrela aligns with their strong away dominance and Rio Ave's defensive vulnerabilities.
Key facts
- 1.Estrela have a significantly better goal difference (11 goals) than Rio Ave this season.
- 2.Estrela average 1.80 points per game, compared to Rio Ave's 0.60.
- 3.In 8 head-to-head meetings, Rio Ave have won 5, Estrela 1, with 2 draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.9 goals, with Rio Ave scoring 15 and Estrela 8 in total.
- 5.Rio Ave concede an average of 3 goals at home, highlighting defensive frailty.
- 6.Estrela's predicted halftime lead is 0-3, indicating early dominance.
- 7.The modal fulltime score prediction is 1-3 in favour of Estrela.
- 8.A total of 4 cards is expected, suggesting moderate discipline.
Prediction
We anticipate Estrela to take an early commanding lead, reflected in the predicted 0-3 halftime score. Rio Ave may pull one back, but Estrela's consistency and attacking depth should secure a 3-1 victory by full time, with moderate disciplinary action expected throughout the match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Rio Ave
Away — Estrela
No standout top scorers flagged for Estrela
The verdict
In summary, Estrela's superior form and attacking threat make them the clear favourites to claim all three points. Rio Ave will need to tighten their defence and find more offensive spark to challenge this prediction, but the signs point to an away win with a 3-1 scoreline.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Stoica
Assist: Antonetti
Scholze
Yellow Card
Petrasso
Yellow Card
Petrasso
Assist: Bezerra
Marcus
Assist: Scholze
Clemmensen
Galčík
Assist: Bezerra
Eddy Doue
Yellow Card
Marcus
Assist: Stoica
Eddy Doue
Patricio
Nikitscher
João Tomé
Pedro Amaral
Scholze
Santiago Serra
Leković
Yellow Card
Blesa
Penalty
Stoica
Marcus
Tamble Monteiro
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +13 | 18 |
| 7 |  Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 |  Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 |  GIL Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 4 |
Match Statistics
Rio Ave
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5A. NtoiM
- 7Diogo BezerraM
- 11J. BlesaF
- 20João ToméD
- 23F. PetrassoD
- 24Pedro AmaralD
- 44T. NikitscherM
- 79M. PatricioM
- 80S. ClemmensenM
- 99E. van der GouwG
Substitutes
- 6N. AbbeyD
- 9Tamble MonteiroF
- 17M. VrousaiF
- 19M. SelloukiM
- 30R. GalčíkF
- 39Gustavo ManchaD
- 54G. LiavasM
- 60CaikeD
- 70A. WenckM
- 77D. ŠpikićF
Estrela
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5S. LekovićD
- 10I. StoicaM
- 14L. ZvonarekM
- 21M. ScholzeD
- 24Léo LinckG
- 37L. AntonettiF
- 39Eddy DoueM
- 55Rafa SoaresD
- 78Santiago SerraM
- 99A. MarcusM
Substitutes
- 3L. Mincarelli DavinD
- 4Bernardo SchappoD
- 6K. Höög JanssonM
- 8RobinhoM
- 17Jefferson EncadaD
- 19Joan JordánM
- 22David GriloG
- 49R. MutebaF
- 51Diogo PintoG
- 71E. Pedro VangaM
- 80AlissonF
- 93B. SouzaM
Rio Ave
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Bezerra | M | 90 | 8.2 | — | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2/9 |
| R. Galčík | F | 36 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Blesa | F | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| F. Petrasso | D | 90 | 6.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Vrousai | F | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Patricio | M | 63 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Pedro Amaral | D | 68 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. Nikitscher | M | 68 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tamble Monteiro | F | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| E. van der Gouw | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ntoi | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| João Tomé | D | 68 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| N. Abbey | D | 22 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Clemmensen | M | 54 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Sellouki | M | 22 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Wenck | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caike | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Mancha | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Špikić | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Liavas | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Estrela
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Marcus | M | 84 | 9.1 | 2 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1/2 |
| I. Stoica | M | 84 | 8.1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2/2 |
| L. Antonetti | F | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Rafa Soares | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 5 | — |
| Santiago Serra | M | 72 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Alisson | F | 6 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Zvonarek | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| M. Scholze | D | 71 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Eddy Doue | M | 63 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| S. Leković | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Jefferson Encada | D | 18 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Joan Jordán | M | 27 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Höög Jansson | M | 19 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| B. Souza | M | 6 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Léo Linck | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogo Pinto | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robinho | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Pedro Vanga | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Muteba | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bernardo Schappo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Grilo | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Mincarelli Davin | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Rio Ave vs Estrela?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Estrela to win against Rio Ave.
- What score did Fipster predict for Rio Ave vs Estrela?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Rio Ave 1–3 Estrela.
- What were the win probabilities for Rio Ave vs Estrela?
- Fipster's model gave Rio Ave a 7% chance of winning, Estrela a 85% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.