Real Madrid vs Alaves
Match recap
Real Madrid beat Alaves 2–1 in their La Liga fixture. Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior scored for Real Madrid; Toni Martínez replied for Alaves. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.62 for Real Madrid versus 1.76 for Alaves. Real Madrid sit 2nd in the La Liga table while Alaves are 14th.
Analysis
Real Madrid welcome Alaves to the Bernabéu in what looks set to be a straightforward affair. With a history of dominance and superior league standing, Madrid are favourites to secure all three points.
Real Madrid sit comfortably in 2nd place with 73 points, while Alaves languish near the relegation zone in 17th with 33 points. Historically, Madrid have won 16 of their 18 encounters with Alaves, underscoring a clear gulf in class.
Madrid's attacking prowess is supported by creative midfielders like A. Güler and F. Valverde, who boast high assist rates and passing accuracy. Alaves face defensive challenges due to suspensions and injuries, including the absence of top scorer L. Boyé, which further tips the scales in Madrid's favour.
Prediction
Expect Real Madrid to take an early lead and maintain control, finishing 2-0. The predicted three cards suggest a competitive but disciplined match, with Madrid's home advantage and form likely to secure the win.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Real Madrid missing key attackers Mbappé and Vinícius
Both top scorers are injured or suspended, forcing reliance on backups
Real Madrid's creative midfielders dominate passing and assists
Güler and Valverde provide high assist rates and passing accuracy, enabling attack
Alaves struggle defensively with key players missing
Multiple defenders suspended or injured, weakening defensive solidity
Real Madrid strong home form with average 2.3 goals scored
Consistent scoring at home supports predicted 2-0 win
Alaves disciplinary issues reduce attacking threat
Top scorer Boyé suspended, limiting Alaves goal threat
Key Takeaways
In summary, Real Madrid's superior squad depth, home form, and Alaves' defensive frailties make a 2-0 home victory the most probable outcome. Fans can anticipate a confident performance from the hosts.
- Real Madrid have won 16 of 18 head-to-head matches against Alaves.
- Head-to-head matches average 3.2 goals, favouring a multi-goal game.
- Real Madrid rank 2nd with 73 points; Alaves are 17th with 33 points.
- Real Madrid average 2.3 goals per home game this season.
- Alaves' top scorer L. Boyé is suspended, weakening their attack.
- Real Madrid's A. Güler leads with 9 assists this season.
- Alaves have multiple defensive suspensions impacting their lineup.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Real Madrid
Away — Alaves
No standout top scorers flagged for Alaves
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Mbappé
Assist: Güler
Tchouaméni
Yellow Card
Éder Militão
Vinícius Júnior
Assist: Valverde
Güler
Bellingham
Suárez
Guridi
Tchouaméni
Alexander-Arnold
Yusi
Boyé
Blanco
Toni Martínez
Assist: Guevara
Pérez
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | +59 | 94 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | +42 | 86 |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | +26 | 72 |
| 13 |  Sevilla | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | -14 | 43 |
| 14 |  Alaves | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | -12 | 43 |
| 15 |  Elche | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | -8 | 43 |
Match Statistics
Real Madrid
4-4-2Starting XI
- 3Éder MilitãoD
- 5J. BellinghamM
- 7Vinícius JúniorF
- 8F. ValverdeM
- 10Kylian MbappéF
- 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 13A. LuninG
- 14A. TchouaméniM
- 15A. GülerM
- 18Álvaro FernándezD
- 24D. HuijsenD
Substitutes
- 2Dani CarvajalD
- 4D. AlabaD
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 16Gonzalo GarcíaF
- 19Dani CeballosM
- 20Fran GarcíaD
- 21Brahim DíazM
- 22A. RüdigerD
- 23F. MendyD
- 30Franco MastantuonoF
- 43Sergio MestreG
- 45Thiago PitarchM
Alaves
5-3-2Starting XI
- 1SiveraG
- 3YusiD
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 7Angel PérezD
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 15L. BoyéF
- 17JonnyD
- 18Jon GuridiM
- 24Víctor ParadaD
Substitutes
- 5Jon PachecoD
- 6GuevaraM
- 9M. DíazF
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 13Raúl FernándezG
- 16V. KoskiD
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 20CalebeM
- 22I. DiabateF
- 27Egoitz MuñozD
- 31G. SwiderskiG
- 34Aitor MañasF
Real Madrid
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinicius Júnior | F | 90 | 9.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6/10 |
| Dean Huijsen | D | 90 | 8.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5/7 |
| Andriy Lunin | G | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arda Güler | M | 58 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Jude Bellingham | M | 58 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | D | 63 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Federico Valverde(C) | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Álvaro Carreras | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Éder Militão | D | 44 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | M | 63 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| David Alaba | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ferland Mendy | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran García | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dani Ceballos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo García | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergio Mestre | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Pitarch | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antonio Rudiger | D | 46 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eduardo Camavinga | M | 27 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Franco Mastantuono | F | 32 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Dani Carvajal | D | 27 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 32 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
Alaves
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nahuel Tenaglia | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antonio Blanco(C) | M | 75 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Victor Parada | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Jonny Otto | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Denis Suarez | M | 58 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim | D | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Toni Martínez | F | 90 | 6.3 | 1 | — | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Jon Guridi | M | 58 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ángel Pérez | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 0/4 |
| Lucas Boyé | F | 66 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Antonio Sivera | G | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ville Koski | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Egoitz Muñoz | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Grégoire Swiderski | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aitor Mañas | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jon Pacheco | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mariano Diaz | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raúl Fernández | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 32 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Ander Guevara | M | 15 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Calebe Gonçalves | M | 24 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Carles Aleñá | M | 32 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Ibrahim Diabaté | F | 24 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |