Qarabag vs Twente
Twente storm Qarabag in extra time
A late flurry of goals sees Twente overturn the odds with a 4-1 victory after extra time.
Qarabag took the lead through Kady in the 59th minute, but Twente responded with a relentless surge, scoring three times after the 79th minute, including goals from M. Pjaca, M. Bruns, and W. Weghorst. Y. Taha sealed the emphatic 4-1 win deep into extra time at 114 minutes. This result defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a Qarabag home win, delivering a surprising and commanding away triumph.
Outcome probability
The playoff round clash between Qarabag and Twente promises a tight contest, with both sides eager to progress. Qarabag's defensive resilience at home and Twente's attacking firepower set the stage for an intriguing encounter.
Match factors
Twente's attacking firepower advantage
Twente averages 4.5 goals per game vs Qarabag's 1, led by Pjaca's 3 goals in 2 games
Set-piece threat from Twente defenders
Bruns and Pröpper contribute goals from defense, adding scoring options on set plays
S. Ørjasæter's creative form
Ørjasæter has 3 assists in 1 game, showing strong recent creativity and chance creation
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so no impact from missing key players
Qarabag's defensive resilience at home
Qarabag concedes 0 goals at home on average, could limit Twente's scoring chances
The context
In this competition, Qarabag have played three matches, winning two and losing one, scoring three goals and conceding just one. Their most recent knockout result was a 1-0 away win against Twente. Twente, meanwhile, have one win, one draw, and one loss in three matches, with nine goals scored and four conceded. Their latest knockout match was a 0-1 home defeat to Qarabag. Head-to-head, Qarabag have a slight edge with one win and two draws in three meetings.
Key insights
M. Pjaca
Twente
Top scorer with 3 goals in 2 games, showing strong away scoring form against Qarabag.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/273 goals in 2 appearances, 1.5 avg goals/game
M. Bruns
Twente
A rare scoring defender with 2 goals in 2 games, posing a set-piece threat.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/272 goals in 2 appearances, 1.0 avg goals/game
S. Ørjasæter
Twente
Creative force with 3 assists in 1 game, key to Twente's chance creation.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/273 assists in 1 appearance, 3.0 avg assists/game
Analysis
Qarabag's home defensive record is impressive, conceding no goals on average at home, which could frustrate Twente's potent attack led by M. Pjaca, who has netted three goals in two games. Twente's defenders M. Bruns and R. Pröpper also pose a threat on set pieces, adding layers to their offensive options. Qarabag's ability to keep Twente at bay while capitalising on chances is key. The predicted 2-1 scoreline reflects a closely fought match, with Qarabag narrowly prevailing.
Key facts
- 1.Qarabag have won 2 of 3 matches in this competition, scoring 3 and conceding 1.
- 2.Twente have scored 9 goals in 3 matches but conceded 4, showing attacking strength but defensive vulnerability.
- 3.In their last knockout meeting, Qarabag won 1-0 away at Twente.
- 4.Head-to-head, Qarabag have 1 win and 2 draws against Twente in 3 matches.
- 5.Qarabag concede 0 goals on average at home in this competition.
- 6.M. Pjaca is Twente's top scorer with 3 goals in 2 games.
- 7.Twente defenders M. Bruns and R. Pröpper contribute goals from set pieces.
- 8.S. Ørjasæter leads Twente's assists with 3 in 1 game, showing creative form.
