RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
Match recap
RB Leipzig beat PSV Eindhoven 1–0 in their UEFA Champions League fixture. Gruda scored for RB Leipzig; Perišić replied for PSV Eindhoven. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.19 for RB Leipzig versus 1.36 for PSV Eindhoven. RB Leipzig sit 14th in the UEFA Champions League table while PSV Eindhoven are 23rd.
Outcome probability
RB Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven face off in a group stage match that promises a tight contest. Both teams come into this fixture without key absences, setting the stage for a competitive encounter.
Match factors
No key player absences for either team
Both RB Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven have no confirmed injuries or doubtful players, ensuring full-strength squads.
Balanced attacking potential but no standout scorers
Neither team has top scorers listed, indicating no clear individual goal threat; scoring likely to be distributed among multiple players.
Limited recent form data reduces prediction certainty
Insufficient match history and missing form data for both teams limit detailed player form analysis, impacting prediction depth.
The context
This group stage fixture sees RB Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven looking to establish early dominance. With no standout scorers listed for either side, the match could hinge on collective team efforts rather than individual brilliance.
Key facts
- 1.RB Leipzig have the highest probability of winning this match at 39.08%.
- 2.The most probable fulltime scoreline is 2-1 in favour of RB Leipzig.
- 3.Halftime score of 1-0 is the most likely scenario, consistent with the final score prediction.
- 4.Both teams have no confirmed injuries or doubtful players, ensuring full-strength squads.
- 5.Neither side has a standout individual goal scorer, suggesting goals will be shared among players.
- 6.The predicted total number of cards in the match is three, indicating a moderately physical game.
- 7.Limited recent form data reduces the depth of player form analysis for both teams.
Analysis
The probabilities favour a home win for RB Leipzig, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1. A halftime lead of 1-0 aligns well with this prediction, suggesting Leipzig will start strongly and manage to hold off PSV's challenge. Both teams have balanced attacking potential, but no clear individual goal threats, indicating goals may come from various players rather than a single star.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — RB Leipzig
Away — PSV Eindhoven
Prediction
Expect RB Leipzig to take the lead by halftime and maintain their advantage to clinch a 2-1 victory. The match is likely to feature a moderate number of cards, around three, reflecting a competitive but controlled game.
The verdict
In summary, RB Leipzig's slight edge and home advantage should see them through to a narrow win against PSV Eindhoven. Fans can anticipate a lively match with goals and a fair share of competitive moments.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
No recent fixture data
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
PSV Eindhoven has no record in this competition yet, so there is nothing to compare these totals against.
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Penalty confirmed
Perišić
Missed Penalty
Dest
Yellow Card
Rômulo
Gruda
Gruda
Kostić
Geertruida
Original decision changed
Nusa
Yellow Card
van Bommel
Mijnans
Obispo
Yellow Card
Banzuzi
Baku
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 |  Inter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |  RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Lens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 |  FC Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 |  PSV Eindhoven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 |  Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Match Statistics
RB Leipzig
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4W. OrbánD
- 6E. BanzuziM
- 7A. NusaM
- 10B. GrudaM
- 17R. BakuD
- 21N. El AynaouiM
- 22D. RaumD
- 23C. LukebaD
- 26M. VandevoordtG
- 28C. NkunkuM
- 40RômuloF
Substitutes
- 1Ø. NylandG
- 2A. KonéD
- 3M. EstèveD
- 11J. BakayokoF
- 13N. SeiwaldM
- 16L. KlostermannD
- 20R. ReitzM
- 27T. GomisF
- 30A. MaksimoviÄM
- 35Max FinkgräfeD
- 39B. HenrichsD
PSV Eindhoven
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2L. GeertruidaD
- 4A. ObispoD
- 5I. PerišićM
- 7R. van BommelM
- 8S. DestD
- 17Mauro JúniorM
- 18F. KostićD
- 20G. TilM
- 21S. MijnansF
- 24K. SanoM
- 32M. KovářG
Substitutes
- 1N. OlijG
- 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
- 6R. FlamingoD
- 19E. BajraktarevicF
- 23M. HansenF
- 27D. ManF
- 31N. FernandezM
- 35A. SantosM
- 37A. BouhamdiF
- 42S. CornecionM
- 51T. SmolenaarsG
RB Leipzig
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Vandevoordt | G | 90 | 8.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| B. Gruda | M | 76 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5/7 |
| R. Baku | D | 86 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| W. Orbán | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| D. Raum | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| C. Lukeba | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. El Aynaoui | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| L. Klostermann | D | 4 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Reitz | M | 14 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Seiwald | M | 4 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Gomis | F | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| E. Banzuzi | M | 86 | 6.7 | — | — | 4 | — | 1 | — |
| A. Nusa | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/4 |
| C. Nkunku | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/4 |
| Rômulo | F | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Ø. Nyland | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Estève | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bakayoko | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Finkgräfe | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. MaksimoviÄ | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Koné | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Henrichs | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
PSV Eindhoven
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kovář | G | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Geertruida | D | 77 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Kostić | D | 77 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| R. Flamingo | D | 13 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. van Bommel | M | 84 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| I. Perišić | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | — |
| A. Obispo | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Mauro Júnior | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| K. Sano | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/4 |
| A. Santos | M | 6 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Yarek Gasiorowski | D | 13 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Dest | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| G. Til | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Mijnans | F | 84 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| M. Hansen | F | 6 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bouhamdi | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Olij | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Man | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Bajraktarevic | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Smolenaars | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Fernandez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Cornecion | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?
- Fipster's AI model predicted RB Leipzig to win against PSV Eindhoven.
- What score did Fipster predict for RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?
- Fipster predicted a final score of RB Leipzig 2–1 PSV Eindhoven.
- What were the win probabilities for RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?
- Fipster's model gave RB Leipzig a 85% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.