Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia

UEFA Europa League2nd Qualifying Round

Qarabag

Full Time
0–0
HT: 0–0

CSKA Sofia

Ref: Daniele Chiffi, ItalyTofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu, Baku · 31,850 cap
Fipster Pick
Home WinlowMiss
Qualifying — two-legged tieLeg 1 of 2
Aggregate:
Qarabag 0 0 CSKA Sofia (pens)
Advances:
CSKA Sofia

Match recap

Qarabag and CSKA Sofia drew 0–0 in their UEFA Europa League fixture.

Fipster’s pre-match call

Predicted

1-0 Qarabag win

Actual

0–0

✗ Missed

Outcome probability

Qarabag 35%Draw 33%CSKA Sofia 32%

This 2nd qualifying round fixture between Qarabag and CSKA Sofia promises a closely fought contest. Both sides have shown solid form in this competition, but the prediction leans towards a narrow home win.

Match factors

Form Momentumhigh

Z. Sawo's recent goal and assist form

Z. Sawo has scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists in Qarabag's last two matches, showing strong attacking form

Form Momentumhigh

I. Pittas' consistent attacking contributions

I. Pittas has scored and assisted multiple times in recent away fixtures, indicating good form

Statistical Edgehigh

Qarabag's defensive solidity at home

Qarabag has kept clean sheets in all 4 recent matches analyzed, conceding zero goals at home

Tactical Advantagemedium

Qarabag's attacking midfield creativity

Players like Kady and Sawo provide creative edge and goal threat, potentially exploiting CSKA Sofia's defense

Injury Impacthigh

No confirmed injuries for either team

Both teams have no confirmed out players, so full squads available for selection

The context

Qarabag have played four matches in this competition so far, remaining unbeaten with two wins and two draws, and impressively conceding no goals. CSKA Sofia have six matches under their belt with three wins, two draws, and one loss, scoring nine but conceding six. Historically, Qarabag have the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, winning two out of three encounters with one draw, and an average of just 0.7 goals per match between them.

Key insights

  • Z

    Z. Sawo

    Qarabag

    Z. Sawo has scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists in Qarabag's last two matches, showing strong attacking form.

    UEFA Europa League 26/274 goal involvements in last two matches (competition 3, 2026)

  • I

    I. Pittas

    CSKA Sofia

    I. Pittas has scored and assisted multiple times in recent away fixtures, indicating good form.

    UEFA Europa League 26/27Multiple goals and assists in recent away matches (competition 3, 2026)

  • K

    Kady

    Qarabag

    Kady provides creative edge and goal threat, potentially exploiting CSKA Sofia's defence.

    UEFA Europa League 26/27Higher assist involvement than league average midfielder (competition 3, 2026)

  • T

    T. Ivanov

    CSKA Sofia

    T. Ivanov is a key defender with above average tackling and interception rates, crucial to contain Qarabag's attack.

    UEFA Europa League 26/27Above average tackling and interceptions (competition 3, 2026)

Analysis

Qarabag's defensive solidity is a key factor here, having kept clean sheets in all their recent matches in this competition. Their attacking threat is spearheaded by Z. Sawo, who has been involved in four goals in the last two matches, combining pace and finishing to trouble CSKA Sofia's defence. Midfielder Kady adds creativity and has a higher assist involvement than the league average, providing a tactical edge. On the other side, CSKA Sofia's I. Pittas has been consistent with goals and assists, while S. Sensi orchestrates play from midfield. However, CSKA's defence, led by T. Ivanov, will have their work cut out to contain Qarabag's attacking duo.

Key facts

  1. 1.Qarabag have played 4 matches in this competition (W2 D2 L0, GF 6 / GA 0)
  2. 2.CSKA Sofia have played 6 matches in this competition (W3 D2 L1, GF 9 / GA 6)
  3. 3.In 3 head-to-head meetings, Qarabag have won 2, CSKA Sofia have won 0, with 1 draw
  4. 4.Head-to-head matches average 0.7 total goals (2 for Qarabag, 0 for CSKA Sofia)
  5. 5.Qarabag have kept clean sheets in all recent competition matches
  6. 6.Z. Sawo has been involved in 4 goals in Qarabag's last two matches (2 goals, 2 assists)
  7. 7.I. Pittas has contributed multiple goals and assists for CSKA Sofia recently
  8. 8.No confirmed injuries for either team, full squads available

Prediction

The most probable outcome is a narrow 1-0 victory for Qarabag. The aggregated probabilities favour a home win at 37.5%, with 1-0 being the single most likely scoreline. While the confidence in this prediction is low due to limited data, the defensive strengths and recent form tip the scales slightly in Qarabag's favour.

Player Insights

Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists

Home — Qarabag

No standout risk players flagged for Qarabag

Away — CSKA Sofia

Bruno Jordão

Bruno Jordão

Midfielder

CSKA Sofia

Discipline (Y+R*3)
4
7 played
7 starts
111 mins
~16 mins/game
S. Sensi

S. Sensi

Midfielder

CSKA Sofia

Discipline (Y+R*3)
4
7 played
7 starts
180 mins
~26 mins/game
T. Ivanov

T. Ivanov

Defender

CSKA Sofia

Discipline (Y+R*3)
3
8 played
8 starts
180 mins
~23 mins/game

The verdict

Expect a tight, tactical battle with few goals. Qarabag's defensive resilience and key attacking contributions should be enough to secure a slender win, but CSKA Sofia will not make it easy. A classic European qualifier where every chance counts.

Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 10:46 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163

Prediction Q&A

Who did Fipster predict to win Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia?
Fipster's AI model predicted Qarabag to win against CSKA Sofia.
What score did Fipster predict for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia?
Fipster predicted a final score of Qarabag 1–0 CSKA Sofia.
What were the win probabilities for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia?
Fipster's model gave Qarabag a 35% chance of winning, CSKA Sofia a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.
← Back to UEFA Europa League