Prediction
The forecast is a 2-1 victory for Qarabag, reflecting their home advantage and defensive solidity. While Twente's attacking prowess cannot be underestimated, Qarabag's resilience and tactical discipline should see them edge this playoff round encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Qarabag
No standout top scorers flagged for Qarabag
Away — Twente
The verdict
Expect a competitive match with Qarabag just shading it 2-1. Both teams have strengths, but Qarabag's home form and defensive grit are likely to be decisive. Twente will push hard, but the home side should hold firm to progress.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Zerrouki
Yellow Card
Bruno Langa
Yellow Card
Lobato
Yellow Card
Kady
Assist: Qurbanlı
Qurbanlı
Pröpper
Lobato
Ørjasæter
Bruno Langa
Pjaca
Assist: Weghorst
Kady
Bruns
Assist: Pjaca
Yellow Card
Nijstad
Janković
Yellow Card
Rots
Mouaddib
Yellow Card
Weghorst
Assist: Weidmann
Weidmann
Janković
Red Card
Janković
Yellow Card
Weghorst
Yellow Card
Weghorst
Mouaddib
Taha
Hüseynov
Taha
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Qarabag
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2Matheus SilvaD
- 4B. VárkonyiD
- 5Bruno LangaD
- 7J. MouaddibM
- 8M. JankovićM
- 20KadyM
- 21O. KashchukM
- 22M. QurbanlıF
- 23M. ZlomislićG
- 55B. HüseynovD
- 88Samuel LobatoM
Substitutes
- 1Ş. MəhəmmədəliyevG
- 9Joni MontielM
- 13B. MustafazadəD
- 18Dani BoltD
- 25Č. MakreckisM
- 32H. JabrayilzadeD
- 35Pedro BicalhoM
- 49A. BashirovM
- 99M. KochalskiG
Twente
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1L. UnnerstallG
- 3R. PröpperD
- 6R. ZerroukiM
- 9W. WeghorstF
- 11D. RotsM
- 19Y. TahaM
- 27S. ØrjasæterM
- 28B. van RooijD
- 38M. BrunsD
- 42D. WeidmannM
- 43R. NijstadD
Substitutes
- 4M. KjøløM
- 7M. PjacaF
- 12Guilherme Martinho PeixotoD
- 16J. DrommelG
- 17F. ThorvaldsenF
- 20T. van den BeltM
- 22R. PasveerG
- 24K. KurowskiD
- 25Lucas Vennegoor of HesselinkF
- 26B. NagelM
- 29A. AdelgaardD
Qarabag
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kady Borges | M | 86 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Bruno Langa | D | 76 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Samuel Lobato | M | 70 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Musa Qurbanlı | F | 70 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | — |
| Olexiy Kashchuk | M | 102 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Jaly Mouaddib | M | 102 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/3 |
| Marko Janković | M | 102 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Matheus Silva | D | 102 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Bədavi Hüseynov(C) | D | 102 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bence Várkonyi | D | 102 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Martin Zlomislić | G | 102 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ali Bashirov | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hikmat Cabrayilzada | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateusz Kochalski | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bahlul Mustafazada | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shakhrudin Magomedaliyev | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joni Montiel | M | 16 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Bicalho | M | 32 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cebrail Makreckis | M | 32 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dani Bolt | D | 26 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Twente
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Bruns | D | 102 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| Daouda Weidmann | M | 97 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5/7 |
| Ramiz Zerrouki | M | 102 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | — |
| Daan Rots | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| Robin Pröpper(C) | D | 70 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sondre Ørjasæter | M | 70 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4/8 |
| Wout Weghorst | F | 102 | 7.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Ruud Nijstad | D | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Younes Taha | M | 102 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 2/4 |
| Bart van Rooij | D | 102 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lars Unnerstall | G | 102 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Krzysztof Kurowski | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Peixoto | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joël Drommel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Remko Pasveer | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Nagel | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Filip Thorvaldsen | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aske Adelgaard | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mathias Kjølø | M | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marko Pjaca | F | 32 | 7.6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Thomas Van den Belt | M | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink | F | 32 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Qarabag vs Twente?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Qarabag to win against Twente.
- What score did Fipster predict for Qarabag vs Twente?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Qarabag 2–1 Twente.
- What were the win probabilities for Qarabag vs Twente?
- Fipster's model gave Qarabag a 52% chance of winning, Twente a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 52% confidence — a medium-confidence call.