Riga vs Kairat Almaty
Kairat and Riga share spoils in early drama
A penalty and a quick reply set the tone for a tight 1-1 draw.
Kairat Almaty took an early lead through Marc Gual's penalty at 5 minutes, only for Riga's S. Oulad M'Hand to equalise shortly after at 12 minutes. Riga missed a chance to take the lead with a penalty miss by M. Badamosi at 28 minutes, and the match ended in a 1-1 stalemate. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow home win.
Outcome probability
This group stage fixture sees Riga and Kairat Almaty face off in what promises to be a closely contested match. Both teams will be eager to gain valuable points as the competition progresses.
Match factors
Riga's attacking threat led by Caio's efficient scoring
Caio has scored 1 goal in just 13 minutes this season, showing high scoring efficiency despite limited playtime.
A. Salazar's assist rate well above league average for defenders
Salazar has 2 assists in last 5 games, averaging 0.4 assists per game, far exceeding the league defender average of 0.04.
Riga's positive scoring streak at home
Riga has scored in their last 3 home games, averaging 3 goals per home game, supporting the predicted 2-1 home win.
Salazar's set-piece and wide playmaking role key to unlocking opponent defense
As a defender with high assist numbers and crossing ability, Salazar provides tactical width and set-piece threat.
The context
Riga have played six matches in this competition so far, recording three wins, two draws, and one loss, scoring eight goals and conceding six. Their recent home form has been positive, with goals in their last three home games, averaging three goals per home match. Kairat Almaty will be looking to disrupt this momentum and claim points of their own.
Key insights
Caio
Riga
Caio has shown remarkable scoring efficiency with 1 goal in just 13 minutes this season, making him a potent threat despite limited playtime.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/271 goal in 5 games, 13 total minutes played
A. Salazar
Riga
Salazar’s assist rate is exceptional for a defender, with 2 assists in the last 5 games, far exceeding the league average and providing crucial creativity.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/272 assists in last 5 games, averaging 0.4 assists per game
Analysis
The prediction leans towards a home win for Riga, with the most probable scoreline being 2-1. This aligns with their recent scoring streak at home and the attacking threat posed by Caio, who has been efficient with his limited minutes, scoring once in just 13 minutes of play. Defender A. Salazar also stands out with his creative influence, boasting two assists in the last five games and a high assist rate well above the league average for defenders. The match is expected to be moderately disciplined, with an anticipated total of four cards.
Key facts
- 1.Riga have a group stage record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in this competition.
- 2.Riga have scored 8 goals and conceded 6 in their six matches so far.
- 3.Caio has scored 1 goal in just 13 minutes of play this season, showing high efficiency.
- 4.A. Salazar has 2 assists in the last 5 games, averaging 0.4 assists per game, well above the league defender average of 0.04.
- 5.Riga have scored in their last 3 home games, averaging 3 goals per home match.
- 6.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4, indicating moderate discipline.
Prediction
We expect Riga to clinch a narrow 2-1 victory over Kairat Almaty. Caio’s goal-scoring efficiency and Salazar’s playmaking from defence are likely to be decisive factors. The game should be competitive, but Riga’s recent home form gives them the edge.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
The verdict
While the prediction favours Riga, the low confidence in this call suggests the match could be finely balanced. Fans can anticipate an entertaining encounter with key moments from standout performers potentially tipping the scales.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
No recent fixture data
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Kairat Almaty has no record in this competition yet, so there is nothing to compare these totals against.
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Gual
Penalty
Oulad M'Hand
Assist: Toņiševs
Oksanen
Yellow Card
Badamosi
Missed Penalty · Assist: Badamosi
Tapalov
Yellow Card
Badamosi
Edmilson
Mrynskiy
Gustavo Mendonça
Aouani
Diop
Martynovich
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| 16 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 17 |  Riga | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 18 |  FC Midtjylland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 26 |  Getafe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 27 |  Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 28 |  Ajax | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Match Statistics
Riga
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5K. WassomD
- 7R. AouaniM
- 8Iago Siqueira AugustoM
- 12K. PirićG
- 13R. JurkovskisD
- 18S. Oulad M'HandM
- 19M. BadamosiF
- 21B. MusahD
- 22M. DiopM
- 23M. ToņiševsD
- 40A. AnkrahM
Substitutes
- 6C. SacoM
- 10Reginaldo RamiresF
- 25A. TaiwoF
- 34A. ČernomordijsD
- 44M. KazainisG
- 91F. OrolsG
Kairat Almaty
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1T. AnarbekovG
- 3Luís MataD
- 9EdmilsonF
- 13J. OksanenM
- 14A. MartynovichD
- 19O. JukkolaM
- 20E. TapalovD
- 22Gustavo MendonçaM
- 24A. MrynskiyM
- 25A. ShirobokovD
- 28Marc GualM
Substitutes
- 4D. KasabulatD
- 5L. KurginD
- 6A. SadybekovM
- 8O. BaybekM
- 15M. BirkurmanovF
- 17A. TuyakbayevM
- 81I. BekbolatF
- 82S. KalmurzaG
Riga
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salah Oulad M'Hand | M | 88 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2/5 |
| Karl Gameni Wassom | D | 88 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago Siqueira Augusto | M | 88 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3/3 |
| Kenan Pirić | G | 88 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Raki Aouani | M | 86 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/6 |
| Ahmed Ankrah | M | 88 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Baba Musah | D | 88 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Maksims Tonisevs | D | 88 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Meïssa Diop | M | 86 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Muhammed Badamosi | F | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Raivis Jurkovskis(C) | D | 88 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Marcis Kazainis | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antonijs Černomordijs | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdulrahman Taiwo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Frenks Orols | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Coli Saco | M | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reginaldo Ramires | F | 27 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
Kairat Almaty
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temirlan Anarbekov | G | 88 | 8.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erkin Tapalov | D | 88 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Gustavo Mendonca | M | 79 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Oiva Jukkola | M | 88 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Aleksandr Mrynskiy | M | 79 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Edmilson | F | 73 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Marc Gual | M | 88 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Aleksandr Martynovich(C) | D | 88 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jaakko Oksanen | M | 88 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Aleksandr Shirobokov | D | 88 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luís Mata | D | 88 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Adilet Sadybekov | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lev Kurgin | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Olzhas Baibek | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sherkhan Kalmurza | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mansur Birkurmanov | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Azamat Tuyakbayev | M | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ismail Bekbolat | F | 15 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Damir Kasabulat | D | 9 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Riga vs Kairat Almaty?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Riga to win against Kairat Almaty.
- What score did Fipster predict for Riga vs Kairat Almaty?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Riga 2–1 Kairat Almaty.
- What were the win probabilities for Riga vs Kairat Almaty?
- Fipster's model gave Riga a 37% chance of winning, Kairat Almaty a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 37% confidence — a low-confidence call.