Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves
Alaves snatch draw at Rayo Vallecano
Sergio Camello's early second-half strike cancelled out by M. Díaz's late reply.
Rayo Vallecano looked set for victory after Sergio Camello put them ahead just after the break, but Alaves fought back with M. Díaz's goal in the 84th minute to secure a 1-1 draw. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 2-1 home win, proving the visitors more resilient than expected.
Outcome probability
The new La Liga season kicks off with an intriguing fixture between Rayo Vallecano and Alaves. Both teams are eager to start on a positive note after their summer preparations, with Rayo Vallecano looking to leverage their home advantage and Alaves aiming to integrate new signing Miguel Rodríguez into their squad.
Key facts
- 1.Rayo Vallecano finished last season ranked 8th with 50 points from 38 games.
- 2.Alaves ended last season 14th with 43 points from 38 games.
- 3.Rayo Vallecano have a better goal difference by 9 goals compared to Alaves.
- 4.Alaves signed Miguel Rodríguez during the summer transfer window.
- 5.Alaves lost Carlos Vicente in the same transfer window.
- 6.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 3, indicating moderate discipline.
- 7.The most probable full-time score is 2-1 in favour of Rayo Vallecano.
The context
This match marks the beginning of the 2026-27 campaign, with neither side having played a league game yet. Rayo Vallecano finished last season comfortably mid-table, while Alaves battled to maintain their status. The summer transfer window saw Alaves bring in Miguel Rodríguez, hoping to bolster their attacking options, while losing Carlos Vicente. Rayo Vallecano have made no notable changes, relying on continuity to start strong.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Rayo Vallecano
Away — Alaves
Analysis
Rayo Vallecano hold a clear edge in goal difference from last season, suggesting a more potent attack or tighter defence. Their league position was also superior, hinting at a more consistent performance level. Alaves, despite their new signing, face an uphill task to match the home side's quality. The predicted 2-1 scoreline reflects a competitive match but with Rayo Vallecano expected to edge it, supported by the highest aggregate probability for a home win. The forecast of three total cards suggests a moderately disciplined encounter.
Prediction
We anticipate Rayo Vallecano to clinch a 2-1 victory in this season opener. Their home advantage and stronger overall metrics make them the favourites to start the campaign with three points. Alaves will put up a fight, but the home side's edge should prove decisive.
The verdict
As the season gets underway, Rayo Vallecano look poised to make a confident start against Alaves. The visitors' summer signing adds some intrigue, but the home side's stability and superior goal difference make them the likely winners. Expect a lively match with a few cards and a narrow home victory.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Isi Palazón
Goal Disallowed - handball
Tenaglia
Yellow Card
Camello
Assist: de Frutos
Fernández
Fran Pérez
Batalla
Unknown
Boyé
Jonny
Camello
Yellow Card
Pérez
Koski
Díaz
Valentini
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 21 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 |  Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 |  Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 |  Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
Match Statistics
Rayo Vallecano
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 2A. RațiuD
- 6P. CissM
- 7Isi PalazónM
- 8Unai LópezM
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 13A. BatallaG
- 19Jorge de FrutosM
- 21Fran PérezM
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 33J. VertrouwdD
Substitutes
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 9AlemãoF
- 11R. NtekaM
- 14G. TsitaishviliF
- 18Álvaro GarcíaM
- 20I. BalliuD
- 23Óscar ValentínM
- 26Marco de las SíasD
Alaves
5-3-2Starting XI
- 1SiveraG
- 7Angel PérezD
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 15L. BoyéF
- 16V. KoskiD
- 17JonnyD
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 21A. RebbachD
Substitutes
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 3YusiD
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 6GuevaraM
- 9M. DíazF
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 13A. GiménezG
- 20Aitor MañasF
- 22Miguel RodríguezF
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 27X. OlaizD
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Camello | F | 92 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 0/2 |
| Unai López | M | 92 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2/4 |
| Augusto Batalla | G | 60 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Florian Lejeune | D | 92 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge de Frutos | M | 92 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 3/6 |
| Pathé Ismaël Ciss | M | 92 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Isi Palazón(C) | M | 17 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Fran Pérez | M | 55 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Andrei Rațiu | D | 92 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jozhua Vertrouwd | D | 92 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pelayo Fernández | D | 55 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Marco de las Sias | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alemão | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Díaz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iván Balliu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Óscar Valentín | M | 37 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Randy Nteka | M | 75 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro García | M | 37 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Dani Cárdenas | G | 32 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Alaves
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 92 | 7.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | D | 92 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Ángel Pérez | D | 80 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 3/3 |
| Jonny Otto | D | 70 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Antonio Sivera | G | 92 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Boyé | F | 62 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Antonio Blanco(C) | M | 92 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Abderrahman Rebbach | D | 92 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 4/6 |
| Ville Koski | D | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Toni Martínez | F | 92 | 6.2 | — | — | 4 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Aitor Mañas | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Rodríguez | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Benavídez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ander Guevara | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Novoa | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrián Rodríguez | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Xanet Olaiz | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mariano Díaz | F | 30 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Denis Suárez | M | 30 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Youssef Enriquez | D | 22 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nicolás Valentini | D | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carles Aleñá | M | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Rayo Vallecano to win against Alaves.
- What score did Fipster predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Alaves.
- What were the win probabilities for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
- Fipster's model gave Rayo Vallecano a 87% chance of winning, Alaves a 6% chance, and a 7% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 87% confidence — a high-confidence call.