QPR vs Derby
QPR cruise to commanding win over Derby
Four goals, including a penalty and a brace, seal a dominant home victory.
QPR put on a clinical display to dispatch Derby 4-1 in the Championship, with A. Lloyd opening the scoring early before N. Madsen converted a penalty and H. Vale added another just before half-time. P. Smyth's second-half strike put the result beyond doubt, while L. Salvesen netted a consolation for Derby deep into stoppage time. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the margin of victory was more emphatic than expected.
Outcome probability
As the regular season unfolds, QPR and Derby prepare to face off in what promises to be a competitive fixture. With QPR sitting comfortably in the top five and Derby struggling near the bottom, the stage is set for an intriguing battle.
Match factors
QPR's midfield creativity vs Derby's defensive gaps
QPR's Ilias Chair and Rumarn Burrell offer strong attacking creativity against Derby's struggling defense missing key players
QPR's superior goal scoring form
QPR averages 1.22 goals per game with multiple players scoring regularly, while Derby struggles with 0.9 goals and many injuries
QPR's positive scoring streak
QPR has scored in 3 of last 5 matches and maintains a positive scoring streak at home, supporting predicted 2-1 win
Derby's defensive injury crisis
Derby missing key defender Charlie Taylor (out) weakens their backline against QPR's attacking midfielders
The context
QPR currently rank 5th in the league with 14 points from 9 games, showcasing solid form and a positive goal difference of 10. Derby, on the other hand, find themselves 22nd with just 5 points from 8 games, highlighting their struggles this season. This contrast in league standings sets the tone for the upcoming match.
Key insights
Ilias Chair
QPR
Ilias Chair is a key creative hub with 2 goals and 1 assist this season, showing strong impact in home matches.
Championship 26/272 goals and 1 assist in 5 appearances this season
Rumarn Burrell
QPR
Rumarn Burrell provides consistent goal scoring and assists, making him an important attacking outlet for QPR.
Championship 26/272 goals and 1 assist in 8 appearances this season
Samuel Szmodics
Derby
Samuel Szmodics is Derby's leading scorer with 2 goals, but the team struggles offensively overall.
Championship 26/272 goals in 7 appearances this season
- C
Charlie Taylor
Derby
Derby's defensive injury crisis includes the absence of Charlie Taylor, weakening their backline against QPR's attack.
Championship 26/27Confirmed out due to injury
Analysis
QPR's midfield creativity, led by Ilias Chair and Rumarn Burrell, poses a significant threat to Derby's defence, which is weakened by injuries including the absence of key defender Charlie Taylor. QPR's scoring form is superior, averaging 1.22 goals per game compared to Derby's 0.9, and they have maintained a positive scoring streak at home. The predicted halftime score of 1-0 aligns with QPR's ability to start strong, while Derby's defensive vulnerabilities suggest they may concede twice by fulltime. The match is also expected to be competitive in terms of discipline, with around four cards likely to be shown.
Key facts
- 1.QPR rank 5th with 14 points from 9 games (W3 D5 L1).
- 2.Derby rank 22nd with 5 points from 8 games (W1 D2 L5).
- 3.QPR have a goal difference of +10, significantly better than Derby.
- 4.QPR average 1.22 goals per game; Derby average 0.9 goals per game.
- 5.Ilias Chair leads QPR with 2 goals and 1 assist this season.
- 6.Derby are missing key defender Charlie Taylor due to injury.
- 7.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
The forecast sees QPR taking the lead by halftime at 1-0 and ultimately securing a 2-1 victory. Key players such as Ilias Chair, who has scored twice this season and contributed an assist, are expected to influence the outcome. Derby's efforts may yield a goal, but QPR's home advantage and form should see them through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — QPR
Away — Derby
The verdict
In summary, QPR's stronger league position, attacking prowess, and Derby's defensive challenges point towards a home win. While Derby will fight hard, the balance of form and player quality suggests a 2-1 result in favour of QPR.
Prediction generated 10 Oct 2026, 15:56 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Langås
Lloyd
Assist: Kemper
Madsen
Penalty
Ozoh
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Szmodics
Yellow Card
Ozoh
Vale
Fuseini
Meister
Yellow Card
Vale
Yellow Card
Kamara
Yellow Card
Rayan Jawad Kolli
Vale
Lloyd
Morris
Smyth
Assist: Madsen
Szmodics
Kemper
Smyth
Salvesen
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 25 |
| 8 |  Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +12 | 20 |
| 9 |  QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -17 | 5 |
Match Statistics
QPR
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1P. CharlesG
- 2K. AdamsonD
- 3J. DunneD
- 5R. EdwardsD
- 11P. SmythM
- 12B. KemperD
- 15A. LloydM
- 18G. KamaraM
- 20H. ValeM
- 24N. MadsenM
- 26Rayan Jawad KolliF
Substitutes
- 4L. MorrisonD
- 6J. Clarke-SalterD
- 13C. WardG
- 17K. PokuM
- 22R. KoneF
- 23I. AlemayehuM
- 27A. MbengueD
- 40J. VaraneM
Derby
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4D. OzohM
- 6S. LangåsD
- 8B. ClarkM
- 9C. MorrisF
- 11S. SzmodicsM
- 16M. FuseiniM
- 20A. MowattM
- 23J. WardD
- 26R. HedgesD
- 28D. SandersonD
- 31J. VickersG
Substitutes
- 10R. BrewsterF
- 12R. O'DonnellG
- 13F. BilbijaM
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 19H. MeisterF
- 24R. NyambeD
- 27L. TravisM
- 29O. FrauloM
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
QPR
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lloyd | M | 62 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/3 |
| P. Smyth | M | 77 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| R. Edwards | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| H. Vale | M | 62 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Dunne | D | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| N. Madsen | M | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| P. Charles | G | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Kemper | D | 72 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| K. Adamson | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Mbengue | D | 18 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Varane | M | 28 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Kamara | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| K. Poku | M | 28 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| R. Kone | F | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayan Jawad Kolli | F | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| L. Morrison | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Alemayehu | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Ward | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Clarke-Salter | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Derby
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Salvesen | F | 27 | 6.9 | — | — | 4 | — | 1 | — |
| H. Meister | F | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| C. Morris | F | 63 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| R. Nyambe | D | 78 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Sanderson | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Mowatt | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Ward | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| R. Hedges | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| M. Fuseini | M | 46 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| B. Clark | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 5 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| F. Bilbija | M | 20 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| L. Travis | M | 44 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Szmodics | M | 70 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Ozoh | M | 46 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Vickers | G | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Langås | D | 12 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. O'Donnell | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Brewster | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Fraulo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Blackett-Taylor | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win QPR vs Derby?
- Fipster's AI model predicted QPR to win against Derby.
- What score did Fipster predict for QPR vs Derby?
- Fipster predicted a final score of QPR 2–1 Derby.
- What were the win probabilities for QPR vs Derby?
- Fipster's model gave QPR a 65% chance of winning, Derby a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 65% confidence — a medium-confidence call.