Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Real Madrid cruise past Sevilla with Mbappé brace
Mbappé’s penalty and early strike set the tone for a comfortable home win.
Real Madrid secured a commanding 4-1 victory over Sevilla in La Liga, powered by Kylian Mbappé’s early goal and a second-half penalty. A. Güler and Y. Diomande also found the net for the hosts, while Manu Bueno’s effort was a mere consolation for Sevilla. Fipster’s high-confidence prediction of a home win was spot on, though the actual scoreline saw Sevilla get on the board.
Outcome probability
Real Madrid face Sevilla in what promises to be a one-sided affair, with the home side expected to assert their dominance early and maintain control throughout the match.
Match factors
Mbappé's dominant home scoring form
Mbappé averages 1.5 goals per 90 minutes at home, a key edge against Sevilla's defense
Real Madrid's superior attacking output
Real Madrid averages 3.25 goals per home game vs Sevilla's 1.3 away goals, favoring a high-scoring home win
Sevilla's consistent scoring streak
Sevilla has scored in their last 5 matches, showing resilience despite predicted loss
Vinícius Júnior's creative influence
Vinícius leads assists with 3 this season and strong home assist rate, key to unlocking Sevilla defense
Full squad availability boosts Real Madrid
No confirmed injuries for Real Madrid ensures strongest lineup and attacking depth
The context
This La Liga regular season fixture sees Real Madrid sitting comfortably in 4th place with 18 points from 8 games, edging out Sevilla who are 5th with 13 points from 7 matches. Historically, Real Madrid have had the upper hand, winning 15 of their last 20 encounters against Sevilla, which adds an extra layer of confidence for Los Blancos heading into this game.
Key insights
Kylian Mbappé
Real Madrid
Mbappé’s exceptional home scoring rate of 1.5 goals per 90 minutes gives Real Madrid a clear attacking edge against Sevilla.
La Liga 26/277 goals in 8 games, 1.5 goals/90 at home
Vinícius Júnior
Real Madrid
Vinícius Júnior’s creativity, with 3 assists and a strong home assist rate, is key to unlocking Sevilla’s defence.
La Liga 26/273 assists in 8 games, 0.75 assists/90 at home
Jude Bellingham
Real Madrid
Bellingham’s goal and assist contributions from midfield add an important dimension to Real Madrid’s attack.
La Liga 26/273 goals in 8 games, 0.5 goals/90 at home
Analysis
Real Madrid's attacking firepower is in fine form, averaging over three goals per home game this season, while Sevilla have managed just over one goal per away match. Kylian Mbappé leads the charge for Real Madrid with 7 goals in 8 games, boasting an impressive 1.5 goals per 90 minutes at home. Vinícius Júnior's creativity, with 3 assists this season, will also be key in unlocking Sevilla's defence. Sevilla, despite their resilience and scoring in their last five matches, face a tough challenge against a Real Madrid side with a significantly better goal difference and squad depth.
Key facts
- 1.Real Madrid have won 15 of their last 20 matches against Sevilla.
- 2.Average goals per head-to-head match is 3.0, indicating a high-scoring encounter.
- 3.Real Madrid rank 4th with 18 points from 8 games; Sevilla are 5th with 13 points from 7 games.
- 4.Real Madrid have a superior goal difference of +10 compared to Sevilla this season.
- 5.Kylian Mbappé has scored 7 goals in 8 games, averaging 1.5 goals per 90 minutes at home.
- 6.Vinícius Júnior leads Real Madrid with 3 assists this season, crucial for creativity.
- 7.Sevilla have scored in their last 5 matches, showing consistent attacking threat.
Prediction
Expect Real Madrid to take control early, leading 2-0 at halftime before extending their advantage to a comprehensive 4-0 victory by full time. The home side's superior form, attacking depth, and historical dominance make this a straightforward prediction.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Real Madrid
Away — Sevilla
The verdict
In summary, Real Madrid look set to deliver a dominant performance against Sevilla, combining clinical finishing and creative playmaking. Sevilla will need to regroup quickly after this one, as the gulf in quality and form is likely to be evident on the pitch.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:26 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Félix Correia
Yellow Card
Huijsen
Yellow Card
Güler
Assist: Diomande
Mbappé
Assist: Bellingham
Vargas
Peque Fernández
Ure
Mbappé
Penalty
Juan Iglesias
Yellow Card
Endrick
Bellingham
Juan Iglesias
Cucurella
Yellow Card
Félix Correia
Güler
Manu Bueno
Assist: Stassin
Diomande
Assist: Tchouaméni
Valverde
Mbappé
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
Match Statistics
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1T. CourtoisG
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 5J. BellinghamM
- 8F. ValverdeD
- 9EndrickM
- 10Kylian MbappéF
- 14A. TchouaméniM
- 15A. GülerM
- 16I. KonatéD
- 17Marc CucurellaD
- 25Y. DiomandeM
Substitutes
- 3Éder MilitãoD
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 13A. LuninG
- 18Álvaro FernándezD
- 19Carlos EspíF
- 20Bernardo SilvaM
- 21Brahim DíazM
- 22A. RüdigerD
- 24D. DumfriesD
- 27Thiago PitarchM
- 31Javier NavarroG
Sevilla
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 2Juan IglesiasD
- 4Kike SalasD
- 5Andrés CastrínD
- 6L. AgouméM
- 9R. UreF
- 10Peque FernándezM
- 11R. VargasM
- 17G. SuazoD
- 20Félix CorreiaM
- 24Y. FofanaM
Substitutes
- 3Julio Díaz del RomoD
- 7Alfon GonzálezF
- 12A. SanganteD
- 13Fran GonzálezG
- 14Manu BuenoM
- 15Fábio CardosoD
- 19L. StassinF
- 21C. EjukeF
- 22José Ángel CarmonaD
- 27N. GuillenM
- 33Rafael RomeroG
Real Madrid
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Diomande | M | 90 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3/5 |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 85 | 8.2 | 2 | — | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4/5 |
| A. Güler | M | 78 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| J. Bellingham | M | 70 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/4 |
| A. Tchouaméni | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. Courtois | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Valverde | D | 85 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| I. Konaté | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 20 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Huijsen | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Éder Militão | D | 5 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Camavinga | M | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Carlos Espí | F | 5 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 21 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Endrick | M | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| A. Rüdiger | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Dumfries | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Lunin | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Fernández | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javier Navarro | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Pitarch | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Alexander-Arnold | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sevilla
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manu Bueno | M | 34 | 6.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| C. Ejuke | F | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 3/5 |
| L. Stassin | F | 34 | 6.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| G. Suazo | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| R. Ure | F | 56 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Alfon González | F | 17 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Y. Fofana | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/5 |
| Peque Fernández | M | 56 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| L. Agoumé | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Andrés Castrín | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kike Salas | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| R. Vargas | M | 46 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| José Ángel Carmona | D | 18 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Vlachodimos | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Félix Correia | M | 73 | 5.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Juan Iglesias | D | 72 | 4.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Fábio Cardoso | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Guillen | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran González | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Sangante | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julio Díaz del Romo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Romero | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Real Madrid to win against Sevilla.
- What score did Fipster predict for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Real Madrid 4–0 Sevilla.
- What were the win probabilities for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
- Fipster's model gave Real Madrid a 92% chance of winning, Sevilla a 4% chance, and a 4% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 92% confidence — a high-confidence call.