Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
Earthquakes snatch draw at the death
San Jose's Jack Jasinski rescues a point with a stoppage-time strike.
Real Salt Lake looked set to claim victory thanks to L. De Fougerolles' 79th-minute goal, but San Jose Earthquakes refused to lie down. Jack Jasinski's 90+4' equaliser ensured the spoils were shared in a 1-1 draw. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 3-2 home win, proving the Earthquakes' resilience in the dying moments.
Outcome probability
Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes face off in a regular season MLS match that promises goals and drama. Both teams boast attacking talents capable of lighting up the scoreboard, setting the stage for an entertaining contest.
Match factors
Real Salt Lake's home scoring strength
Real Salt Lake averages 1.93 goals per home game, leveraging strong attacking players like Solans and Luna
San Jose's prolific striker Preston Judd
Judd leads with 15 goals and excellent recent form, posing a major threat to Real Salt Lake's defense
San Jose's consistent scoring streak
San Jose has scored in their last 5 games, showing strong offensive momentum
San Jose missing key defenders Jones and Roberts
Two defenders confirmed out weaken San Jose's backline, increasing Real Salt Lake's scoring chances
Real Salt Lake's top assister Guilavogui's creative influence
Guilavogui's 5 assists and high key passes boost Real Salt Lake's attacking threat
The context
San Jose Earthquakes currently sit 4th in the league with 45 points, enjoying a positive goal difference of +14. Real Salt Lake are 11th with 32 points and a goal difference of -4. This contrast in league position and goal difference highlights San Jose's stronger overall form, but Real Salt Lake's home scoring prowess cannot be overlooked.
Key insights
S. Solans
Real Salt Lake
Top scorer with 10 goals and a strong home scoring rate of 0.6 goals per game in the last 10 home matches, making him a key attacking threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals in 24 appearances, 0.42 goals/game
P. Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
League-leading scorer with 15 goals and excellent recent form, scoring 4 goals in the last 5 games, posing a major threat to Real Salt Lake’s defence.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 22 appearances, 0.68 goals/game
M. Guilavogui
Real Salt Lake
Top assister with 5 assists, heavily involved in build-up play and key passes, boosting Real Salt Lake’s attacking potential.
Major League Soccer 26/275 assists in 20 appearances, 0.25 assists/game
N. Tsakiris
San Jose Earthquakes
Top assister for San Jose with 7 assists and strong recent form, providing creativity and chances for the forwards.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 17 appearances, 0.41 assists/game
Analysis
Real Salt Lake average an impressive 1.93 goals per home game, with key attackers like S. Solans, who has netted 10 goals this season and boasts a strong home scoring rate. Midfielder D. Luna also contributes significantly with 5 goals and a good recent run. San Jose's attack is spearheaded by P. Judd, the league's top scorer with 15 goals and excellent recent form. However, San Jose will be without key defenders Jones and Roberts, which could weaken their backline and provide Real Salt Lake with scoring opportunities. Creative influences like M. Guilavogui for Real Salt Lake and N. Tsakiris for San Jose will be crucial in unlocking defences.
Key facts
- 1.San Jose Earthquakes rank 4th with 45 points from 27 games (W13 D6 L8).
- 2.Real Salt Lake are 11th with 32 points from 27 games (W9 D5 L13).
- 3.San Jose have a +14 goal difference; Real Salt Lake have -4.
- 4.Real Salt Lake average 1.93 goals per home game this season.
- 5.P. Judd leads the league with 15 goals, including 4 in his last 5 games.
- 6.S. Solans has scored 10 goals this season, with a strong home scoring rate.
- 7.San Jose will miss key defenders Jones and Roberts, weakening their defence.
- 8.M. Guilavogui leads Real Salt Lake with 5 assists and is a key creative player.
Prediction
Despite San Jose's superior league standing and goal difference, the prediction favours a home win for Real Salt Lake by a narrow 3-2 margin. The combination of Real Salt Lake's attacking strength at home and San Jose's defensive absences suggests a high-scoring encounter with the hosts edging it.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Real Salt Lake
Away — San Jose Earthquakes
The verdict
Expect an entertaining match with plenty of goals and attacking intent from both sides. Real Salt Lake's home advantage and San Jose's defensive challenges could be decisive, making this a must-watch MLS fixture.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 03:39 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Marie
Marczuk
Fernandez
Leroux
Ricketts
Solans
Lobzhanidze
De Fougerolles
Assist: Sanabria
De Fougerolles
Floriani
Piol
Yellow Card
Jasinski
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
| 9 |  Colorado Rapids | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 |  Real Salt Lake | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -3 | 36 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -5 | 34 |
Match Statistics
Real Salt Lake
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 3K. HenryD
- 6S. SpieringsM
- 8J. SanabriaM
- 9M. GuilavoguiM
- 11D. MarczukM
- 12S. LobzhanidzeM
- 22S. SolansF
- 26P. QuintonD
- 44L. De FougerollesD
- 92N. CaliskanM
Substitutes
- 2D. YedlinD
- 19A. PiolF
- 23Chadwick Zachary BoothM
- 25Colin GuskeM
- 29S. JunquaD
- 31M. StajduharG
- 34L. MoisaM
- 39A. HezarkhaniF
- 98A. KatránisD
San Jose Earthquakes
5-3-2Starting XI
- 1A. GunnG
- 2J. RickettsD
- 3P. MarieD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 7O. BoudaF
- 18R. RobertsD
- 19P. JuddF
- 20N. FernandezM
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 34Beau LerouxM
Substitutes
- 5D. MunieD
- 9L. JovanovićF
- 11T. WernerF
- 14R. VieiraM
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 21N. BuckM
- 23E. LöwenM
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 87Vítor CostaD
Real Salt Lake
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. De Fougerolles | D | 82 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Sanabria | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 5 | — |
| P. Quinton | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Spierings | M | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | — |
| M. Guilavogui | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0/1 |
| N. Caliskan | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | — |
| Chadwick Zachary Booth | M | 33 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| D. Yedlin | D | 8 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. Henry | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Rafael Cabral | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Hezarkhani | F | 16 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| D. Marczuk | M | 57 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Lobzhanidze | M | 74 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1/4 |
| S. Solans | F | 74 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Piol | F | 16 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Katránis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Stajduhar | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Moisa | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Colin Guske | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Junqua | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
San Jose Earthquakes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Gunn | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Romney | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Floriani | D | 83 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Roberts | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| E. Löwen | M | 44 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| P. Marie | D | 46 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| T. Werner | F | 31 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| Beau Leroux | M | 59 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| Jack Jasinski | D | 31 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vítor Costa | D | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| I. Harkes | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Judd | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| L. Jovanović | F | 7 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Bouda | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 4 | — | 2 | 3/3 |
| J. Ricketts | D | 68 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| N. Fernandez | M | 59 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| D. Munie | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Edwards | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Buck | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Vieira | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Real Salt Lake to win against San Jose Earthquakes.
- What score did Fipster predict for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Real Salt Lake 3–2 San Jose Earthquakes.
- What were the win probabilities for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster's model gave Real Salt Lake a 95% chance of winning, San Jose Earthquakes a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.