RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli
Match recap
RB Leipzig beat FC St. Pauli 2–1 in their Bundesliga fixture. Schlager and Orbán scored for RB Leipzig; Ceesay replied for FC St. Pauli. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.37 for RB Leipzig versus 0.79 for FC St. Pauli. RB Leipzig sit 3rd in the Bundesliga table while FC St. Pauli are 18th.
Analysis
RB Leipzig host FC St. Pauli in what promises to be a one-sided affair, with Leipzig's superior form and firepower expected to shine through.
Leipzig currently sit 3rd in the league with 65 points and a healthy goal difference, while FC St. Pauli have struggled to match their consistency. Previous encounters have been competitive, but Leipzig hold a slight edge.
Leipzig's attacking fullbacks Raum and Baku create overloads, exploiting St. Pauli's defensive gaps. Diomande's prolific home scoring form and Baumgartner's dual threat in goals and assists bolster Leipzig's offensive threat. Defensively, Orbán provides solidity, making a clean sheet likely.
Prediction
We confidently predict a 3-0 home win for RB Leipzig, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The team’s attacking depth and defensive resilience make this scoreline the most probable outcome.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
RB Leipzig's attacking fullbacks create overloads
Raum and Baku provide width and quality crosses exploiting St. Pauli's defensive gaps
Diomande's prolific scoring form at home
Diomande averages 1.2 goals/90 at home, well above league average for forwards
Baumgartner's dual threat in goals and assists
Recent matches show Baumgartner scoring and assisting regularly, boosting Leipzig's attack
Leipzig's defense led by Orbán is solid vs St. Pauli
Orbán's defensive ratings and occasional goals have helped Leipzig contain St. Pauli previously
No significant injuries for RB Leipzig
Full squad availability allows Leipzig to field strongest lineup, enhancing predicted dominance
Key Takeaways
With full squad availability and key players in fine form, RB Leipzig are set to deliver a commanding performance and secure all three points against FC St. Pauli.
- RB Leipzig are 3rd in the league with 65 points from 33 games (W20 D5 L8).
- RB Leipzig have a goal difference of +22, significantly better than FC St. Pauli.
- In 9 head-to-head meetings, Leipzig have won 4, St. Pauli 3, with 2 draws.
- RB Leipzig’s expected goals (1.37) exceed FC St. Pauli’s (0.79), favouring a home win.
- Y. Diomande averages 1.2 goals per 90 minutes at home, highlighting his scoring threat.
- C. Baumgartner leads Leipzig’s assists with 7 in the last 10 games, boosting their attack.
- RB Leipzig’s fullbacks Raum and Baku provide quality crosses and offensive width.
- Defender W. Orbán offers defensive stability and occasional goals for Leipzig.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — RB Leipzig
Away — FC St. Pauli
No standout top scorers flagged for FC St. Pauli
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Lukeba
Yellow Card
Schlager
Assist: Baumgartner
Baumgartner
Yellow Card
Orbán
Assist: Raum
Ritzka
Oppie
Ouédraogo
Raum
Hountondji
Gruda
Ceesay
Assist: Irvine
Metcalfe
Smith
Baku
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | +86 | 89 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | +36 | 73 |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | +19 | 65 |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | +22 | 62 |
| 17 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -31 | 26 |
| 18 |  FC St. Pauli | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -31 | 26 |
Match Statistics
RB Leipzig
4-3-3Starting XI
- 4Vilmos Tamás OrbánD
- 10Brajan GrudaF
- 14Christoph BaumgartnerM
- 17Bote Ridle Nzuzi BakuD
- 20Forzan Assan OuédraogoM
- 22David RaumD
- 23Castello Junior LukebaD
- 24Xaver SchlagerM
- 26Maarten VandevoordtG
- 40RômuloF
- 49Yan DiomandeF
Substitutes
- 1Péter GulácsiG
- 5El Chadaille BitshiabuD
- 7Antonio Eromonsele Nordby NusaM
- 9Saint-Cyr Johan BakayokoF
- 11Conrad Harder Weibel SchandorfF
- 13Nicolas SeiwaldM
- 16Lukas Manuel KlostermannD
- 35Max FinkgräfeD
- 39Benjamin Paa Kwesi HenrichsD
FC St. Pauli
3-5-2Starting XI
- 7Jackson Alexander IrvineM
- 8Eric Anders SmithD
- 11Arkadiusz PyrkaM
- 15Tomoya AndoD
- 16Joel Chima FujitaM
- 19Martijn KaarsF
- 21Lars RitzkaD
- 22Nikola VasiljG
- 23Louis OppieM
- 24Connor Isaac MetcalfeM
- 27Andréas HountondjiF
Substitutes
- 1Ben Alexander VollG
- 5Hauke Finn WahlD
- 9Abdoulie CeesayF
- 10Danel SinaniF
- 14Finley StevensD
- 18Taichi HaraF
- 20Mathias Knutsen RasmussenM
RB Leipzig
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willi Orbán | D | 90 | 8.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Xaver Schlager | M | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| David Raum(C) | D | 69 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Brajan Gruda | F | 79 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 3/7 |
| Castello Lukeba | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Yan Diomande | F | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 6/9 |
| Assan Ouédraogo | M | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Christoph Baumgartner | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Ridle Baku | D | 89 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maarten Vandevoordt | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rômulo | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Johan Bakayoko | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Henrichs | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| El Chadaille Bitshiabu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Conrad Harder | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Péter Gulácsi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lukas Klostermann | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antonio Nusa | M | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Nicolas Seiwald | M | 21 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Finkgräfe | D | 21 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
FC St. Pauli
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Chima Fujita | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Tomoya Ando | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Nikola Vasilj | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jackson Irvine(C) | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Louis Oppie | M | 64 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Andreas Hountondji | F | 72 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Lars Ritzka | D | 64 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eric Smith | D | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Connor Metcalfe | M | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Martijn Kaars | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Danel Sinani | F | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ben Voll | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Taichi Hara | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mathias Rasmussen | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdoulie Ceesay | F | 18 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Hauke Wahl | D | 26 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin Stevens | D | 26 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |