Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
Elche cruise to commanding win at Rayo
Two early penalties set the tone for Elche's comfortable 3-0 victory.
Elche stunned the home side with two first-half penalties from F. Redondo and Fer Niño, putting Rayo Vallecano on the back foot early. Despite a missed penalty by P. Ciss for Rayo, Germán Valera sealed the win with a second-half goal, completing a convincing 3-0 triumph. This result defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a Rayo home win, marking a notable upset in La Liga.
Outcome probability
Rayo Vallecano and Elche face off in the 10th round of the regular season, with both sides eager to climb the league table. Rayo Vallecano currently sit 13th with 8 points from 7 games, while Elche are 17th with 6 points from 8 matches. This encounter promises a competitive battle as both teams look to improve their standings.
Match factors
Elche's Fer Niño is in strong scoring form
Fer Niño has scored 5 goals in 9 games, including 3 in last 5, making him Elche's main scoring threat.
Rayo Vallecano's Unai López is key creative force
Unai López leads Rayo with 3 assists and high passing volume, crucial for creating chances.
Rayo Vallecano's defense anchored by F. Lejeune
Lejeune's strong defensive stats and passing help stabilize Rayo's backline against Elche's attackers.
Rayo Vallecano missing key defenders including A. Rațiu
Absence of Rațiu and Luiz Felipe weakens Rayo's defense, potentially exposing them to Elche's attack.
The context
Rayo Vallecano have shown a mixed bag of results this season, managing two wins, two draws, and three losses so far. Elche, meanwhile, have struggled slightly more with just one win, three draws, and four defeats. The home side's slightly better form and points tally give them a modest edge heading into this fixture.
Key insights
Fer Niño
Elche
Fer Niño has scored 5 goals in 9 games, including 3 in the last 5, making him Elche's main scoring threat.
La Liga 26/275 goals in 9 appearances, 0.56 goals/game
Unai López
Rayo Vallecano
Unai López leads Rayo with 3 assists and high passing volume, crucial for creating chances.
La Liga 26/273 assists in 8 appearances, 45.9 avg passes/game
Analysis
The prediction leans towards a home win with a 2-1 final score, supported by the highest probability among possible outcomes. Rayo Vallecano are expected to take a 1-0 lead by halftime, reflecting their ability to start strong. Key players like Sergio Camello, who has been a consistent scorer recently, and creative midfielder Unai López, who leads the team in assists, will be crucial. Elche's main threat comes from Fer Niño, their top scorer with 5 goals this season, including 3 in the last 5 games. Defensively, Rayo's F. Lejeune provides stability, although the absence of key defenders like A. Rațiu could expose them to Elche's attacks.
Key facts
- 1.Rayo Vallecano are 13th in the league with 8 points from 7 games (W2 D2 L3).
- 2.Elche are 17th with 6 points from 8 games (W1 D3 L4).
- 3.Rayo Vallecano's Sergio Camello has been a consistent scorer recently.
- 4.Elche's Fer Niño leads their scoring with 5 goals in 9 games.
- 5.Unai López leads Rayo Vallecano with 3 assists this season.
- 6.F. Lejeune is a key defensive figure for Rayo Vallecano.
- 7.Rayo Vallecano are missing key defenders including A. Rațiu.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
We anticipate Rayo Vallecano to secure a 2-1 victory over Elche. The home side should take a 1-0 lead into halftime and maintain their advantage despite Elche's efforts to equalise. Expect a competitive match with around four cards shown, reflecting the intensity of the contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Rayo Vallecano
Away — Elche
The verdict
In summary, Rayo Vallecano's slightly better form and home advantage should see them through to a narrow win. Elche will pose challenges, especially through Fer Niño, but the home side's attacking and defensive strengths are likely to prevail in this closely fought encounter.
Prediction generated 19 Oct 2026, 20:55 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Morcillo
Yellow Card
Redondo
Penalty
Villar
Yellow Card
Redondo
Yellow Card
Penalty confirmed
Ciss
Yellow Card
Fer Niño
Penalty
Ciss
Missed Penalty
Camello
de Frutos
Villar
Pedrosa
Yellow Card
Díaz
Pedrosa
Fer Niño
Valera
Assist: Buonanotte
Lemar
Cepeda
Balliu
García
Yellow Card
Redondo
Match Statistics
Rayo Vallecano
4-3-3Starting XI
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 6P. CissM
- 8Unai LópezM
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 15Mujaid SadickD
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 18Álvaro GarcíaF
- 19Jorge de FrutosF
- 20I. BalliuD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 25E. AuderoG
Substitutes
- 3M. KumbullaD
- 7Isi PalazónM
- 9AlemãoF
- 14G. TsitaishviliF
- 21Fran PérezF
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 23Óscar ValentínM
- 30Adrián MolinaG
- 33J. VertrouwdD
- 36G. BouareM
- 37Rayane BelidF
Elche
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1M. DituroG
- 2Buba SangaréD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 5F. RedondoD
- 11Germán ValeraF
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 14Fer NiñoF
- 18T. LemarM
- 21L. CepedaF
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 47J. MorcilloM
Substitutes
- 6BigasD
- 9E. PonceF
- 10F. BuonanotteM
- 13Alejandro IturbeG
- 15K. LomónacoD
- 16Martim NetoM
- 17JosanM
- 19G. DianganaF
- 20Tete MorenteF
- 22Rubén SánchezD
- 24A. OsorioF
- 26Matia Barzic GutiérrezD
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unai López | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Mujaid Sadick | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| E. Audero | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Bouare | M | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| F. Lejeune | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| G. Tsitaishvili | F | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 2/5 |
| I. Balliu | D | 76 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| P. Ciss | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Alemão | F | 44 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergio Camello | F | 46 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Adrià Pedrosa | D | 60 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| J. Vertrouwd | D | 30 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Isi Palazón | M | 30 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge de Frutos | F | 46 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Pedro Díaz | M | 60 | 5.7 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Álvaro García | F | 90 | 5.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/4 |
| Pelayo Fernández | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran Pérez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Óscar Valentín | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kumbulla | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrián Molina | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayane Belid | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Elche
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Dituro | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Germán Valera | F | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| R. Revivo | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Buba Sangaré | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Morcillo | M | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| F. Redondo | D | 83 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Víctor Chust | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Lemar | M | 72 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| F. Buonanotte | M | 44 | 7.1 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Bigas | D | 7 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fer Niño | F | 61 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| Martim Neto | M | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Cepeda | F | 72 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1/4 |
| Tete Morente | F | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Gonzalo Villar | M | 46 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| A. Osorio | F | 29 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rubén Sánchez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Lomónaco | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Iturbe | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matia Barzic Gutiérrez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josan | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Diangana | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Ponce | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Rayo Vallecano to win against Elche.
- What score did Fipster predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Elche.
- What were the win probabilities for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
- Fipster's model gave Rayo Vallecano a 56% chance of winning, Elche a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 56% confidence — a medium-confidence call.